A.J. Brown and the Philadelphia Eagles face off against the Kansas City Chiefs at Super Bowl 59 on Sunday.
The biggest question bettors have for the Philly WR is "how many receiving yards will A.J. Brown get?" He has been hindered by a knee injury since December but he broke out in the NFC Championship — and I'm betting on him to have a big game in New Orleans.
I break down the A.J. Brown odds and bring you my best NFL picks for the superstar receiver at Super Bowl 59.
A.J. Brown predictions and picks for Super Bowl 59
- Best bet
A.J. Brown Over 71.5 receiving yards
(-125 at Caesars) - SGP pick
A.J. Brown Over 71.5 receiving yards
Jalen Hurts Over 27.5 pass attempts
A.J. Brown anytime TD
(+500 at Caesars)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Will A.J. Brown Go Over his receiving yardage prop on Sunday?
My best bet
A.J. Brown Over 71.5 receiving yards (-125 at Caesars)
My analysis
A.J. Brown has been banged up this season but he still had more than 80 receiving yards in eight of 13 regular season games.
Brown struggled in the Wild Card Round against the Packers (one catch for just 10 yards) and in the Divisional Round versus the Rams (two catches for 14 yards). That said, he was still targeted seven times against the Rams and the heavy snow coupled with an ongoing knee injury clearly affected him.
He looked more like usual self in the NFC Championship, reeling in six of eight targets for 86 yards and a score. With the extra week off before the Super Bowl, Brown should be closer to full strength. Playing inside a dome will make things more conducive for the Philadelphia Eagles to throw the ball, too.
Keep in mind that the Eagles passing game has been limited due to game script and weather in several contests this season. They've also leaned heavily on superstar running back Saquon Barkley, but I'm expecting the Kansas City Chiefs to focus on containing the run, which should open things up for Philadelphia's aerial attack.
Brown has played six games where the Eagles have thrown the ball 25+ times, and he has averaged 10 targets and 100 yards per game in those contests.
The Chiefs also play man coverage at Top-10 rate and Brown leads the NFL with 4.04 yards per route run against man thanks to a sky-high 37.4% target rate. Brown had six receptions for 96 yards and a touchdown when these teams clashed in the Super Bowl two years ago, and I'm counting on him to have success against at SB 59.
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A.J. Brown same-game parlay for Chiefs vs Eagles
A.J. Brown Over 71.5 receiving yards
Jalen Hurts Over 27.5 pass attempts
A.J. Brown anytime TD
The Eagles blew out multiple opponents this season, which is partially why Jalen Hurts' pass attempts were so low. However, the short spread for the Super Bowl suggests a highly-competitive contest which should keep the Eagles passing, especially if the Chiefs load up to stop the run.
Brown has a 36.7% target share in the red zone and has reeled in a touchdown in four of his last six games. Since we're already betting on a big game for Brown, we may as well back him to add a TD to that in this SGP.
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