Cowboys vs Dolphins Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 16: America's Most Fraudulent

In a game that has the makings of one of the most exciting ones we could see all season, the Dallas Cowboys are in Miami to take on the Dolphins in a game that many are calling the “Battle of the Frauds.” Fair or not, each team has made a habit of destroying inferior competition this season while they haven’t been at their best against upper-tier opponents.

NFL odds have tabbed the Fins as a 1.5-point favorite and the game has the highest total of the week at 50.5 points. Let’s dig into what we’ve seen from the teams this season as well as some strengths vs. weaknesses and I’ll provide you with my free NFL picks for Cowboys vs. Dolphins on December 24.

Cowboys vs Dolphins odds

Cowboys vs Dolphins predictions

You can’t analyze this matchup without taking each team’s home/away splits into consideration, especially those of the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas’ play on the road has been very concerning for a team that has Super Bowl aspirations. They flat out didn’t show up in Buffalo last week where they lost 31-10. That was their second no-show performance on the road against a top contender this season as they were previously destroyed by 32 in San Francisco. If that’s not enough red flags for you, they also lost in Arizona as an 11-point favorite.

While there’s no doubt that Dallas is an elite team at home where they remain undefeated and average 39.9 points per game, they’re average, at best, on the road. They rank 15th in scoring in away games and Dak Prescott sees his QB rating drop a staggering 38.3 points compared to at home.

Last week’s lopsided loss to the Bills is concerning, but the Cowboys have been great at bouncing back over the past few seasons. Since the start of the 2021 season, they’ve gone an impressive 12-1 ATS following a loss. This includes going 3-0 ATS this season, but this will be their first time as an underdog in this situation, where they’re 0-3 ATS on the year.

As for the Miami Dolphins, who are playing in their third straight game at home, they’ve certainly done their best work on their home field, and aside from that disgusting choke job against the Titans, they’ve been rock-solid. Their competition at home has been weak, to be fair, but the results are hard to knock with five wins of 14 or more points in seven games.

While Miami made out just fine without Tyreek Hill last week against the Jets, they’ll certainly need him back against a far superior opponent this week. When watching footage of Hill warming up before the Jets game, he looked like he’d be ready to go, but he chose not to play. Perhaps the Dolphins were playing things safe to get Hill to get closer to 100% for this game.

With or without Hill in the offense, the Dolphins will be just as dependent on their defense for this matchup and they look to be in much better form than Dallas’ D.

Miami’s defense has really come around and has allowed 21 or fewer points in eight of the last 10 games which is impressive when you consider that most of their opponents were forced into aggressive playscripts thanks to playing from behind. The Dolphins now rank fourth in yards allowed per play, third in QB pressure percentage, and are tied for first in offensive touchdowns allowed at home. 

Dallas, meanwhile, has allowed 35 and 31 points in games this month and ranks 27th in yards allowed per play over their last three games. They’re in the bottom eight in both yards allowed per rush and pass attempt, so this could really give the Dolphins' offense a chance to open up.

While the ‘Cowboys after a loss’ trend scares, I can’t ignore each team’s performance based on where they’ve played this season and also think Miami’s defense is playing better, so I’ll take them to cover the spread and finally beat a team with a winning record.

My best bet: Dolphins -1.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Cowboys vs Dolphins same-game parlay

Dolphins -1.5

Cowboys team total Under 24.5

Tony Pollard Under 57.5 rushing yards

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+224 +280 at FanDuel

Let’s pair that Dolphins spread with a few correlated bets that fade the Cowboys.

First up is the Under on their team total of 24.5. They stayed under this number in the road games in Buffalo, Philadelphia, Los Angeles (against the Chargers), San Francisco, and in Arizona. The offense just isn’t the same when they hit the road where they average 21.7 points. The only team to top this number in Miami was the Titans, but let’s keep in mind they only had 13 points with three minutes left in the game.

As for the Tony Pollard Under, the Dolphins rank fourth in yards allowed per rush attempt overall and second at home. Pollard has stayed under 57.5 rush yards in four of his last five road games where he’s averaging 44.6 yards per game.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Cowboys vs Dolphins spread and Over/Under analysis

This is the shortest favorite Miami has been at home all season with the previous shortest number being -6 against the Broncos (that one turned out alright). The Dolphins are on a nice stretch as a home favorite that’s seen them go 19-7-2 ATS going back to November of 2016. Under Mike McDaniel, they’ve gone 9-4 ATS as a home favorite with 11 outright wins.

This will be just the sixth regular-season game since October of last season where the Cowboys are an underdog and they haven’t fared well in this spot. They’re on an 0-5 ATS slide as an underdog with four of the losses coming by seven or more. 

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that this is the highest total of the week. It is a surprise though that only three of Miami’s seven home games this season have crossed 50 combined points despite Miami scoring 30 or more in five of the games. They haven’t exactly hosted a murderer's row of elite offenses though and Dallas should be able to contribute a little bit more to the scoring than the Jets (0), Raiders (13), and Giants (16) when they came to town.

Cowboys vs Dolphins betting trend to know

The Cowboys are 12-1 ATS after a loss since the start of the 2021 season. Find more NFL betting trends for Cowboys vs. Dolphins.

Cowboys vs Dolphins game info

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