Cowboys vs Giants Predictions and SNF Picks: Cooks Leaves His Mark in Dallas Debut

The 2023 NFL season's Sunday night staple commences when the New York Giants host the rival Dallas Cowboys under the prime time lights in Week 1.

Expectations for these NFC East foes, based on NFL odds, couldn't be more opposite: Many think Dallas can challenge for the conference crown — with some ambitious analysts even picking America’s Team to win the whole damn thing.

The Cowboys appear to be one of the best two-way teams in football (at least on paper), while the emotions are mixed in the Big Apple. The Giants are coming off a thrilling 2022 campaign in which NFL Coach of the Year winner Brian Daboll led the underdog G-Men to not only the postseason but a playoff win in the Wild Card Round.

However, New York was gifted with an easy schedule, which gets flipped on its ear this year. The Giants won't be able to breeze through their 2023 slate, and the heavy hits start with the arrival of Dallas on Sunday night.

I break down the SNF odds for this NFC East encounter and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Cowboys vs. Giants on September 10. Make sure to also check out our favorite SNF player props as well as our Dak Prescott prop picks before placing your wagers!

Cowboys vs Giants odds

Cowboys vs Giants predictions

Over my 18+ years working with Covers, I’ve been able to separate my sports bettor from my sports fandom.

Ever seen that Apple+ show “Severance”? Yeah, probably not…

Anyway, I’m a Cowboys fan. And as a fan this offseason I perused the potential players that could find their way to the Dallas Cowboys roster. One name at the top of that list was receiver Brandin Cooks.

I have a lot of respect for Cooks, especially for his ability to produce no matter the circumstance.

He’s caught passes from the likes of Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Deshaun Watson (when he was good but an undercover creep), while also being on the receiving end of throws from Jared Goff (when he stunk in L.A.), Tyrod Taylor, Kyle Allen, and Davis Mills.

No matter the quality of the quarterback, Cooks continued to catch balls.

Last season, Cooks played in only 13 games in a dead-end year for Houston and finished with 57 receptions for 699 yards. He was limited by a calf injury but finished off 2022 with a bang, snatching five balls for 106 yards and a touchdown in Week 18.

Well, my mental manifestation paid off like a real-life Pinocchio, with Dallas trading for Cooks in mid-March and giving Dak Prescott a speedier pass catcher to complement the big bodies of CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup.

It didn’t take long for Prescott and Cooks to connect during camp and new offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer was not only blown away by Cooks’ speed but also his leadership as a 10-year veteran.

Week 1 player projections are also high on Cooks’ Dallas debut, with almost every major model pegging him for 50+ yards against a receiving yard Over/Under of 40.5 (Over -115). His forecasted high flirts with 60 yards, while my number came out to 52.63 yards on Sunday night.

The Cowboys face a New York Giants defense that was 20th in EPA allowed per dropback last season, despite a schedule packed with pop-gun offenses. New York allowed the sixth-highest average yards per target and is really leaning into the pass rush to bail out a shallow secondary in 2023.

Cooks actually took on this Giants defense as a member of the Texans last November, bringing in four of seven balls thrown his way for only 37 yards — one of which was a 25-yard strike. The guy throwing him the ball was Davis Mills, who enjoyed a season-high 319 yards against New York’s porous pass defense.

Imagine what Cooks can do with Dak making those throws in Week 1. I’ve been doing it since March.

My best bet: Brandin Cooks Over 40.5 receiving yards (-115)

Cowboys vs Giants same-game parlay

Brandin Cooks Over 40.5 receiving yards

Dak Prescott Under 13.5 rushing yards

Cowboys moneyline

+525 at BetRivers

Cooks found instant chemistry with Prescott in camp and could take a chunk out this receiving yards total with one big strike. Almost every model calls for 50-plus yards with a low of 42, which still gets us Over the lower end of this total market.

Prescott got injured in Week 1 of last season and has to stay healthy if he’s going to get the Cowboys to the postseason. There aren’t any designed runs coming and the quick-hitting scheme will get the ball out fast instead of leaving him to scramble.

