The road to 0-16 continues into Week 12 as the winless New York Jets host the AFC East’s second-best team, the 6-4 Miami Dolphins at the Meadowlands this holiday weekend.
Rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa is coming off his first NFL loss (and benching) and will look to rebound against the NFL’s worst team as the Dolphins continue to make some noise in the AFC playoff race. The Jets opened as a TD underdog with the spread trending towards the +6.5. The total has fallen 1.5 points from 46 to 44.5 in the early points of the week.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Dolphins vs. Jets on November 29 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets Betting Preview
Weather
MetLife Stadium should be a great place for some holiday weekend football with clear skies, temperatures in the low-50s, low winds (6 mph), and a one percent chance of rain. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa QB (Out), Salvon Ahmed RB (Out), Myles Gaskin RB (Out), Preston Williams WR (Out).
Jets: George Fant T (Out), Chuma Edoga T (Out), Alex Lewis G (Out), La'Mical Perine RB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Under has hit in four of the last five meetings. Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Jets.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
The Jets may have covered three of their last four games, but it hasn’t been pretty. They backdoored the Chargers last week after trailing 24-6 at halftime. They blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead against the Pats and ran into 2018 Josh Allen four games ago. The seven-point head start is the smallest spread the Jets have seen since Oct 11.
The Dolphins lost outright as four-point faves last week in the thin air in Denver. Tagovailoa was benched but coach Brian Flores has said that the rookie QB will start against the Jets. Before Week 11’s loss, Tua and the Phins were averaging 30.3 points per game and two of those opponents sported Top-10 DVOA defenses (Arizona and L.A. Rams).
This is a Miami defense that has forced eight turnovers in its last four games and they get to face a Joe Flacco-led offense that has thrown an interception in three straight weeks and will also feature 37-year-old running back Frank Gore with La'Mical Perine out.
The Dolphins blanked the Jets 24-0 back on October 14 and dating back to Oct 22, 2017, the Dolphins are 5-0-1 ATS against the Jets.
PREDICTION: Miami -7 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
The Dolphins may be 3-1 SU in Tua’s first four games as a starter, but it hasn’t been because of the offense (hence last week’s benching). Miami is gaining the second-fewest yards per play (4.7) in the league over its last three games, which is only better than the Bears—yuck!
The Jets have actually put some points on the board over the last two weeks but expecting Flacco and the passing game to succeed against Miami’s No. 8 DVOA pass defense might be foolish. The Dolphins held Flacco to 21-of-44 passing and 186-scoreless yards back in Week 6.
Before ripping off 55 points against the Patriots and Chargers’ generous defenses the previous two weeks, the Jets were averaging less than 10 points per game in the four games prior. The Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings and both teams have been profitable or neutral on the Under this year.
PREDICTION: Under 44.5 (-110)
Double Result Prop Pick
Bad teams may cover, but they don’t win games. Betting against bad teams to lose the first half and lose the game is a good way to get decent odds in higher-spread games.
The Jets are averaging just 7.4 first-half points per game this year and have lost eight of their 10 first halves as well. If you’re counting at home, that would make for eight times that the Jets’ opponents have hit the double result this season.
We were thinking of playing a Jets’ team total Under 17.5 or the Dolphins to score every quarter but passed. With our play on the Under and liking the Dolphins at -7, but not much more, taking Miami to win the first half, and eventually, the game, is a great addition to our card and offers great value against a team that doesn’t want to win.
PREDICTION: Double result: Miami – Miami (-125)
Dolphins vs Jets Betting Card
- Miami -7 (-110)
- Under 44.5 (-110)
- Double result: Miami – Miami (-125)
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