The San Francisco 49ers may stay in survival mode when the Miami Dolphins come to town in Week 5. The Niners, who have been bitten hard by the injury bug, could be without starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo again this Sunday, after he sat the last two weeks with a high-ankle sprain.
The NFL betting odds have San Francisco set as a 9.5-point home favorite following Sunday night’s loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. The Dolphins enter Week 5 at 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS, off a loss to the Seattle Seahawks in Week 4.
These are our NFL free picks and predictions for Dolphins vs. 49ers for October 11.
Editor's note: the 49ers announced Friday afternoon that Jimmy Garoppolo will play on Sunday.
Miami Dolphins vs San Francisco 49ers betting preview
Weather
The forecast for Sunday is calling for partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-70s with winds blowing NNW up to 20 mph at Levi’s Stadium. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Dolphins: Jordan Howard RB (Out), Austin Jackson T (Out), Shaq Lawson DE (Out).
49ers: Ezekiel Ansah DE (Out), Dee Ford DL (Out), K’Waun Williams CB (Out), Emmanuel Moseley CB (Out), Dontae Johnson CB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan hasn’t tipped his hand yet on the status of his No. 1 QB. Garoppolo is questionable for Sunday’s game while recovering from a high ankle sprain, leaving the Niners with backups Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard, who combined for 338 yards passing (32 for 45), one touchdown and two interceptions in Sunday’s home loss to Philadelphia.
Mullens and Beathard had their moments in Week 4 but also made critical mistakes. The 49ers offensive line didn’t protect well against a strong Eagles pass rush (allowed 19 hits on the QBs), but the Dolphins don’t pose the same threat with nine sacks on the year.
Despite that, look for San Francisco to utilize the ground game and quicker passes to take pressure off whoever is under center on Sunday. The 49ers had 116 yards rushing on only 20 carries versus Philly and picked up another 69 yards through the air tossing to RBs and the fullback.
A run-heavy attack (and possibly a backup QB at the wheel) doesn’t allow for a ton of points, and the Niners will need some scores if they’re going to cover this near double-digit spread. The Dolphins are 2-2 ATS and have played much tougher than their 1-3 SU record would indicate.
The Dolphins have been competitive in those losses, trailing by three points or fewer in the fourth quarter of those contests, and even had a 20-17 lead over Buffalo in the final frame back in Week 2. Miami can put up points, averaging 27.3 points over the past three weeks, and takes on a San Francisco defense missing plenty of bodies.
The Niners have a huge homestand with the L.A. Rams next Sunday, opening the window for a lookahead spot against this lofty spread. With San Francisco just trying to survive and get healthy, the Fins could slide in under the 10 points.
PREDICTION: Miami +9.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
With the backup QBs in, the San Francisco receivers were simply decoys on Sunday night. Running back Jerick McKinnon was targeted eight times for seven catches and tight end George Kittle caught 15 of 15 passes his way for 183 yards and a score, setting a franchise record in receptions for the position.
The 49ers can dominate time of possession with a short game like that. The Dolphins are giving up 4.6 yards per carry on the season and haven’t faced a ground game as stout as San Francisco since Week 1’s loss to New England – a game in which they gave up 217 rushing yards and a TOP of almost 35 minutes.
The Fins offense has issues completing drives. Miami is doing well enough to convert third downs but can’t seem to punch it in when creeping into its opponents’ side of the field. The team settled for five field goals in Sunday’s loss to Seattle, with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick also turning the ball over twice.
PREDICTION: Under 49.5 (-110)
Player Prop Pick
With RB Raheem Mostert’s status up in the air, McKinnon is in line for another busy Week 5 after playing 92 percent of San Francisco’s offensive snaps versus the Eagles. McKinnon finished with 21 touches for a grand total of 97 yards.
His pass-catching makes him a popular check down option for the Niners quarterbacks and a threat in the red zone. He’s found the end zone in every game this season, with three on the ground and one receiving touchdown.
The Dolphins defense has allowed five total TDs to running backs this season, including one receiving score and a total of 210 yards through the air to the position. Last week, Seahawks RB Chris Carson scored twice on the ground – and did so fighting through injury.
PREDICTION: Jerick McKinnon touchdown score anytime (-155)
Dolphins vs 49ers betting card
- Miami +9.5 (-110)
- Under 49.5 (-110)
- Jerick McKinnon touchdown score anytime (-155)
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