A “Battle of the Birds” brings NFL Week 2 betting to an end when the Philadelphia Eagles host the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football.
Philly put its poor finish to 2023 behind it with a big win over Green Bay in Brazil last Friday. Atlanta, however, fell flat in its Week 1 debut with expensive addition, QB Kirk Cousins, looking more like $18 than $180 million.
My early Falcons vs. Eagles predictions and NFL picks expect Philly to fly high once again in Week 2.
Falcons vs Eagles predictions
Early spread lean
Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The offseason odds painted a closer contest in Week 2, setting the Philadelphia Eagles as 3.5-point home favorites. The official Week 2 openers tell a different tale, with bookies installing the Eagles as short as six-point chalk and that spread jumping to -6.5 as of Tuesday morning.
On top of home-field advantage, Philly also boasts a significant rest and preparation edge, having played last Friday. That gives the Eagles ample time to iron out the wrinkles from their Week 1 shootout with the Packers and game plan for this new-look Atlanta Falcons attack.
This Philadelphia offense — now under the control of OC Kellen Moore — looked good in the opener. The Eagles did damage through the air and on the ground, looking especially stellar in the pass game and ranking No. 4 in EPA per dropback in Week 1 with a 55% success rate per pass attempt.
That’s a much bigger challenge for the Falcons defense, which didn’t have to sweat the passing plays too much against Pittsburgh. The Steelers were left with QB2 Justin Fields under center and didn’t threaten downfield, with an average depth of target just shy of six yards.
The Eagles, on the other hand, finished Week 1 with the fourth deepest average depth of target and connected for four plays of 20+ yards against Green Bay. That could make for a long Monday night for Atlanta as Moore balances the playbook between run and pass, using each to set up the next successful play.
Even with this spread moving a field goal from the look-ahead markets to the current line, I see more potential in the Eagles offense putting up the points needed to cover this spread. Toss in the home field and extra prep, and I’m leaning heavily to Philadelphia -6.5.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 47.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
My analysis
I’ve already gushed about the versatility of this Eagles offense, so we know points are coming from Philadelphia. I’m also careful not to discount the Falcons either, knowing Pittsburgh was a tough defense to draw in Cousins’ first game in ATL threads
The Steelers came after the veteran QB, with Cousins facing the second-highest pressure rate among QBs in Week 1. That didn’t give much time for plays to develop and tested Cousins’ mobility in his first game back from a torn Achilles. The Falcons allowed two sacks and five QB knockdowns, leaving their new passer with only 2.2 average seconds in the pocket.
Philadelphia isn’t on the same level as Pittsburgh’s defense, which will make life a little easier for Atlanta’s offense. New defensive coordinator Vic Fangio doesn’t blitz much — if at all — and his disguising schemes do take time for players to comprehend. We saw those growing pains from Philly’s stop unit vs. Green Bay.
The Falcons' two interceptions and botched snap fumble really spoiled any chance of chemistry in Cousins’ first go-around, leaving just over 24 minutes of possession time and only 50 snaps. But while the overall stats suck ass, Atlanta did have a higher-than-expected success rate per play (16th at 43.6%) before those giveaways killed drives.
The look-ahead total for Week 2’s MNF finale was as high as 48.5 this offseason, and that’s where some books opened the official Over/Under, which quickly drew Under action and dropped as much as two points. I’m not agreeing with that early opinion and I’m leaning toward the Over 47.5 on Monday night.
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Falcons vs Eagles live odds
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