Dolphins vs Chiefs Weather and Odds: All Clear at Arrowhead?

The value of hosting an NFL playoff game is on display when the Miami Dolphins visit the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Wild Card Round on Saturday night.

The temperatures in Arrowhead Stadium will be very different from the fun and sun of Miami, with this potentially being one of the coldest games in recent NFL history.

How will those chilly temps impact the Dolphins and their NFL odds?

I break down the extended forecast as well as the betting angles and edges in my Dolphins vs. Chiefs weather report. I also broke down the Steelers vs. Bills weather as well as the Eagles vs. Buccaneers weather on Monday.

Dolphins at Chiefs weather

South Beach will feel a million miles away from the Miami Dolphins when they plunge into the frigid waters of Arrowhead Stadium for this 8 p.m. ET kickoff on Saturday night.

The extended forecast for Kansas City calls for mostly cloudy skies with sustained winds around 12 mph with gusts blowing NW at up to 30 mph. Some weather models expect these breezes to slow as the game progresses, with the gusts maxing out at 18 mph in the second half.

Those winds will help chill game-time temperatures, which will hover around zero. The “feels like” temperature for kickoff is expected to be around -10 and that will gradually get colder throughout the game with some services showing “feels like” temps at -17 by the time the fourth quarter rolls around.

That current forecast would make Saturday’s showdown with Miami the coldest playoff game in Kansas City Chiefs history and possibly the coldest game for the franchise overall if those temperatures stay true.

All in all, outside of that teeth-chattering cold, the conditions should be pretty good.

The wind isn’t going to be that disruptive, especially if it calms in the second half, and there’s no rain or snow mucking up the works. It comes down to how these teams handle the dip in mercury.

"Part of playoff football," Dolphins LT Terron Armstead told the media when questioned about the cold in Kansas City. "You go to outdoor stadiums everywhere in January, February. It’s going to be on the colder side. These NFL stadiums, heated benches, heaters on the sideline. The weather don’t really affect the guys as much as people think."

The Kansas City Chiefs will have the edge in experience with conditions this cold, with these players having faced similar temperatures before during their time with the team. Miami, of course, would have a roster less adapted to mid-January in the Midwest.

The clubs and league do their best to keep players and staff warm during these types of games, but guys do feel it when on the field. Hands are stiff, hits hurt a little more, and any lingering injuries (and the Dolphins have plenty) can flare up easily.

Looking back at the coldest games in NFL history that I have betting data for, it doesn’t appear the temperatures had too much influence on the result — or at least didn’t provide any patterns. Out of the four games with temperatures at zero or lower since 1985 (all with a windchill of -20 or lower), the home team is 2-2 SU, and the Over/Under finished 2-2.

This total has seen a minor adjustment, opening at 45 points and sinking to as low as 43 before getting buyback on the Over to set us at the current number of O/U 44.

For me personally, one thing I look at when it comes to “warm weather” teams playing in the cold: warmups. Who’s out there? Is that their normal routine? Who’s bundled up? Who’s wearing short sleeves? Who’s embracing the suck?

Oddsmakers are giving KC the nod with the half-point hook on the field goal and some books up to Chiefs -4.5. On top of the cold climate, the crowd in Arrowhead Stadium will be extremely loud (and loaded), helping drown out any of the Fins offensive play calls at the line of scrimmage.

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