Falcons vs Dolphins Preseason Picks and Predictions: Fade Atlanta's Second-Stringers

Two days of chippy practices have set up a potentially heated exhibition showdown as the Atlanta Falcons face the Miami Dolphins in the preseason opener for both teams.

The Falcons are looking to build on a 7-10 season under young starting quarterback Desmond Ridder. The Dolphins made the playoffs after going 9-8 last year, and are hoping to improve on what head coach Mike McDaniel called “average” practices against Atlanta this week.

While neither team is likely to give their stars much run on Friday, one side has more motivation to run out at least some of the starting lineup for the preseason opener. We’ll break down what to expect in our free NFL preseason picks and predictions for Falcons vs. Dolphins on August 11.

Falcons vs Dolphins odds

Falcons vs Dolphins predictions

If Arthur Smith’s history is any indication, he’s unlikely to play any of his Atlanta Falcons starters on Friday at Hard Rock Stadium. Over the past two years, Smith has barely played his starters at all to begin the preseason, sitting them out entirely in 2021 before giving them just a couple of series in the 2022 opener.

While nobody is running out their optimal lineup at this point, that’s not a game plan that tends to lead to preseason wins. The Falcons did manage to scrape out a 27-23 win over the Detroit Lions in their opener last year, but that was due to having some unusually strong quarterback play between Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder.

This year, Logan Woodside should be the signal caller for most of the first game. A former seventh-round draft pick out of Toledo, Woodside has spent the last few years of his career on the practice squad of the Tennessee Titans. Since going pro, the only time he’s played was with the San Antonio Commanders of the Alliance of American Football in 2019, throwing seven touchdown passes and seven interceptions in seven games.

That’s not a resume that gives me much hope for Atlanta offensively.

And while the Falcons do have some exciting players to watch in the opener — most notably, we’ll want to see what Bijan Robinson can do on an NFL field — Woodside won’t exactly get much help when he’s throwing behind a backup offensive line.

The Miami Dolphins should be taking a slightly different approach. While Miami may be cautious after Jaylen Waddle suffered an apparent injury on Wednesday, there are a few starters who should get some snaps for the Dolphins. The offensive line would be a key point for Miami no matter what, given how important it is to protect Tua Tagovailoa at this point in his career.

Austin Jackson and Liam Eichenberg should be fighting for starting jobs, and that means they’ll have to put in at least a solid effort against Atlanta’s backups on the defensive side. That line will get the chance to provide holes for Dolphins rookie running back Devon Achane.

Miami also has some key players getting snaps on defense, including potential starters like cornerbacks Cam Smith and Noah Igbinoghene, along with safety Elijah Campbell. The secondary has produced picks in practice off of Ridder and should be able to do the same against Woodside.

There are enough experienced Dolphins players suiting up on Friday to give them the advantage. With Miami coming in as a slight underdog, I’m taking the home side on the moneyline.

My best bet: Dolphins moneyline (+120 at Caesars)

Falcons vs Dolphins spread and Over/Under analysis

The Falcons opened Friday’s game as a two-point road favorite. The consensus spread is now Atlanta -2.5, with the slight bump in the number possibly being related to the Waddle injury.

As a general rule of thumb, I’m inclined to take underdogs in the preseason, especially in the openers. Factor in the Dolphins playing at home and having more reason to play potential contributors on both sides of the ball, and I’m leaning hard toward Miami on the spread.

The total for this game opened at 37 points. As of Thursday evening, the consensus Over/Under has dropped a bit to 36.5, with -110 odds on both sides of the line.

Atlanta played to the Over in all three of its preseason games last season, while Miami went 2-1 to the O/U in 2022 exhibition play.

Both teams will be running a lot of rookies and entirely untested players out there on offense for Friday’s game. That’s going to be trouble when there could be some experienced defenders getting reps, especially for Miami. Part of the reason why I like the Dolphins so much in this game is that they should be able to shut down the Atlanta second unit —at least as long as they keep reasonable secondary players in the rotation.

While I’m leaning towards the Under, the number is still currently a bit too low for me to feel comfortable placing a bet.

Falcons vs Dolphins betting trend to know

The Dolphins are 7-3 SU in their last 10 preseason games. Find more NFL betting trends for Falcons vs. Dolphins.

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