Monday Night Football in Week 16 features a matchup between a pair of .500 teams as the New Orleans Saints host the Miami Dolphins. Both of these teams are on the playoff bubble but can't afford to lose with just three games remaining in the NFL regular season.
With New Orleans missing its top two quarterbacks the Over/Under for this game is the lowest on the NFL betting board this week at 37.5 while the 'Phins are installed as 2.5-point road favorites.
Here are our best free Dolphins vs. Saints picks and predictions for Monday, December 27, with kickoff at 8:15 p.m. ET.
Dolphins vs Saints odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The line for this game opened with the Saints as 3-point home favorites with an Over/Under of 39. However, when reports came out New Orleans would be without their top two quarterbacks the line jumped the fence to Miami -2.5 while the total dropped to 37.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Dolphins vs Saints predictions
Predictions made on 12/26/2021 at 1 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Dolphins vs Saints game info
• Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
• Date: Monday, December 27, 2021
• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Dolphins at Saints betting preview
Weather
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Key injuries
Dolphins: Albert Wilson WR (Out), Will Fuller IV WR (Out), Jason McCourty DB (Out), Solomon Kindley G (Out).
Saints: Trevor Siemian QB (Out), Taysom Hill QB (Out), Demario Davis LB (Out), Ryan Ramczyk OT (Out), Terron Armstead OT (Out), Kwon Alexander LB (Out), Juwan Johnson WR (Out), Malcolm Jenkins S (Out), Deonte Harris WR (Out), Jameis Winston QB (Out), Tanoh Kpassagnon DE (Out), Christian Ringo DT (Out), Carl Granderson DE (Out), Michael Thomas WR (Out), Andrus Peat G (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Saints are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win. Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Saints.
Dolphins vs Saints picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
The Saints are coming off a 9-0 upset victory over the Buccaneers last week to improve to 7-7 SU and ATS. They'll likely need another dominant defensive display like that on Monday night with the current state of their roster.
The Saints have a slew of starters out either due to injuries or COVID-19 including several players on their offensive line, wide receiver corps, and defensive end rotation. But the position which is in the worst shape also happens to be the most important position on the field: quarterback.
New Orleans lost starting QB Jameis Winston to a season-ending injury way back in Week 8 and now they'll be without Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian as well after the two remaining passers hit the reserve/COVID-19 list on Thursday.
That makes rookie quarterback Ian Book the next man up. The 23-year-old had a productive college career at Notre Dame, going 30-5 as a starter, but has yet to throw a pass at this level and wasn't taken until the end of the fourth round. He also doesn't have many weapons with Marquez Callaway (555 receiving yards) and Alvin Kamara (348 receiving yards) the only players likely to suit up with over 200 receiving yards this season.
The Saints' offense will lean heavily on Kamara in this one but the Pro Bowl running back could find it tough to churn out yards behind a banged-up offensive line and against a Miami defense that will focus on stopping the run. Miami got off to a brutal 1-7 start to the year but have since turned things around with six straight wins, going 5-1 ATS over that span.
The Dolphins' improved defensive play has been crucial to that turnaround with Miami's defense ranking second in the NFL in EPA/play and third in success rate since Week 9. While the Dolphins, like every team in the league, have been affected by the surge in COVID cases, they currently have most of their starting lineup intact after rookie studs Jaylen Waddle and Jevon Holland rejoined the team last Monday.
The Dolphins have also made strides on offense with second-year QB Tua Tagovailoa starting to look more comfortable under center and he'll be thrilled to get back the speedy Waddle to compliment the massive DeVante Parker at wideout. Meanwhile, their ground game has been getting contributions from several players including the recently acquired Duke Johnson who rushed for a career-high 107 yards in just his second game with Miami last week.
Miami has averaged 119.3 rushing yards per game over their last four games and that should help the Dolphins outscore a depleted Saints side.
Prediction: Dolphins -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
This total opened at an already low 39 before ticking down to 37.5, but the Under still looks like the play. Despite the Dolphins' recent improvements on offense, the Under has still cashed in five of their last seven games. While four of those Unders came against some of the worst offenses in the league in the Jets, Giants, and Texans, the Saints might not be any better at the moment.
It's hard to expect much from Book in his first career start and if the Dolphins load up the box to stop the run they could force the untested rookie into some tough situations as a passer.
Although the Saints' COVID issues extend to their defense with linebackers DeMario Davis and Kwon Alexander along with safety Malcolm Jenkins on the protocol list, they still have plenty of depth on that side of the ball. Defensive lineman Cameron Jordan and cornerback Marshon Lattimore are among the best players in the league at their respective positions and the Saints rank fifth in the league in scoring defense, holding foes to 20.4 points per game.
The Saints limited the Jets to 256 yards of offense and just nine points in Week 14 and then played even better last week, shutting out Tom Brady and the league's highest-scoring team. With the Under cashing in four straight games for New Orleans, we're leaning in that direction even with the extremely low number on the board.
Prediction: Under 37.5 (-110)
Best bet
It's been a mess betting on NFL games over the last couple of weeks with the massive uptick in COVID-19 cases putting rosters into a constant state of flux. It's important not to overreact to certain missing players but quarterback is the most valuable position on the field and starting a fourth-string passer who doesn't have a single pro snap to his name, is extremely tough for any team let alone one that is already lacking in offensive playmakers.
It's also important not to overreact to a team's most recent game and while the Saints' defense looked incredible against the Bucs last week, that was just one contest and the Saints have allowed 27.8 ppg at home this year.
With the Dolphins' current form, I was heavily leaning in their direction on the moneyline even before the news broke that Hill and Siemian would be out. Now with Book at QB and the Saints also severely banged up at other positions, I'll gladly back the Phins at less than a field goal.
Pick: Dolphins -2.5 (-110)
