Expectations are always high in the Big D, and the Dallas Cowboys’ 2022 NFL odds reflect those aspirations, fueled by one of the softest schedules in the NFL and a feverish public betting fanbase.
Warranted or not, the Cowboys’ futures have them pegged for the playoffs as slim favorites to win the NFC East with a double-digit win total. In a twist from past seasons, if Dallas is going to live up to the hype, it won’t be because of its star-studded skill positions but rather an opportunistic stop unit headlined by a pair of the most promising young defenders in the league.
Here’s your NFL betting preview for the Dallas Cowboys.
Dallas Cowboys futures odds
| Futures bet | Odds |
|---|---|
| To win Super Bowl | +1,800 |
| To win conference | +850 |
| To win division | +135 |
| Season Win Total O/U | 10 (Over -110) |
| To Make Playoffs | Yes -250 / No +195 |
Best futures bet: Win NFC East (+135)
The Cowboys opened as +110 faves to win the NFC East in 2022, which would make them the first back-to-back champs for the division since the Philadelphia Eagles in 2003-2004.
The rival Eagles have been the offseason darling for early-bird bettors, moving from +250 to +165 to claim the division crown, which has, in turn, tacked on about 25 cents to Dallas’ division price. Dak Prescott is still the best quarterback in the NFC East, with questions remaining around Jalen Hurts’ maturation and Carson Wentz’s return to the division. And then there’s Daniel Jones…
Dallas backers will hang on tight for a torturous home stretch with three of the final four games on the road, save for a Week 16 home date with the Eagles. That contest could decide the NFC East and it sets up well for the Cowboys (-3.5), as it’s Philly’s third straight road game, played on a short week (Saturday), and lands on Xmas Eve.
Dallas Cowboys betting overview
What will win bets: Star power
Dallas has a number of guys who can sell jerseys and swing a game. Prescott finished last season among the Top 5 in a number of advanced QB metrics (No. 3 in QB DVOA at Football Outsiders), and while his receiving corps isn’t as loaded in 2022, he’s still a guy who can carry the team. That’s doubly true if WR CeeDee Lamb makes the leap to an elite receiver.
The brightest stars on the other side of the ball greatly impacted outcomes last year. Linebacker Micah Parsons and CB Trevon Diggs dialed up game-changing plays (combined 13 sacks, 3 FF, 11 INTs, 2 TDs) that helped make the Cowboys the best bet in the NFL with a 13-4 ATS record in the regular season.
What will lose bets: Defensive regression
Holding on to defensive coordinator Dan Quinn was a big offseason win, as this stop unit is the heart and soul of the organization. That said, repeating the chaos caused in 2021 is a very tall task, even with those standouts mentioned above. The Cowboys stop unit wowed with a plus-14 turnover differential, leading the league in interceptions (26) last season.
But when Big D wasn’t snatching wayward passes, it was giving up chunk yardage (29th in yards per completion allowed). It’s a high-risk/high-reward approach from Quinn, and those dangerous defenders won’t be catching opponents by surprise in 2022. Takeaways are tough to replicate game-to-game, and we often see teams with extreme positive turnover differential suffer steep regression the following year.
Dallas didn’t face the toughest slate of QBs in 2021, and four of its five losses did come to guys named Brady, Mahomes, Carr, and Murray.
Dallas Cowboys game-by-game odds
Dallas is the betting favorite in 11 games this season, with a pair of contests sitting at pick’em. Splitting the difference on those two toss-ups, the Cowboys’ lookahead lines have them posting 12 wins, which is two more than the Vegas total of 10 (Over -110).
Seven of those games have Dallas inside a field goal on either side of the spread (+/-), an ATS window that has produced a 7-15 SU mark and 5-17 ATS count since 2016 (Prescott’s rookie year). On the flip of this, America’s Team is a favorite of -6 or more in five games, with the Cowboys owning a 23-5 SU and 20-7-1 ATS record when laying six or more points the past six seasons.
