Eagles vs Patriots Prediction and Picks: Eagles Hurt Patriots on the Ground

The Philadelphia Eagles reach for the sunglasses and Advil in Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season, trying to shake off a potential Super Bowl hangover when they visit the New England Patriots.

Philadelphia, which was last seen losing to Kansas City in Arizona, is a road favorite in this first outing of the new schedule. While the Super Bowl loser has historically been a bad bet in Week 1 of the following year (covering just 22% of the time in the last 23 seasons), there’s too much talent on this Eagles team to deny.

Philadelphia has one of the deepest rosters on both sides of the ball and multiple ways to win games, including a scary good defense and a rapidly maturing quarterback in Jalen Hurts, who balled out in the Big Game.

As for the Patriots, they’re settling to the bottom of the AFC East, well behind the projections for their division rivals. New England still has top-tier head coach Bill Belichick and a defense that is expected to rank among the league’s stingiest stop units in 2023.

I run down the NFL odds for this non-conference contest and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Eagles at Patriots on September 10.

Eagles vs Patriots odds

Eagles vs Patriots predictions

This is definitely a spread that makes you go “hmmm…”.

The opener slimmed from the Philadelphia Eagles -5 to as low as -3.5, despite sportsbooks reporting one-sided play on the Eagles. What that tells us is that whatever money did come in on the New England Patriots is likely respected.

There are those who believe in Bill Belichick, especially with an entire summer to game plan for Philadelphia.

The Hoodie is a defensive mastermind and this group will keep New England competitive most weeks, especially after finishing last year No. 3 in EPA allowed per dropback and making foes work for it, ranked seventh in points allowed per play.

The Eagles offense may not run roughshod against the Pats in Week 1 but luckily for Philly, it has a cheat code. And that code is One. Quarterback Jalen Hurts is a one-man playbook and can make magic when all else fails. Hurts proved to be a potent passer in 2022 but what makes him special is his legs.

All the talk out of Philly this offseason was about Hurts running less and maybe that’s trickling down to the Jalen Hurts odds markets for Week 1. Hurts’ rushing yard total is a piddly 41.5 yards on the ground (Over -110), which is almost 10 yards shy of his season average from last year.

Hurts may be forced to run more than the Eagles plan, considering his receivers face a sound New England pass defense and a pass rush that produced the seventh-highest pressure rate in 2022, including a league-high 73 QB hurries.

Hurts faced the two defenses just below the Patriots in those 2022 hurry stats – Kansas City and Detroit – and finished with 70 and 90 yards rushing in those contests. He also broke for 77 yards versus the Giants, 57 versus Minnesota, and 157 yards facing Green Bay – more defenses that were great at creating pressure on the passer.

Player projections for Week 1 peg Hurts with rushing estimates between 45.2 yards and 61.6 gains on the ground, with a consensus of 52-plus. That gives Over bettors plenty of headroom and a high ceiling, especially with the way running QBs have decimated Belichick’s defense in recent years.

The Patriots were carved up by the busy legs of Lamar Jackson (107 rushing yards) and Justin Fields (82 yards) last season and have also watched Josh Allen roll over them for big days on the ground going back to 2021-22.

Many of Hurts’ passing projections are lower for Week 1, but his rushing production is calling for at least 42 yards as he takes over this game with his legs.

My best bet: Jalen Hurts Over 40.5 rushing yards (-125 at PointsBet)

Eagles vs Patriots same-game parlay

Jalen Hurts Over 40.5 rushing yards

First-half Under 22.5

Eagles ML 

+350 at PointsBet

Hurts and this offense may not be able to exploit the Patriots' pass defense and that will give New England time to turn up the pressure, pushing the crazy-legged QB to grab gains on the ground. Player modeling calls for a ceiling of 60-plus yards in Week 1.

Belichick will want to slow things down early on and knows he can’t afford to let the Eagles get away on the scoreboard in the first half. That should turn this into a defense joust between two elite stop units.

