The NFL playoff bracket is slimming with Divisional Round matchups on the board.
By this point in the season, we know these elite teams inside and out, and so do the bookies.
Finding your edge against the oddsmakers means getting the best number for your spread and total bets. That could mean snatching up the opening odds now or waiting for market movement later in the week.
Here are my “Bet Now, Bet Later” lines and NFL picks for the Divisional Round odds.
Divisional Round bet now, bet later picks
- Spread TBD: Bet Now
- Texans (+7.5) at Chiefs: Bet Later
- Ravens at Bills (Over 51): Bet Now
- Total TBD: Bet Later
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Spread to Bet Now: TBD
Check back later for Jason Logan's favorite spread to bet right now.
Houston Texans (+7.5) at Kansas City Chiefs: Bet Later
The Houston Texans took down one AFC West member in the Wild Card Round and now set their sights on another, traveling to Arrowhead Stadium for the Divisional Round.
Houston wasn’t overly impressive in that victory over the L.A. Chargers, with many people believing the Bolts beat themselves with a classic case of “Chargering.” That sentiment has the Texans opening as 7.5-point pups at the Kansas City Chiefs and growing to +8.5 in the minutes after opening.
With the spread parked at the dead number, books are going to move quickly on early opinion. That opinion will likely be very positive for the Chiefs, who received a bye into the second round and hold the best home-field edge in football.
If — and when — one-sided action comes in on KC, operators won’t wait and this spread could flirt with Texans +10 later in the week. Just look at the Wild Card spread for Steelers-Ravens last week.
If you think Houston can at least make it competitive, hold on and wait for the 10-point cushion.
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (Over 51): Bet Now
This is the Divisional Round showdown we all wanted. Part of that wish is related to MVP-worthy quarterbacks Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson going head-to-head, so this total is going up.
Select books opened this Over/Under as short as 51 points — a crucial number in total betting — with most shops starting at 51.5 and -115 juice on the Over, indicating this total isn’t done growing.
Both the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills flexed with offensive muscle in the Wild Card Round, stomping out quality defensive opponents and averaging 6.4 and 6.5 yards per play, respectively.
Defensively, they gave up a collective 21 points, but their Wild Card foes didn’t exactly test them too much. Russell Wilson and the Steelers recorded only 11 first downs while Bo Nix and the Broncos threatened in the first half but stalled out in the final 30 minutes.
These two contenders clashed way back in Week 4, with Baltimore busting Buffalo 35-10 and finishing Under the closing total of 47.5 points. It was a bad day at the office for Allen & Co. and this offense is a well-oiled machine at this point.
If you like the Over, seek out that 51-point total at bet it now.
Total to Bet Later: TBD
Check back later for Jason Logan's favorite Over/Under to bet on later in the week.
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