The standard strength of schedule (based on 2021 win percentage) hands Dallas the weakest slate of foes (T-31 in SOS with Philadelphia), and my QB SOS (based on strength of opposing QBs) puts the Cowboys up against the 29th toughest lineup of passers.
| Week | Opponent | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs. Tampa Bay | +2 | 52 |
| 2 | vs. Cincinnati | -1.5 | 50 |
| 3 | @ N.Y. Giants | -4.5 | 47.5 |
| 4 | vs. Washington | -6.5 | 48 |
| 5 | @ L.A. Rams | +3.5 | 51.5 |
| 6 | @ Philadelphia | PK | 49.5 |
| 7 | vs. Detroit | -7.5 | 49 |
| 8 | vs. Chicago | -7.5 | 47.5 |
| 9 | BYE | ||
| 10 | @ Green Bay | +4.5 | 50 |
| 11 | @ Minnesota | PK | 49 |
| 12 | vs. N.Y. Giants | -7 | 47.5 |
| 13 | vs. Indianapolis | -2.5 | 48.5 |
| 14 | vs. Houston | -8 | 48 |
| 15 | @ Jacksonville | -3.5 | 48.5 |
| 16 | vs. Philadelphia | -3.5 | 49.5 |
| 17 | @ Tennessee | +1.5 | 48 |
| 18 | @ Washington | -2.5 | 44 |
Dallas Cowboys pro betting insights
Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)
The Cowboys were an Under bet for me at 10.5 wins, due to the likely turnover regression and downgrades at wide receiver this off-season. Mike McCarthy is likely coaching his last season in Dallas.
Catch the Hitman NFL Release Show on Covers every Thursday and Friday throughout the NFL season!
Adam Chernoff, The Simple Handicap podcast (@adamchernoff)
Dallas Cowboys early season forecast
We’ll quickly find out if Dallas’ defense is for real in the opening two weeks, with Tom Brady and Joe Burrow visiting Jerry’s World to start the season.
The Cowboys have attracted early action for their return Week 1 matchup with the Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football, slimming the spread from +3 to +2 this summer. Dallas is 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS as a home underdog over the past six seasons.
That Over/Under total, however, is a towering 52 points and tells the tale of an offensive shootout. Tampa Bay no longer has TE Rob Gronkowski (who torched Dallas for 90 yards and two TDs in Week 1 last year) and is holding out hope that WR Chris Godwin is cleared for the opener after tearing his ACL in December.
Dallas is a slight favorite (from -1.5 to -2.5) hosting the AFC champion Bengals in Week 2. This spread could close with the Cowboys as home pups once again, considering Cincinnati is 6.5-point chalk versus Pittsburgh in Week 1.
If Dallas drops the opener and the Bengals roll the Steelers, classic early-season reaction will flip this spread on its ear. Another lofty total is on tap at 50 points. The Cowboys are 9-16 O/U in non-conference clashes since 2016. A familiar foe awaits in Week 3, with the Cowboys (-4) hitting the highway for the road opener versus the Giants on Monday Night Football.
New York has garnered summer buzz among sharp NFL bettors. With Tennessee and Carolina kicking off their season, the G-Men could be in better shape than you think and starting to find traction under new head coach Brian Daboll by Sept. 26. Dallas has dominated this NFC East series since Dak showed up, going 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS versus Big Blue.
Dallas Cowboys spot bet
Week 6: @ Philadelphia (PK, 49.5)
The Cowboys are living out of a suitcase between Week 3 and Week 6 with three of four games coming on the road and those four contests crammed into just three weeks.
Dallas is in East Rutherford for MNF in Week 3, plays Washington at home on short prep in Week 4, and travels to L.A. to play the Super Bowl champion Rams in Week 5 before this nasty stretch of sked culminates in Philadelphia for Sunday Night Football on Oct. 16.