My ratings are very bullish on Philly this season and I do have a spread bet on the Eagles -3.5. But with a lot of places ticking up to Philadelphia -4, I often opt for the outright odds when spreads reach this undervalued key number. FYI: 4-point faves are 35-35 SU and just 23-46-1 ATS since 2018 (33.6%).

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Eagles vs Patriots spread and Over/Under analysis

The Week 1 lines have been absorbing action since opening in late May and this non-conference clash has seen the spread adjust quite a bit since then.

Philadelphia hit the board as big as -5 at some sportsbooks but has since dwindled down to as low as -3.5 as of Wednesday afternoon. Most books are sitting on the undervalued key number of -4 as the weekend draws near.

According to BetMGM operations, 78% of ticket count and 93% of the handle is riding on Philadelphia. Our Covers Consensus percentages are just as bullish on the visitor with 71% of picks laying the points with the Eagles.

My NFL power ratings have these teams at opposite ends of the spectrum, as I’m very high on Philly and not so much on New England. My projected spread calls for the Eagles to lay as much as -10.5, which may seem a bit ambitious. Take that rating with a grain of salt (and a shot of tequila), as those ratings are a work in progress and reflect the temperature of the offseason markets.

Given there is about a five-point discrepancy between the actual spread and my projected handicap, we have to dig into why the Patriots wouldn’t be bigger underdogs – or why this line would slim from heights of Philadelphia -5?

New England did garner attention in the offseason as a potential landing spot for coveted free agents DeAndre Hopkins and Dalvin Cook, who ultimately passed on playing for the Patriots. That leaves this depth chart, especially on offense, looking a little… dull.

Unlike last season, however, New England actually has an “offensive coach” coaching the offense with Bill O’Brien back for a victory lap in Boston. O’Brien will be a huge shot in the arm for QB Mac Jones, who suffered through a sophomore slog with Matt Patricia and Joe Judges (not offensive coaches) running that side of the ball. Jones has big bad targets in JuJu Smith-Schuster and twin TEs Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki along with speedy Devante Parker.

Pats backers are asking a lot of the offense when it goes against the Eagles defense in the opener. Philadelphia was tops in EPA allowed per play in 2022 and does a great job creating pressure with just the front four, powering a pass rush that ranked second in pressure rate and led the league with 70 sacks.

Philly’s defense was susceptible to the ground game but because the offense was so efficient, opponents were often playing from behind and forced to abandon the ground game. The Patriots have a strong combo in RBs Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott, but if the defense can’t reel in the Eagles’ offense, it forces the Pats to pass more and play into the teeth of this defense.

Jalen Hurts is a one-man offense for Philly, showing he’s just as dangerous with his arm as he is with his legs. He’s surrounded by a bevy of skill players, with WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith and stud TE Dallas Goedert as well as new RB D'Andre Swift. This unit is secured by the best offensive line in football and when combined with Hurts, that push is instant first downs on short yardage situations.

Sunday’s Over/Under total opened at 46.5 points and has come down to as low as 45 points, with 87% of the early money on the Under.

As mentioned, you have two of the better stop units in the league lining up and two offenses that could chew up time of possession with shorter passes and run-heavy playbooks. The Eagles were 10-7 Over/Under in 2022 while the Patriots finished 8-9 O/U on the season.

Game-time temperatures will feel close to 90 degrees thanks to the high humidity (82%) in Foxborough, with a potential for thunderstorms in the forecast. That heat could wear on these teams in the second half, especially when you have an up-tempo pace like Philadelphia pushing the football in the opening game of the season.

Eagles vs Patriots betting trend to know

The Eagles have scored first in 16 of their last 21 games, which has produced +7.2 units of profit in that span. Philadelphia is a -140 favorite to crack the scoreboard first in Week 1. Find more NFL betting trends for Eagles vs. Patriots.

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