The Atlanta Falcons have won four of their past five and host the reeling Dallas Cowboys at Mercedes-Benz Stadium with the chance to pad their lead in the NFC South on Sunday, November 3.
Dallas sandwiched its Week 7 bye with consecutive losses, and our top NFL picks and Cowboys vs. Falcons predictions expect Atlanta to take care of business at home in Week 9.
Cowboys vs Falcons SGP for Week 9
Falcons moneyline
Rico Dowdle Over 9.5 rushing attempts
Brandon Aubrey Over 1.5 field goals made
- Falcons moneyline
- Rico Dowdle Over 9.5 rushing attempts
- Brandon Aubrey Over 1.5 field goals made
Just how good the Atlanta Falcons are is left to be determined, but I’m confident they’re plenty good enough to beat the broken Dallas Cowboys at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Week 9.
Atlanta ranks higher in both offensive and defensive DVOA and PFF grades, and the Falcons have a higher EPA per play on offense while allowing a lower mark on defense. The Dallas stop unit is also particularly bad.
Badder than bad, even.
The Cowboys are 29th in defensive DVOA and allow the third-highest EPA per play, including the highest EPA per rush. It’s translated to allowing the second-most points per game (28.3).
Another reason I give Atlanta an edge is because Dallas head coach and play caller Mike McCarthy isn’t going to abandon the run. I’m expecting running back Rico Dowdle to handle a healthy workload after having double-digit carries in Weeks 4 and 5 as he ascended to being the clear No. 1 rusher.
The Week 6 blowout to the Detroit Lions limited Dowdle to just five totes, and he missed last week’s game against the San Francisco 49ers because of an illness. It was No. 2 back Ezekiel Elliott who handled 10 carries in Week 8, but I’m anticipating Dowdle to return to being the go-to rusher and handle double-digit carries again regardless of his effectiveness.
McCarthy’s stubbornness alongside the Falcons sporting a middling run defense positions Dowdle to have some success on the ground and go Over this total. Atlanta has allowed the 12th-most yards and fifth-highest rushing success rate allowed while also ranking 24th in tackle grade per PFF, after all.
Turning to the final leg of this same-game parlay, Cowboys kicker Brandon Aubrey had two or more field goals in each of the first six games of the season before hitting his lone field-goal attempt last week.
Aubrey has attempted 20 field goals and connected on 18 through seven games, and he’s also connected for eight of nine from 50 yards or longer. It also helps that the Cowboys turn red-zone visits into touchdowns at the second-lowest rate (42.1%) in the NFL.
I also value this SGP leg because it isn’t correlated with the Falcons moneyline, yet it still extends our odds nicely for a prop that’s trading at a -170 price as a straight bet.
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