The Green Bay Packers host the visiting Miami Dolphins at Lambeau Field for the Thanksgiving nightcap on Thursday, November 28.
Miami and quarterback Tua Tagovolia have struggled to win in colder temperatures, and our same-game parlay NFL picks and I expect Green Bay to give the faithful Cheeseheads plenty to be thankful for on Thursday night.
Dolphins vs Packers SGP for Week 13
Packers moneyline
Josh Jacobs Over 89.5 rushing + receiving yards
Tua Tagovailoa Over 240.5 passing yards
- Packers moneyline
- Josh Jacobs Over 89.5 rushing + receiving yards
- Tua Tagovailoa Over 240.5 passing yards
This is a quick turnaround for the Miami Dolphins to visit Lambeau Field, while the Green Bay Packers are coming off a statement 38-10 home win in which they controlled the ball for 36:43 and the defense only hit the field for 49 plays.
Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has struggled to the tune of a 0-7 record in frigid temperatures of 40 degrees or colder, and the weather forecast is calling for the coldest game of the year.
Additionally, the Green Bay offense is rolling with the ninth-highest EPA per play, and QB Jordan Love has spun it for a tidy 8.0 yards per attempt and a 9.7 aDoT.
Turning to the Green Bay backfield, Josh Jacobs has recorded 90 or more yards from scrimmage in nine of 11 games for an average of 102.7, and he’s handled double-digit carries in all but one game this season.
Add Jacobs coming off a rested effort with his second-lowest snap share (52%) while also posting his highest PFF rushing grade of the season, and I’m anticipating another busy and productive night for the go-to back.
Plus, he’s thriving in a winning environment with a career-high 3.58 yards after contact per rushing attempt and yards after the catch (10.0), while also posting his highest breakaway percentage (23.7%) and yards per catch (8.1) since his rookie year.
Still, the Miami offense and Tagovailoa are heating up, and this final leg of the same-game parlay is a nice odds booster.
The fifth-year signal-caller has averaged 28.5 completions for 302.5 yards with 8.0 yards per attempt the past two weeks, and Miami is third in both EPA per dropback and dropback success rate during the run.
Tagovailoa will need to air it out again as a road underdog.
Green Bay is also likely to be without No. 1 cornerback Jaire Alexander (knee), and I also value the Packers ranking 24th in PFF pass-rush grade and 27th in pass-rush win rate because I expect Tagovailoa to have time behind center to spread the ball around to his talented pass-catchers.
Not intended for use in MA.
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