The touchdown market has become one of the most popular and potentially profitable props in the NFL betting world. Each week, we’re going to throw down three to four units as we try to uncover some of the best weekly NFL TD props and dig into the matchups that surround them.
The NFL Divisional Round is here and we’re littering the board including games on Saturday and Sunday. We’re throwing darts at the Bills’ receivers again, getting a share of the K.C. backfield, getting Brady’s favorite target and going with the No. 2 option in Green Bay.
Without further adieu, our Divisional Round touchdown prop picks.
NFL Divisional Round touchdown props
- Allen Lazard anytime TD
- Gabriel Davis anytime TD
- Jerick McKinnon anytime TD
- Rob Gronkowski anytime TD
- Cameron Brate anytime TD
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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NFL Divisional Round TD props
Allen Lazard anytime TD (+230 at betMGM)
Allen Lazard has become Aaron Rodgers’ No. 2 receiver and is seeing roughly 85% of the team’s snaps. Since Week 14, he has amassed five touchdowns in as many games and topped 70 yards in three of them. He has also seen a ton of attention in the red zone, as his eight targets are just under Davante Adams' 10.
The weakness of the San Francisco defense is in the secondary, as it’s susceptible to big plays and allows the seventh-most receptions of 15 yards or more in the league. Aaron Rodgers also averages nearly 40 yards more at home and 2.5 passing touchdowns per game. San Francisco is coming from Dallas last week and hasn’t played a cold-weather game yet this season.
BetMGM has the best Lazard TD price at +230 and with Davanta Adams at -155 to score a TD, Lazard is offering great value for a player who has been getting plenty of attention near the goal line of late. Randall Cobbs' addition won't cut into Lazard's snaps.
Gabriel Davis anytime TD (+300 at DraftKings)
The Bills and Chiefs are currently sitting with a game total of 54 in what is projected to be a Divisional Round shootout at Arrowhead Stadium. Josh Allen has one of the deepest receiving groups in the playoffs and projecting which one of Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, Dawson Knox, and Emmanuel Sanders is going to hit their TD prop is problematic from a handicapping perspective.
Knox is always a favorite, as the tight end has nine TDs on the season and his TD is best priced at +200 (PointsBet) heading into the weekend. He also roasted the Chiefs for over 100 yards and a score back in Week 5. We aren’t saying no to a Knox TD, but we like the price of Gabriel Davis a little better.
Davis has been a stud on the outside opposite Diggs and has five TDs over his last six games. He has surpassed Sanders on the depth chart and has played the most snaps at receiver since Week 14. He catches the ball further downfield than Diggs and also racks up more yards after the catch. Being priced at +300, which is near the bottom of the list for Buffalo receivers, is a steal for possibly Allen’s newest favorite RZ target.
His role inside the 20 is becoming important for this offense and he has just as many RZ targets as Diggs since Week 13. At 6-foot-3, Davis is Allen’s tallest option at receiver, and in the last meeting Sanders burnt this defense for two scores and now Davis has taken over that role.
Jerick McKinnon anytime TD (+140 at bet365)
If you had any Darrel Williams props last week you know about the Chiefs’ usage of Jerick McKinnon in their Wild Card game vs. the Steelers. The RB du jour in the Kansas City offense totaled 142 yards last week and had a score that paid a pretty penny if you were lucky enough to be on it. McKinnon played a healthy 78% of the team’s snaps and could be in for another big workload this Sunday.
Jerick McKinnon’s usage from Sunday night. Note that Darrel Williams (toe) was benched after a botched handoff in the 2Q:
— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) January 17, 2022
* 78% snaps
* 12-of-16 RB carries
* Route on 74.4% dropbacks
* 100% RB targets (6)
* 15.3% target share
Led Chiefs with 106 yards after the catch.
Head coach Andy Reid praised McKinnon’s play last week and talked a lot about the back’s playmaking ability. Williams saw limited action early in the game and hit the bench after muffing a handoff in the second quarter. Williams has also missed practice this week with a toe injury.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire made it back to the practice field this week but Reid would not commit to CEH playing this weekend. The second-year runner has been in and out of the lineup this season and Reid wants to see him get in back-to-back practices and see how he responds before he gives him the green light.
This is McKinnon’s backfield right now and there is no reason that Reid should shy away from the veteran after last week’s performance. The Bills can be beaten on the ground and allow 1.0 touchdowns per game to opposing running backs on the season. McKinnon is also a threat in the passing game, which should keep him on the field regardless of the game’s score. We’re hitting his TD props for one unit at +140 at bet365, which is the best price on the board with DraftKings and FanDuel already at +100.
Rob Gronkowski anytime touchdown (+137 at bet365)
The Buccaneer receivers will be in a tough matchup this week facing Jalen Ramsey and Darious Willams on the outside. Evans looks to be the only healthy WR right now, as Chris Godwin is out while Breshad Perriman and Cyril Grayson are questionable and neither has practiced this week as of Thursday. That would leave Tom Brady with a three-receiver set of Evans, Scotty Miller, and Tyler Johnson.
Brady is also thin on the O-line, with RT Tristan Whirfs and center Ryan Jensen questionable ahead of their battle with Aaron Donald and the Rams.
Brady might find less time in the pocket, which could mean fewer passes downfield to this motley crew of receivers. Rob Gronkowski is the obvious player to target in this situation as Brady’s most trusted target could be leaned on heavily. His best TD price is at bet365 at +137 and worth one unit for us.
Cameron Brate anytime touchdown (+500 at betMGM)
Gronk is the obvious target for Brady in Tampa Bay but we’re also going to sprinkle the No. 2 tight end, Cameron Brate, at +500 for half a unit.
Brate saw three targets last week and one in the red zone. He scored in back-to-back weeks in Weeks 16 and 17 and has just two fewer red zone targets on the year than Mike Evans and seven more than Gronkowski. This is a great price for a likely forgotten player on this offense that’s thin at pass-catchers.
Season to date: 27-57 SU -1.85u
