NFL Futures Bet Now, Bet Later: Late-Season Heroics Vault Burrow into MVP Conversation

The leaves are falling. Kids are picking out Halloween costumes. People are sporting itchy wool sweaters and injecting their veins with pumpkin spice everything.

What time is it? Time to start your Christmas shopping, fool!

The holiday shopping season seems to start earlier every fall and if you’re like me, you love a deal. I make it a mission not to pay full price for anything, including NFL futures.

As the 2022 NFL season soon hits the midway mark, there are a number of discounted NFL odds out there, as the schedule throws us curveballs and the markets overreact to the first-half results. There’s still plenty of football to be played and plenty of value on the futures board, if you know where to look.

Here are some NFL futures bets to consider with NFL Week 8 here.

Packers to make the playoffs (+148 at FanDuel)

Now, don’t rush out and bet this now. Green Bay is catching double digits in Orchard Park this weekend and will likely lose to the Bills, which means this price will only go up. But it’s what lies beyond Buffalo that puts our faith in the Cheeseheads’ NFL playoff odds.

Week 9 will be a second straight road game, but a winnable one in Detroit. Then Green Bay is treated to a home-friendly final stretch that has it playing five of the last eight outings at home, including a very advantageous closing sked. 

The Packers get a late-season bye in Week 14, then play three of the final four contest on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field in December and January. Those three visitors — L.A., Minnesota, Detroit — all come from domed homes. 

On top of that, the NFC North is far from competitive. Chicago and Detroit are shit and the Vikings are the flakiest team in the NFL. The Vikings may sit 5-1 an atop the division, but a closer look and that success is as suspect as Kirk Cousins’ non-nightshade diet. WTF dude?

49ers to win the NFC West (+130 at FanDuel)

This isn’t as good of a price as we saw on the opening NFC West divisional odds, with the Niners as big at +230, or even the adjusted number after a 1-2 SU start (+180). But considering the state of this division and San Francisco’s soft upcoming schedule, we’re grabbing plus-money while we can.

The 49ers can make major moves in the NFC West with a win in Los Angeles on Sunday, set as 1.5-point road chalk versus the Rams. Then they can keep that momentum going until mid-December with a stretch that sees San Francisco leaving the Bay Area only once between Week 9 and Week 14, and that isn’t a true road game either: playing the Cardinals in Mexico City in Week 11. 

Following Sunday’s game in SoFi — which will be packed with Niners fans — San Francisco has a bye in Week 9, which means this injury-plagued roster will return to near full strength for the stretch run. The 49ers play the Chargers at home in Week 10, go south of the border in Week 11, then return for three straight home games (NOLA, Miami, Tampa Bay). 

Overall, the Niners will play six of their final nine inside Levi’s Stadium, with one neutral-site outing at altitude, and have only two road trips in that span, with short hops to Seattle and Las Vegas. That provides plenty of consistency in a division with up-and-down results from the Rams, Seahawks, and Cardinals. Getting the 49ers at plus-money to win the NFC West at this point is good as gold. 

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on October 27, 2022.

Saints to win NFC South (+1,200 at PointsBet)

Heading into Week 8, the Saints have only two wins and are one of the more disappointing teams of the first half of the season. But unlike some other 2022 belly flops, New Orleans has a legit excuse for falling on its face. 

Injuries are up and down the offensive depth chart, leaving this once-promising attack with Andy Dalton at QB throwing to fourth-string WRs and sometimes having RB Alvin Kamara. Yet, despite those missing pieces, NOLA has quietly pumped out the points. If the Saints can get those bodies back and find their forum on defense, the NFC South is there for the taking.

The division is a dog and pony show, with Tampa Bay an odds-on favorite at -200 despite a 3-4 SU mark. The god damn Falcons are the second overall faves. The Falcons! Now, things aren’t going to be easy for the guys from the Big Easy — hence the sky-high odds for NOLA to win the division crown.

The upcoming slate features plenty of quality contenders and a rough road between Week 10 and Week 13. New Orleans has a short week off Monday Night Football in Week 10, visiting Pittsburgh, plays the Rams at home in Week 11, then has back-to-back roadies at San Francisco and Tampa Bay before a much-needed bye in Week 15.

Former coach Sean Payton had his team peaking at the right time, with his Saints winning more than 60% of their games between Week 9 and the regular season finale. Can Dennis Allen do the same? Given the state of the NFC South, it may be worth a wager on what could be one of the best two-way teams in football. 

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on October 27, 2022.

Joe Burrow to win MVP (+1,600 BetMGM)

What Super Bowl hangover? The Cincinnati Bengals are building speed after a bumpy start to the season, having won back-to-back outings and four of their last five since starting 0-2 SU. And behind that turnaround is an explosive offense and an MVP-caliber quarterback who has surged into the Top 5 in NFL MVP odds.

Joe Burrow enters Week 8’s Monday matchup with the rival Browns having thrown for a collective 781 yards the past two games, including six touchdowns to bring his season tally to 15 TD passes. He’s also scored a touchdown on the turf in each of the past three games.

Burrow is second in passing yards, third in completion percentage, third in touchdown passes, and owns a passer rating of 102.7 — fifth highest in the land. Joey Brrrrr isn’t just hitting home run plays either. He’s been challenge by opposing defenses to do damage in other ways, showcasing his decision making, arm strength, and pocket presence as his new-look offensive line comes together. 

Burrow has a great chance to make hay over the next six games (with a bye in Week 10), facing passing defenses that currently rank 15th or worse in both EPA allowed per dropback and pass defense DVOA. That should boost his stats to MVP levels, setting the table for some career-defining matchups in the final few weeks.

Burrow and the Bengals take on the GOAT Tom Brady in Week 15, Bill Belichick’s defense in Week 16, then face two top MVP contenders — Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson — in the final two games of the regular season. If Cincy can stay hot behind Burrow’s “Big D Energy” and not only win the AFC North but flirt with a Top-2 seed in the conference, “Joe Cool” has to get some serious Most Valuable Player consideration.

Derrick Henry to win Comeback Player of the Year (+1,400 at FanDuel)

There are plenty of fun comeback stories in the NFL this season, with Saquon helping the Giants get right and Geno saving money on postage. But let’s not forget about the King. 

Derrick Henry qualifies for Comeback Player honors after missing a good chunk of 2021 with a busted foot and battling back for a short postseason showing in Tennessee. This year, he started a bit slow for his standards, rushing for only 192 yards through the first three games before busting loose in the Titans’ past three.

Henry has posted rushing totals of 114, 102, and 128 and enters Week 8’s trip to Houston with five touchdowns on the season. With Ryan Tannehill questionable with an ankle injury and the Texans ranked dead last in run defense DVOA, Henry will likely get a lot of carries and rack up a ton of yardage Sunday.

A rushing windfall in Week 8 will alter his Comeback Player of the Year odds and that price could continue to slim considering Tennessee’s schedule. The Titans face rushing defenses currently ranked 15th or worse in run defense DVOA in nine of their final 11 games. Measuring that potential success for Henry, against the other contenders, reveals the value in this futures bet. 

Barkley is always brittle and the Giants could come crashing down at anytime with the sked throwing more road games at New York. Smith and the Seahawks may have soared as high as they’re going to go, with his numbers sinking considerably the past two weeks. And Christian McCaffrey just got flipped to San Francisco, where he’ll share touches with the Niners’ other stars.

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