The 2022 NFL Draft is nearly here and there is a ton of uncertainty. Whether it's who the Jaguars will take first overall or when the quarterbacks will go, there are still a lot of questions.
For bettors, that means there is plenty of value to extract from NFL Draft odds, and that is certainly the case for a team picking a bit later in the first round: the Green Bay Packers.
After trading away Davante Adams and now possessing two first round picks (Nos. 22 and 28), many expect the Packers to take a wide receiver in the opening round of this year's draft. With receiver-needy teams picking between their two picks (Arizona at 23 and Dallas at 24), many NFL mock drafts are expecting Green Bay to fire on a wide receiver with the first of its two selections.
However, there are several reasons to believe that the Packers won't take a wide receiver first.
NFL Draft 2022 Packers first position drafted odds
| Position | Odds |
|---|---|
| Wide receiver | -150 |
| Defensive lineman | +450 |
| Linebacker | +600 |
| Offensive lineman | +750 |
| Defensive back | +750 |
| Tight end | +10,000 |
| Running back | +10,000 |
| Quarterback | +20,000 |
| Special teams | +20,000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of April 26, 2022
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NFL Draft 2022 Packers first position drafted pick
- Packers first pick — Offensive lineman
Pick made on April 26, 2022.
Franchise and GM history
First and foremost when looking at this NFL Draft prop, drafting wide receivers in the first round is not in the DNA of the Packers. The last time Green Bay took a first-round receiver was Javon Walker in 2002.
Before that, you would have to go all the way back to 1988 to find the next instance (Sterling Sharpe). Most notably, neither of those two examples have come from this current general manager lineage.
Ted Thompson, the previous general manager, served in the position from 2005 to 2017. His tenure came to an unexpected end due to a neurodegenerative disorder, and he was the one to interview and hire current general manager Brian Gutekunst in his place from 2018 onwards.
Gutekunst has largely kept to a lot of the principles that Ted Thompson drafted upon, which is why the first round wideout drought has continued through his first four drafts since being hired.
First round trends
The Packers' have a very set way of using their premium picks: young prospects with high athleticism scores. Of Gutekunst's five first round selections thus far, all but one have been 21 years old: 22-year-old Eric Stokes in 2021.
However, Stokes was a "young" 22, having turned that age in the March prior to last year's draft. When looking at Relative Athletic Scores (RAS), it is very clear that Gutekunst looks for elite athleticism as well.
| Year | Player | Age | RAS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Jaire Alexander | 21 | 9.54 |
| 2019 | Rashan Gary | 21 | 9.95 |
| 2019 | Darnell Savage | 21 | 8.35 |
| 2020 | Jordan Love | 21 | 8.46 |
| 2021 | Eric Stokes | 22 | 9.38 |
In the 2022 class, the following wide receivers have been projected in or near the first round AND meet both of these apparent qualifiers:
- Chris Olave (21 years old, 8.61 RAS)
- George Pickens (21 years old, 9.33 RAS)
- Christian Watson (22 years old, 9.96 RAS)
Olave's stock has risen since the combine and there is a wide belief that his floor is somewhere around picks 16-18 (NO, LAC, and PHI).
Pickens was also a post-combine riser, but a lot of teams have seemingly cooled off on him based on poor interviews which would make him the type of character that Green Bay has notably avoided.
Christian Watson is the oldest of the bunch and will turn 23 two weeks after the draft, and is likely too old in Gutekunst's eyes.
Trade market
One thing that is possibly being understated in the heavy odds of Green Bay going receiver first is that the Packers could address the need through a trade. They have already been linked to Deebo Samuel and Darren Waller in just the past week.
If the Packers were to make such a move, it would become extremely unlikely for them to invest even more in the position.
Other needs
Although WR is the glaring need in the eyes of many, Green Bay has other holes that need to be addressed as well.
Pass rusher, linebacker, safety, and offensive line are all needs that could be better addressed with their first pick given what the Packers typically look for in prospects.
Some of the names in the Packers' range include:
- EDGE George Karlaftis (21 years old, 9.20 RAS)
- EDGE Drake Jackson, (21 years old, 8.60 RAS)
- LB Quay Walker (21 years old, 9.63 RAS)
- S Daxton Hill (21 years old, 9.07 RAS)
- OT Tyler Smith (21 years old, 8.76 RAS)
Given the odds of any of these positions being taken by Green Bay with their first pick, they are all worthy of consideration.
Linebacker and safety lack top-end depth outside of both Devin Lloyd and Kyle Hamilton. The Packers' picks are in prime locations for the next tier with names like Quay Walker and Daxton Hill.
Edge rushers present a very deep class that still presents good bang-for-your-buck with George Karlaftis and Drake Johnson. If there is one pick that provides the most value betting-wise, it may be the offensive line.
Assuming the Packers don't move, the teams drafting between their 22nd and 28th picks are ones that could sensibly take someone in the trenches. The Cardinals (23rd), Cowboys (24th), Titans (26th), and Buccaneers (27th) all could use an offensive lineman and have been commonly mocked one to varying degrees.
For example, just last week Peter Schrager mocked three offensive linemen from picks 23 to 27. With that in mind, the Packers may feel inclined to be the first to the table amongst the group.
It also doesn't close the door on the Packers taking a receiver at 28 or in the second round, and Gutekunst could then conceivably frame the selection as one that still helps Aaron Rodgers and the rest of the offense.
