Cowboys vs Vikings Week 11 Picks and Predictions: Does Dallas Deserve Favorite Status?

The Dallas Cowboys will be road favorites this weekend when they visit the 8-1 Minnesota Vikings in a battle between two of the top teams in the NFC on Sunday.

The Vikings have won seven straight games and are coming off a thrilling 33-30 victory over the Buffalo Bills last week. The Cowboys dropped a disappointing game in Green Bay last week, as the Packers beat them 31-28 in overtime.

Minnesota is red hot and looks to be one of the best teams in the league, yet finds itself as an underdog at home. We’ll discuss whether that’s warranted in our NFL picks and predictions for Cowboys vs. Vikings.

Cowboys vs Vikings best odds

Cowboys vs Vikings picks and predictions

If there was any question as to whether the Vikings are for real, that should have been answered last Sunday when Minnesota beat the Bills in Buffalo. Even with an 8-1 record, nobody is going overboard — the Vikings are still the fifth choice in Super Bowl odds at most sites, with DraftKings listing Minnesota at +1,200 — but the Vikings now hold a five-game lead in the NFC North, and will probably be battling the Philadelphia Eagles for a first-round bye in the playoffs.

While Minnesota hasn’t excelled in any particular area, nobody has been able to expose any glaring weaknesses in the Vikings, either. Kirk Cousins has been solid, throwing for 14 touchdowns and 2,356 yards over the first nine games of the season. Running back Dalvin Cook has turned it on as of late, scoring six touchdowns in his last five games. And wide receiver Justin Jefferson went off last week, catching nine balls for 193 yards and a touchdown in the win over the Bills.

The Vikings are allowing lots of yardage on defense, particularly through the air. But that hasn’t translated into a whole lot of scoring, as opponents are averaging just 21.2 points per game against them. Minnesota has been better against the run, giving up 4.5 yards per carry this year to rank right at league average. That will be important against a Cowboys team that likes to run the ball and expects to have star running back Ezekiel Elliott back in action on Sunday.

Given all those numbers and what looks to be a reasonably favorable matchup for Minnesota, it’s fair to ask why the Vikings are home dogs in this game. There’s no doubt that the Cowboys are good this year, particularly on defense. They’ve held opponents to just 18.2 points per game, fifth-best in the NFL. Dak Prescott has played well since his return from injury, though he did throw two interceptions in the surprising loss to Green Bay last weekend.

Overall, Dallas has been a solid, playoff-level team so far this season. The Cowboys haven’t played much of a schedule, but they do have a strong road win over the New York Giants, and played the 8-1 Philadelphia Eagles tough last month.

Yet none of that explains why this team should be favored on the road over the Vikings. There may still be some legitimate skepticism about how good Minnesota really is. But there shouldn’t be any doubt that the Vikings are at least in the same ballpark in terms of talent and ability as the Cowboys, and might be a touch better. They’re also playing at home, which should be enough to give them a slight edge.

The Cowboys are only favored by 1.5 points in this matchup, and I’m not interested in taking that handicap when I can get better odds on Minnesota winning the game outright. Let’s back the Vikings to go to 9-1 and further cement their status as a Super Bowl contender on Sunday.

My best bet: Vikings moneyline (+110 at Bet99)

Cowboys vs Vikings spread analysis

The Cowboys opened as a one-point favorite in Sunday’s game. Most books have since moved the line to Dallas -1.5, and you can even find -2.5 at some sites.

I’ve already talked above about why I like Minnesota in this game. Home underdogs are always tempting bets, and when you analyze these two teams, you can easily make the case that the 

Vikings should be the outright favorite by a point or two.

With that in mind, my obvious recommendation on the spread is to also take the Vikings, getting as many points as you can. However, I think taking the added value on the moneyline is better than getting 1.5 or even 2.5 points on the spread. When we can’t even get the bonus of covering if Minnesota loses by a field goal, it’s hard to justify passing up the betting odds on them winning outright.

If you’re looking for a reason to take the Cowboys, you might point to the fact that they’re 6-3 against the spread on the season, and that they’re 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games. And if you want to bet on Dallas, the spread is definitely the way to do it, for the same reasons why I don’t want the points with Minnesota. However, my clear pick here is the Vikings, no matter how you choose to bet on them.

Cowboys vs Vikings Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under for this game started at 47 points. Bettors have taken that number up, and the consensus total now sits at 48.5 as of Friday night.

These two teams have both shown some offensive firepower as of late. The Cowboys have scored at least 20 points in eight straight games, and put up 28 even in their loss to the Packers last weekend. One week earlier, they scorched the Chicago Bears for 49 points.

Meanwhile, the Vikings have scored 33 points or more in two of their past three games. Minnesota has scored at least 20 points in every game this year as well.

That means we’re starting with two consistent — if not explosive — offenses. We can then add in some key injuries on defense, particularly for the Cowboys. Dallas defensive end Demarcus Lawrence is limited by foot and knee issues, cornerback Anthony Brown is recovering from a concussion, and linebacker Anthony Barr is dealing with a hamstring injury. 

None of these are fatal blows, but they could slow down a Cowboys defense that has normally been able to harass opposing quarterbacks to the tune of 35 sacks, best in the NFL. Dallas already struggles against the run, allowing 143.1 yards per game on the ground. 

Even at the best of times, I think I’d be interested in the Over here, as it’s likely that these teams play a close game that goes easily into the 20s on both sides. With the Cowboys perhaps hampered a bit on defense, I have even more faith in the Vikings offense than normal. The Over is the play in this game.

Cowboys vs Vikings betting trend to know

The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between the Cowboys and Vikings. Find more NFL betting trends for Cowboys vs. Vikings.

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