The Dallas Cowboys enter Week 5 with plenty of questions to answer — and a primetime matchup against the gritty Pittsburgh Steelers puts a brighter spotlight on Dak Prescott.
My Cowboys vs. Steelers predictions point to Pittsburgh’s elite defense grinding out a tight win, and my NFL picks are riding big games from Justin Fields and Jake Ferguson.
Cowboys vs Steelers SNF predictions
- Steelers -2.5 (-115 at bet365)
- Under 44 (-110 at bet365)
- Ferguson Over 46.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet36)
- Field anytime touchdown (+160 at bet365)
Cowboys vs Steelers SNF best bets
Steelers -2.5
It’s rarely pretty, but the Pittsburgh Steelers keep finding ways to win. With T.J. Watt leading a ferocious defense, the Steelers are 3-1 ATS this season, and they’ve covered the spread in six of their last eight outings.
After what we’ve seen from the Dallas Cowboys over the past few weeks, I prefer laying the points with the hosts, who are 16-8-1 in their last 25 outings at Heinz Field.
Dallas had to cling on to beat a limited Giants team in Week 4 and enters what should be a physical matchup without key pass-rushers Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence.
That should give Fields more breathing room behind this Pittsburgh offensive line, and Chris Boswell has been lights when the Steelers get within range.
Ultimately, this is a bet on Watt & Co. pressuring Dak Prescott into just enough mistakes tonight.
Under 44
The Steelers aren’t built for high-scoring games, so it’s hardly surprising that the Under is 3-1 in their four outings this year, but Pittsburgh has settled on a formula that works, with an emphasis on ball protection and easy reads for Fields. That means long drives, a run-heavy game plan, and tiny totals.
The Steelers have scored 20 points or fewer in three of their contests — and critically, their defense has held three opponents to 10 points or fewer.
Given Dallas only put up 20 points against the Giants last Thursday, I have a hard time believing that Prescott has the weapons to dissect the Pittsburgh defense.
The Cowboys have only hit the second-half Over in one of their last six road games, and only the Jets are averaging fewer rushing yards per game than Dallas.
Jake Ferguson Over 46.5 receiving yards
With Brandin Cooks heading to the IR and the Cowboys struggling to get any traction in the ground game, the obvious question for Week 5 is: if not CeeDee Lamb, where is Prescott throwing the ball?
I bet that Jake Ferguson will step up again as the No. 2 option. He’s built great chemistry with Prescott, and he pulled in seven catches for 49 yards against the Giants last time out.
He's had 18 targets over the last two games, and I see him getting open on short routes to give Dallas an easy checkdown option to counter the Steelers’ persistent pass rush.
Lamb is sure to be blanketed by Pittsburgh defenders, and that should mean opportunities for other Cowboys receivers to grab a bigger share of the targets.
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Justin Fields anytime touchdown
While George Pickens is a dangerous red zone target, it’s a safe bet that the Steelers will stay true to the run near the goal line.
With Najee Harris still looking for his first touchdown of the season, I prefer these odds for Pittsburgh to call Fields’ number and capitalize on his elusive running.
Fields is coming off two rushing scores against the Colts last weekend, taking his tally to three this year, and I’m wagering on him to get into the end zone for a third straight game.
There may not be many scoring chances if this is the low-scoring scrap I anticipate, but this Fields prop represents solid value.
Cowboys vs Steelers odds
Cowboys vs Steelers game info
| Location: | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Sunday, 10-6-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
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