The Dallas Cowboys have found themselves in their first funk of the year, dropping two straight games heading into their Saturday Night Football matchup against the Detroit Lions. Dak Prescott will try to end the mini-losing streak against the NFC North champs in what could easily be a preview of a playoff matchup.
The Cowboys come into the matchup as a home favorite in the Week 17 odds. Prescott should play a huge role in any Dallas win, as the NFL’s leader in touchdown passes will go up against a Lions defense that has been mediocre against opposing quarterbacks.
Read on to find out which bets I’ll be making as we dig into the Dak Prescott odds in my free NFL picks for Lions vs. Cowboys on Saturday, December 30.
If you want more analysis of the Saturday Night Football odds matchup, be sure to check out our Lions vs. Cowboys predictions as well as our Saturday Night Football player prop picks!
Dak Prescott prop picks
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Dak Prescott prop pick
Under 0.5 interceptions (-112)
Dak Prescott has earned most of his accolades this year due to his prodigious touchdown numbers and ability to move the ball. Prescott has thrown for 30 scores and also ranks fifth in the league with 3,892 yards passing. Those are numbers that almost any quarterback in any era would take in a heartbeat.
But there’s another aspect to success in which Prescott has been successful. The Dallas Cowboys quarterback has thrown just seven interceptions this season, including just one in his last six games. That’s the kind of ball control that prominent quarterbacks like Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts haven’t been able to achieve this season.
As good as the Detroit Lions offense has been this year, it hasn’t been able to match that success on the defensive end. While the Lions have been able to contain the opposing running game, quarterbacks have been fairly successful against them, throwing for seven yards per attempt. Considering how well Prescott has been throwing the ball, we can expect Dallas to look to exploit this as much as possible on Saturday.
Some teams overcome numbers like these with a dominant pass rush or the ability to generate turnovers. However, Detroit ranks in the bottom half of the league in sacks and has only generated 13 interceptions on the year. Not only are teams efficient in the passing game against the Lions, but they haven’t found a way to punish quarterbacks for throwing the ball down the field, either.
We’re taking one of the most efficient and protective quarterbacks in the league and putting him up against a team that hasn’t done much to stop opposing passing games. For the most part, sportsbooks have taken this into account, but Prescott’s interceptions prop still looks generous at many sites. I’m predicting that he’ll manage to remain turnover-free through the air. Let’s take the Under.
Prop: Under 0.5 interceptions (-112 at Unibet)
Dak Prescott same-game parlay
Dak Prescott Under 0.5 interceptions
Dak Prescott Over 2.5 passing TDs
Cowboys moneyline
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While I think that the best bet of the night is to predict Prescott will complete a clean game, the Cowboys quarterback will likely excel in other areas as well. If he does, that should spell success for Dallas as well.
I’m going to start by adding Prescott to throw Over 2.5 passing touchdowns on Saturday night. That’s a hefty total, and even Prescott hasn’t been able to hit 3+ TDs regularly. That said, he has gotten to that total in five of his last nine games, so this is hardly a shot in the dark.
That’s especially true against a Lions' defense that can be attacked through the air. Dallas hasn’t done much scoring on the ground this year, compiling just 13 rushing touchdowns on the season. The Cowboys are already inclined to push the ball in the passing game, and that’s clearly been the winning game plan against the Lions this season. Three passing touchdowns are definitely within reach for Prescott this week.
I also like the Cowboys to bounce back this week and snap their two-game losing streak. When Dallas has struggled this year, they’ve done so away from home. At AT&T Stadium, the Cowboys are a perfect 7-0 on the year, including a dominant 33-13 win over the Philadelphia Eagles just three weeks ago.
While the Lions have been solid on the road, they only have one signature win away from home: their opening night 21-10 triumph over the Kansas City Chiefs. The Ravens took care of Detroit 38-6 in Baltimore, and even the lowly Chicago Bears picked up a home win over the Lions a couple of weeks ago by two touchdowns.
The Cowboys look to be the slightly better team here on a neutral field, and their home-field advantage tilts the scales just a bit more in their favor. I’m closing out my SGP by picking Dallas to win straight up on Saturday
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