Dolphins vs Buccaneers Prediction, Picks & Odds for This Week’s NFL Preseason Game

It’s a Sunshine State showdown for the Miami Dolphins and Tampa Bay Buccaneers to wrap up their preseason schedules on Friday night.

Miami has won two straight to start exhibition play, while Tampa has gone 1-1 and will give No. 1 quarterback Baker Mayfield another tune-up ahead of the regular season.

The Mayfield news has moved the Bucs' line and the total significantly, and I'll attack the latter with my free Dolphins vs. Buccaneers predictions and NFL picks for Friday’s preseason finale.

Dolphins vs Buccaneers prediction

My best bet
Under 38 (-110 at Caesars)

My analysis

There has been a major move to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' side in this game, and I’m aligning it with the announcement that No. 1 quarterback Baker Mayfield will start. The total has also climbed across the board, so there has been a lot of action. Pinnacle opened with the Miami Dolphins a -1.5 point favorite and a 34.5 total, and the Bucs are now trading at -3 chalk while the total is up to 38 at the shop.

Those are major adjustments, and in both cases, the movement has been through key numbers. So, the immediate question is whether a series or two of Mayfield behind center is worth that much to the spread and total, or if there is another angle driving the movement?

With the Under going 26-7 to start the preseason, the climb in the total in this game doesn’t align with the two-week trend. I also associate a lot of the move to the Tampa side with the underwhelming quarterback play from Miami backups Skylar Thompson and Mike White, because I don’t expect Dolphins No. 1 Tua Tagovailoa to see the field.

Thompson has a 47.1 completion percentage for just 4.59 yards per attempt and a 50.4 PFF grade, and White has been even worse with respective 44.1%, 4.18, and 46.1 marks. On the flip side, Kyle Trask and John Wolford haven’t been overly sharp for the Bucs, either. The duo have combined for a 60.6% completion rate and 6.13 yards per attempt, and I anticipate them splitting the bulk of the action following an early exit from Mayfield.

Additionally, I don’t expect many skill-position players to suit up, either. Miami wideouts Tyreek Hill (hand) and Jaylen Waddle (undisclosed) are both nursing injuries, and Tampa receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin didn’t play in either of the first two preseason games.

As a result, I don’t think either team will show off on offense, and we now have a buyback opportunity on this inflated total.

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Dolphins vs Buccaneers odds

Dolphins vs Buccaneers live odds

Dolphins vs Buccaneers opening odds

• Spread: Miami -1.5 | Tampa Bay +1.5
• Moneyline: Miami -125 | Tampa Bay +107
• Over/Under: Over 34.5 | Under 34.5

Dolphins vs Buccaneers betting trend to know

The Under went 26-7 through the first two weeks of the NFL preseason, and a perfect 4-0 in games involving the Dolphins and Buccaneers. Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Buccaneers.

Dolphins vs Buccaneers game info

Dolphins vs Buccaneers weather

Expect hot and humid conditions with a 30% chance of a rain shower. Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.

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