Early Falcons vs Raiders Predictions, Picks, and Odds for MNF Week 15

The second of two Monday Night Football games in Week 15 sends the Atlanta Falcons to Sin City for a showdown with the Las Vegas Raiders.

Atlanta's coming off a rough loss this past Sunday and watched Tampa Bay bump it back in the NFC South standings, making this primetime matchup a must-win game. As for Las Vegas, another injury at quarterback has the Silver & Black going way down the depth chart and finding a former Falcons under center.

Read my Falcons vs. Raiders predictions below for a breakdown of my early NFL picks for December 16. 

Falcons vs Raiders predictions

Early spread lean
Raiders +4.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

My analysis
We’ve seen some interesting line movement as it pertains to the QB situation for the Las Vegas Raiders. 

Aidan O’Connell went down with a knee injury in the loss at Tampa Bay in Week 14, leaving Vegas with recently added QB3 Desmond Ridder — the Atlanta Falcons’ former face of the franchise who flopped as QB1 and was traded away this offseason.

Look-ahead lines had the Raiders as 3-point home underdogs in Week 15 before the O’Connell injury. The line re-opened at +6.5 on Sunday night but took instant action on the home team and knocked that spread down to Las Vegas +4.5.

Apparently, the NFL odds don’t see as much of a difference between O’Connell and Ridder in terms of value to the spread. That’s especially true with the Raiders running under a new offense since canning Luke Getsy and giving the keys to interim OC Scott Turner and his aggressive downfield schemes.

Ridder didn’t look too bad in relief of the injured O’Connell on Sunday, finishing 15-for-18 for 101 yards. He’s not much of a threat to throw beyond the sticks but he's yet to throw an interception in 44 passing attempts for the Raiders this season.

Las Vegas could have some bodies back in the rushing corps for Week 15 after RBs Alexander Mattison and Zamir White sat out Sunday’s loss to the Bucs. The Falcons allow the fourth-highest success rate per carry to opponents and the fifth-most rushing first downs this season. 

Atlanta is playing in its second straight road game and has struggled to produce in the role of visitor this season, boasting a 3-3 SU and ATS record with an average margin of -5.3 away from the ATL.

I wouldn’t blame anyone for passing on this mercurial Monday meeting, but if I’m leaning early, I’ll lean toward taking the points.

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Early Over/Under lean
Under 44.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

My analysis
Two terrible defenses should help pump out a surplus of points, right?

We have just that with the Falcons and Raiders hovering near the bottom of most advanced defensive measurements. The big question is now, can either of these teams actually take advantage of that?

Vegas’ playbook is going to be a disjointed mess, as it still works in Turner’s big-play looks with a third-string QB rescued from the couch just a few weeks ago. If the running backs get healthy, we’ll see a dumbed-down playbook with short passes and plenty of handoffs.

As for Atlanta, Kirk Cousins is drawing the ire of Monday morning quarterbacks for his turnover-prone performances the past two games. Cousins has thrown an interception in each of his last four games, including six total picks in the past two contests. 

His piss-poor decision-making has killed the Falcons’ drives and gift-wrapped excellent starting field position to opponents. The Raiders defense isn’t anything to write home about, but it does go for broke on the pass rush with the ninth-highest blitz rate. Cousins has been sacked only 25 times but has suffered a QB hit 44 times — fourth most in the NFL.

Atlanta has topped out at 21 points over its last four games and sits fourth in EPA per play since Week 10. It’s gone 1-3 O/U in that span, with Sunday’s game as the lone Over. The Vikings did the lion’s share of the scoring, putting up 42 points against a closing total of 46.5. 

I’ll lean Under in this messy MNF contest.

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