The 3-7-1 Philadelphia Eagles are still in the hunt for the NFC East Division title, but there's a serious obstacle in their way in Week 13—Aaron Rodgers and the 8-3 Green Bay Packers.
NFL betting odds opened with Green Bay as a touchdown favorite at home, but that spread has since swelled to -8.5 and even -9.0 at some books.
Before the season started, this would have been one of those circle-the-calendar matchups, but now it's, well...hey, at least it's NFL odds to bet on? Right? RIGHT?
Here are our best free picks and predictions for the Philadelphia Eagles at the Green Bay Packers on December 6, with kickoff set for 4:25 p.m. ET.
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers Betting Preview
Weather
The Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field will be cold on Sunday afternoon, with partly-cloudy skies yielding a high of 35 degrees. There's also a 7.5 mph wind, and zero chance of precipitation. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Eagles: Lane Johnson T (Out), Rudy Ford S (Out).
Packers: Cory Linsley C (Out), Josh Jackson CB (Out), Montravius Adams DL (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as a home favorite. Find more NFL betting trends for Eagles vs. Packers.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
Aaron Rodgers is amazing. Carson Wentz is amazingly bad. And thus concludes our analysis (kidding...but not really).
In all seriousness, this is a tale of two QBs on opposite sides of the spectrum. Rodgers leads the NFL with 33 touchdown passes this season, and his 33:4 TD/INT ratio is second only to the odds-on favorite to win the 2020 NFL MVP. The Packers are coming off a Sunday Night Football dismantling of the Chicago Bears, and if not for a Marquez Valdes-Scantling overtime fumble in Week 11, would be riding a four-game win streak.
For as good as Rodgers has been in 2020, Wentz has been equally as bad. The former second-overall pick has the second-worst completion percentage in the league (58.1 percent) with just 16 touchdowns against a league-leading 15 interceptions, while also being sacked an NFL-most 46 times in 11 games. Facing a Seahawks defense last week that has been among the worst statistical stop units in recent memory, Wentz & Co. managed a whopping five punts, zero first downs, and -1 total yards in the first half, until they managed a TD on their final possession of the second quarter in an eventual 27-17 loss.
The Eagles have not topped 23 points in any of their last five games (against Seattle, Cleveland, Dallas and the Giants twice) and have notched exactly 17 points in three straight contests—all defeats. Also of note is that Philadelphia's recent scores have also been inflated by consecutive weeks, where it scored a garbage touchdown in the final minute when the game was out of reach.
While the expected return of TE Zach Ertz from injury gives the Eagles another weapon, the fact is that Wentz and the offense simply aren't getting it done. Even though the defense has been solid lately, I'm not betting against Rodgers at home.
PREDICTION: Green Bay -8.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
The total for this game has dropped down to 47, with action on the Under due to the Eagles' offensive ineptitude. But I'm looking at a Packers offense that over the last month dropped 41 on the Bears, 31 on the Colts, and 34 on the 49ers, and I can't help but look at going against that trend.
The Packers just ran for 182 yards against the Bears' fifth-ranked DVOA rush defense (per Football Outsiders) last week and should abuse an Eagles run D that gives up the ninth-most rushing yards per game. And as for stopping Rodgers and the aerial attack, well good luck to Philly and its 20th-ranked DVOA pass defense.
Green Bay should be able to do the heavy lifting to approach this total. And with Wentz's propensity to turn it on in garbage time, I mean the fourth quarter, that could add enough points to hop over the total—especially if it keeps dropping and goes below the key number of 47.
PREDICTION: Over 47 (-110)
Player Prop Pick
Speaking of the Packers' aerial attack, wide receiver Davante Adams is basically unstoppable. Rodgers' favorite target has found the end zone in six straight games (nine total TDs over that stretch) and he should have more success against the Eagles on Sunday.
Adams is likely to see a lot of Eagles CB Darius Slay, but bettors shouldn't fret too much: Slay went against Seattle stud D.K. Metcalf last week and the Seattle WR went off for 10 catches, 177 yards and a TD—with seven of those grabs and 141 of those yards when Slay was matched up directly with him. Slay has called it the "worst game of his career," but he's struggled all season, allowing 71.4 percent of passes thrown his way to be completed and an opposing QB passer rating of 100.8.
With Adams averaging 11 targets per game this year, expect him to have another big day—and find the end zone for a seventh straight contest.
PREDICTION: Davante Adams anytime touchdown (-138)
Eagles vs Packers Betting Card
- Green Bay -8.5 (-110)
- Over 47 (-110)
- Davante Adams anytime touchdown (-138)
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