The Dallas Cowboys have gone from Super Bowl contender to long-shot seemingly overnight after an ugly Week 1 where they were shut down by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers while losing franchise quarterback Dak Prescott to a thumb injury.
Although Week 1 in the NFL can sometimes lead to overreactions from oddsmakers and the betting public, there are a few reasons why "America's Team" has moved from +2,000 to +5,000 on the futures board at one prominent sportsbook.
With uncertainty surrounding Prescott's long-term outlook, there is plenty of volatility in the Super Bowl odds betting market which we break down heading into NFL Week 2.
Latest Dallas Cowboys Super Bowl odds
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| To win Super Bowl | +5,000 |
| To win division | +600 |
| To make playoffs | +250 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of September 13, 2022.
Latest Dallas Cowboys odds movement
Entering Week 1, the Cowboys were tied for ninth on the Super Bowl odds board at +2,000 on FanDuel. Those odds have since fallen all the way to +5,000 after the Cowboys were stomped 19-3 by the Bucs on Sunday and Prescott fractured the thumb on his throwing hand.
There's a significant drop-off from Prescott to backup QB Cooper Rush, who completed seven of 13 passes for 64 yards after coming on in relief. The 28-year-old led the Cowboys to a win against the Minnesota Vikings in his first career start last year, but his arm strength isn't NFL caliber and he isn't a viable long-term option.
It's worth mentioning that even before his injury, Prescott looked awful completing just 14 of 29 passes for 134 yards and a pick. Sure, the Cowboys were facing a strong Bucs defense, but that's no excuse for mustering just 244 yards and 3.8 yards per play. Especially for a team that has relied on its explosive offense to win games the last few years and already had major question marks on that side of the ball.
It's hard to believe the #Cowboys never made it inside the TB 30-yard line on Sunday.
— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) September 13, 2022
That is a level of incompentance on offense that we haven't seen in decades from Dallas.
Dallas traded away wide receiver Amari Cooper for a bag of peanuts in the offseason while running back Ezekiel Elliot has been in decline for years. Most concerning is the state of the Cowboys' patchwork offensive line which lost All-Pro left tackle Tyron Smith to a long-term injury in August and had left guard Connor McGovern exit Sunday's contest with an ankle injury.
Not all sportsbooks have soured on the Cowboys' Super Bowl chances, with DraftKings still plugging them at +2,200 as of noon ET on Tuesday.
One team that has seen its Super Bowl odds increase is Dallas' AFC East rival, Philadelphia. The Eagles have shifted from +2,000 to +1,300 at FanDuel after beating Detroit 38-35 in Week 1.
The Cowboys and Eagles entered the season with almost identical odds of winning the division, but the Eagles are now -150 favorites while the Cowboys have fallen to fourth-place at +600, trailing both the Washington Commanders (+460) and New York Giants (+500) who opened their season with victories.
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Dallas Cowboys odds outlook
With a looming date against the Cincinnati Bengals, last year's Super Bowl runners-up, the Cowboys could find themselves in an 0-2 hole and with three of their next four games against the Giants, Commanders, and Eagles they could find themselves buried at the bottom of the NFC East by the time Prescott is back in the lineup.
The timeline of Prescott's recovery from thumb surgery seems all over the map. Initial reports suggested a 6-8 week layoff, but Cowboys owner and GM Jerry Jones has been optimistic about his franchise QB returning within four weeks.
Jerry Jones said on 105.3 The Fan that the Cowboys won’t put Dak Prescott on injured reserve and that he thinks his injured quarterback could return within the next four games.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 13, 2022
Even if Prescott comes back that soon, his ability to throw will likely be compromised. Don't be surprised if we see a similar progression to Russell Wilson last season, when the former Seahawks star struggled for several weeks after rushing back from finger surgery on his throwing hand.
The Cowboys' Super Bowl odds won't be getting any better in the next few weeks, and outliers like DraftKings will likely follow the other books soon enough.
Dallas Cowboys upcoming schedule
Week 3 @ New York Giants (Monday, September 26, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Week 4 vs. Washington Commanders (Sunday, October 2, 1:00 p.m. ET