Bookies have this vital NFC East matchup pegged as a pick’em, with the Cowboys not only playing their second straight road game but their third roadie in four weeks and lining up a potential letdown after the date in L.A. The Linc will be well oiled for the primetime rivalry, and considering Philly’s cushy start (DET, MIN, WAS, JAX, ARZ), this is a scary spot for Big D.
Dallas Cowboys totals tip
The Cowboys’ 2021 Over/Under results flipped midway through the year as the defense found its footing, but the offense also started to sputter as the run game dissolved and Prescott battled a calf injury. Dallas was 5-1 Over/Under in the opening six games and 3-7 O/U in the final 11 outings, with two of those Over results coming versus the B Teams of Washington and Philadelphia.
One of the big questions heading into 2022 — and potentially the key to Cowboys’ totals — is how potent the Dallas ground game will be. Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard make up one of the best backfield pairs in the business and posted great numbers in the first six games of 2021 (164 run yards/game) before seeing their handoffs dwindle in the final 11 outings (103 rush yards per game).
The Cowboys seem to click best with that balanced playbook and run one of the fastest offenses in the NFL, ranking No. 2 in seconds per play last season (26.3). If the defense does regress and those takeaways aren’t there to throw a wrench in opposing offenses, the Cowboys will find themselves in a few firefights.
Oddsmakers have four Dallas games tagged with totals of 50-plus and four more at 49 or 49.5 points. The fast track inside AT&T Stadium continues to turn out Over winners whenever the Boys are in Arlington, with Dallas going 5-3 O/U at home in 2021 and a collective 21-11 O/U (66% Overs) in regular season competition since 2018. The Cowboys averaged 8.7 more points as hosts than as visitors in that span.
Star power: Dak Prescott props
| Prop | Odds |
| MVP | +1,600 |
| Offensive player of the year | +4,000 |
| Passing Leader | +1,400 |
| Passing TD Leader | +1,400 |
| Passing Yards Total | 4,350.5 (Under -120) |
| Passing TD Total | 31.5 |
Best prop: Under 31.5 passing touchdowns (-110)
A shirtless pic of Dak Prescott training with his dudes in Miami had Cowboys fans swooning this summer. And honestly, they should be excited, considering it’s been a minute since Dak had a full offseason to prep.
However, if we’re buying into the Dallas defense taking a step back in 2022, that means fewer takeaways and fewer extra possessions (with good field position) for an offense that ranked second in plays per game and eighth in red zone visits last season.
Prescott passed for 37 touchdowns in 2021, thanks in large part to a late-season surge in which he connected for 12 TDs in the final three games of the regular season — a combined nine coming against a COVID-ravaged WFT and a Philadelphia squad resting its starters in Week 18.
The Cowboys receiving corps will miss Amari Cooper (8 TDs) and Cedrick Wilson (6 TDs) and won’t have Michael Gallup back until at least October. That leaves Prescott with Lamb, TE Dalton Schultz, and new faces James Washington and Jalen Tolbert to start the season.
Dallas Cowboys trend to know
Dallas was a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS in NFC East action last season, and save for the disastrous 2020 campaign, in which Prescott suffered a season-ending broken leg in Week 5, the Cowboys have dominated the division.
Taking 2020 out of the equation (in which Dallas went 2-4 SU/1-5 ATS with a clown car of QBs vs. NFC East), the team is 22-3 SU and 21-4 ATS in divisional play since 2017. That includes an 11-1 SU and ATS record in divisional home games. Quality of quarterback plays a big role in that record, as Dallas’ NFC East brethren have marched out some sad-sack passers in that span.
Prescott is still head and shoulders above his 2022 counterparts, but improvement is expected from Hurts, and Wentz should be a tick better in Washington. And then there’s Jones…
Dallas' Home Division Games
- Week 4 vs. Washington (-6.5)
- Week 12 vs. N.Y. Giants (-7)
- Week 16 vs. Philadelphia (-3.5)
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