With the rest of the AFC East crumbling around them, the Buffalo Bills go for a fourth straight win on Sunday when they take on the Miami Dolphins at Highmark Stadium for a 1:00 p.m. ET kickoff, airing on CBS
My Dolphins vs Bills predictions point to more home cooking for Buffalo, and my NFL picks for this November 3 battle center around two key running backs.
Dolphins vs Bills prediction & picks
Spread
A six-point spread makes sense, given Buffalo has won its last two games by a combined 65-27 margin — but the line could be even higher. The Dolphins are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 outings, and the Bills are fresh off flexing their muscles on the road against the Seattle Seahawks.
Even with Tua running the offense, I don’t see Miami keeping pace here.
Score prediction: Dolphins 23, Bills 34
Moneyline
If three straight victories weren’t enough to shorten the price on the Buffalo Bills moneyline, one glance at their recent head-to-head record against the Dolphins probably did the trick. Buffalo has owned this matchup, winning the past five meetings (and nine of the last 10).
Over/Under
It’s tough to take the Under on a line of 49 after what Josh Allen has conjured up lately. I prefer the Over here, with the Buffalo offense clicking (fifth in the NFL with 28.8 ppg) and enough big-play threats for Miami to put points on the board, too.
My Dolphins vs Bills best bet
De'Von Achane Over 86.5 rushing+receiving yards (-120 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Tyreek Hill’s emotional reaction to Tua’s return got all the attention, but De’Von Achane must have been just as relieved.
After four straight games with limited opportunities in the passing game, the Miami Dolphins running back looked re-energized against Arizona as the Phins finally got back on track offensively.
Achane was a constant threat last weekend, turning 10 carries into 97 yards and adding six catches for 50 yards and a touchdown. With dry conditions expected at Highmark Stadium, I see Achane being a central cog in Miami’s game plan and testing the Bills’ open-field tackling.
He did damage against the Buffalo Bills in the Week 2 matchup, piling up 29 touches and 165 yards from scrimmage, and this combo total feels even more manageable with his big-play potential. Achane had a 39-yard reception in Week 1 and a 47-yard run last weekend.
With all the downfield attention on Hill and Jaylen Waddle, Tua can exploit the middle of the field with Achane’s speed, and I’m wagering on the versatile Dolphins running back being a thorn in Buffalo’s side again in a must-win game for the visitors.
Dolphins vs Bills same-game parlay
De'Von Achane Over 86.5 rushing+receiving yards
James Cook anytime touchdown
Khalil Shakir Over 4.5 receptions
James Cook has eight touchdowns so far this year, with three of those coming in Week 2 against the Dolphins. He’s found the end zone four times in his past three games, and I’m not ready to trust a struggling Miami run defense.
Three Buffalo WR had at least 50 yards against Seattle last Sunday, but it’s Khalil Shakir who’s emerged as Josh Allen’s No. 1 security blanket for quick slants and screens.
Shakir caught nine of his 10 targets for 107 yards in Week 8, and he hauled in seven grabs against the Titans in the Bills’ prior contest. I expect him to be busy again here, and I love the Over on 4.5 receptions.
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Dolphins vs Bills odds
Dolphins vs Bills live odds
Dolphins vs Bills opening odds
- Spread: Miami +6 (-110) | Buffalo -6 (-110)
- Moneyline: Miami +240 | Buffalo -300
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 (-110) | Under 48.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Dolphins vs Bills betting trend to know
The Bills have scored more than 30 points in four of their last five meetings with the Dolphins. Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Bills.
Dolphins vs Bills game info
| Location: | Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-3, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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