Dallas has absolutely owned this matchup, but for the sake of the SGP, we’ll keep it simple. The Cowboys have won 11 of their last dozen matchups with the G-Men dating back to 2017.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Cowboys vs Giants spread and Over/Under analysis

This classic matchup opened with Dallas set between -3 and -3.5 back in the spring and the spread hasn’t moved much, sticking to that lane as of Thursday morning. Operators are currently dealing Cowboys -3 at -119 or Giants +3.5 at -120.

According to BetMGM operations, 54% of the ticket count and 65% of the handle is grabbing the points with the home team. Our Covers Consensus numbers show a slight lean to the Giants as well with 52% of picks on the G-Men.

My NFL power ratings, which reflect the offseason betting markets as well as the schedule, install Dallas closer to -6.5. That said, these are a work in progress and there is a significant gap between these two teams in the overall ratings (Dallas No. 9, New York No. 21).

Maybe my projection isn’t so cooky considering the Cowboys have absolutely owned Big Blue in recent years. Dallas boasts an 11-1 straight up and 9-3 against the spread record against New York since 2017, including a 5-1 SU and ATS mark at MetLife Stadium.

The way offseason markets are swooning over Dallas, this Week 1 game should be a walk in the park. The Cowboys' backbone is the Dan Quinn-led defense, which has haunted the dreams of opposing quarterbacks the past two seasons.

Dallas causes all kinds of chaos, throwing one of the nastiest pass rushes at opponents. The Cowboys finished 2022 tops in pressure rate and totaled 54 sacks, which in turn hurried rival QBs into some errant throws. The Dallas secondary is a ball-hawking bunch, who have recorded 42 interceptions over the past two seasons and got better this summer with the addition of veteran corner Stephon Gilmore.

And then there’s the offense. The Cowboys have been a Top-10 team in EPA per play the past two seasons, but the offensive playcalling now lands on head coach Mike McCarthy after the departure of OC Kellen Moore.

Prescott was picked off a league-high 17 times in just 14 games overall in 2022, which has McCarthy and new OC Brian Schottenheimer installing a quick-hitting passing scheme. That would shorten Dak’s intended air yards from his average of 8.2 per attempt (10th highest) but also trim his bad throws, which is a metric he sat 12th in last season.

Is all of that too much for the G-Men? To steal a line from famous NYC rapper Method Man, the Giants were able to put on their gasoline boots and walk through hell last season.

New York went 8-4-1 SU and 12-1 ATS in one-score games, surpassed its expected season win total by Thanksgiving, and punched its ticket to the playoffs — thanks in large part to a soft entry into 2022, with only one true road game in the opening six weeks.

With books calling for another close one, considering the field goal spread, can Daboll & Co. recapture that magic in Week 1? It will need more from this defense, which will be fully exposed against a tougher schedule in 2023.

The Giants wrapped last year 28th in EPA allowed per play, including two losses to the Cowboys in which they allowed 23 points to a Cooper Rush-led attack and 28 points with Dak back on Thanksgiving. This stop unit was all bark and no bite — or all blitz and no sack — under defensive coordinator Wink Martindale. New York blitzed at a league-high 39.7% rate, but those extra bodies brought in just 41 sacks and helped create only 19 takeaways, six of which were INTs.

New York’s offense was efficient in 2022, sitting ninth in EPA per play but not designed to play from behind. QB Daniel Jones keeps defenses guessing with his ability to break for big runs, but his validity as a passer is still a question mark.

Jones was stymied by this Dallas defense in two meetings last year, completing less than 57% of his passes and taking eight sacks in the pair of losses, with one passing touchdown and one interception. He averaged only 5.89 yards per attempt in those games.

The total for Sunday Night Football opened at 46 points and is down to 45.5 across the industry. BetMGM is reporting 68% of early ticket count on the Under as well as 79% of the money banking on a lower-scoring game.

These rivals went 1-0-1 O/U in their NFC East contests in 2022 and are 6-3-1 O/U over their last 10 matchups going back to 2018. Dallas went 9-8 O/U in the regular season while New York posted a 7-9-1 O/U mark.

Cowboys vs Giants betting trend to know

New York is 1-11 SU and 3-9 ATS against the Cowboys since 2017, including a dismal 1-5 SU and ATS record at home in those rivalry clashes. Find more NFL betting trends for Cowboys vs. Giants.

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