The NFL Playoffs are finally upon us, with the first six games in store for Wild Card Weekend.
This is a chance for heroes to be made, and I’ve studied the data to find the three players that are most likely to score the first touchdown in their respective games.
Here are my best Wild Card Weekend TD props.
Wild Card Weekend first touchdown scorer props
- Josh Allen First TD (+525 at Caesars)
- AJ Brown First TD (+850 at Caesars)
- Jordan Addison First TD (+850 at DraftKings)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best Wild Card Weekend first TD picks
First TD prop bet #1: Josh Allen
Best odds: +525 at Caesars
Josh Allen is firm favorite to open the scoring against the Denver Broncos, and for good reason.
The Buffalo Bills are heavy favorites, by around nine points with most books. That means we’re more than likely to see a player on the home team score first.
Then there’s Allen’s performances that have pushed him to the front of the NFL MVP odds conversation.
He’s scored 12 rushing touchdowns this season. Just like last season, we’ve seen him put his faith in his legs more as the season progresses, as he’s scored nine rushing touchdowns in his past seven games.
Allen scored three rushing touchdowns in two playoff games last season, and we can expect the team to trust him once again.
First TD prop bet #2: AJ Brown
Best odds: +850 at Caesars
The Philadelphia Eagles host the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, and we’ll see two of the NFL’s best defenses facing one another.
Saquon Barkley had a day when these teams met in Week 1, but the Packers have improved defensively as the season has gone on. They’ll be stacking the box on Sunday in a bid to limit the running back’s effectiveness.
If the Packers try to take Saquon out of the game, then it’s going to come at a cost, and that’s going to be AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith having plenty of opportunities to score.
Brown is just one red-zone target behind Smith this season despite missing four games. Brown has scored seven times, including each of the last three games he’s played. With the Packers focusing on Saquon, we are going to see Brown thrive.
First TD prop bet #3: Jordan Addison
Best odds: +850 at DraftKings
The Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Rams meet on Monday night with the Vikes being narrow favorites. Both teams are packed with weapons, but the Vikings’ offense has been explosive all season. Their defense is far better than that of the Rams as well, so I’m taking a Viking to score first.
Aaron Jones and Justin Jefferson are strong choices, but at +850, it’s Jordan Addison who offers the best value.
Addison only scored once in the first eight weeks of the season, although he did miss two games. Since then we’ve seen Addison become a key part of the offense, scoring eight times.
He’s scored five times in the past five weeks, and with defenses trying to lock down Jefferson, it gives Addison a chance to shine.
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