The New York Giants get to escape the Big Apple after a rotten performance at home last Sunday, visiting the Los Angeles Rams for Week 4.
The Giants were blown away by the San Francisco 49ers – or what was left of them - with the Niners missing numerous key players on both sides of the ball due to injury. Now, the G-Men travel across the country as 13-point NFL betting underdogs to play a strong L.A. squad.
These are our NFL free pick and predictions for Giants vs. Rams on October 4.
New York Giants vs Los Angeles Rams betting preview
Weather
Weather will not be a factor at indoor SoFi Stadium. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions for other matchups with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Giants: Saquon Barkley RB (Out), Sterling Shepard WR (Out), Jabrill Peppers S (Out).
Rams: Cam Akers RB (Out), Jordan Fuller S (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Rams are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games vs. NFC opponents. Find more NFL betting trends for Giants vs. Rams.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
There’s no shame in losing a close one at Buffalo last week. The Rams battled against a very strong Bills team, and nearly came away with the comeback win, in what was a tough schedule spot for Los Angeles. It had to fly cross-country on back-to-back weeks but now L.A. returns home to the shiny confines of SoFi Stadium in Week 4.
Sure, if L.A. hadn’t dug itself a 28-3 hole against Buffalo, things would have been different. There’s some concern around first-half defense, with the Rams giving up 51 of their total 71 points against in the opening 30 minutes. And that makes you think twice about laying the lumber with a near two-TD spread.
However, the Giants might not be able to score no matter what half the scoreboard shows. New York has scored a collective 38 points in the first three games and is missing key cogs of its offensive game plan. Quarterback Daniel Jones continues to make soul-crushing mistakes and faces one of the most vaunted pass rushes in the league.
Getting Los Angeles under two touchdowns seems like a steal, even if they spot the Giants a couple points in the first two frames.
PREDICTION: Los Angeles -13 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Jason Garrett seems lost with the New York playbook. Yes, he’s missing his best running back and wide receiver, but it’s obvious he’s grasping for straws and misses having a star-studded depth chart like he did in Dallas most years.
The Giants offense is stagnant and lacks any misdirection to keep defenders guessing. New York has run only 20 total play-action pass attempts so far this season and without the threat of Saquon Barkley breaking off big runs, rival stop units can sit back and defend or tee off on Jones, who has been sacked nine times and crumbles like week-old donuts under pressure.
When the Rams have the football, they’ll give New York two scoops of the ground game. Los Angeles is handing off at a league-high 54 percent, getting solid work from RBs Darrell Henderson Jr. and Malcolm Brown, and may have Cam Akers (day-to-day) back in the mix for Sunday.
New York’s defense has shown some toughness from time to time, forcing opponents to settle for field goals. The Giants have a defensive red-zone TD percentage of 66.67 percent, which is middle of the road for the league in the high-scoring three weeks of action so far.
While L.A. is fully capable of eclipsing this total all on its own, that run game will chew up clock and be happy to walk away with a solid victory over a terrible, terrible team in Week 4.
PREDICTION: Under 48 (-110)
Team Prop Pick
Given the big spread and the lofty total, books know the bulk of the scoring is coming from the Rams.
The L.A. team total is set at 30.5 points which doesn’t seem too tough to topple, considering Los Angeles has posted scores of 32 and 37 points against stronger opponents in its past two contests.
However, those game were fueled by urgency, with the Rams fending off a fourth-quarter surge from the Philadelphia Eagles (scoring 13 points in the final frame), and climbing out of a 25-point, third-quarter hole in Buffalo last Sunday (29 points in the second half).
Sean McVay can very much dictate the pace of this game and with another East Coast matchup coming in Week 5 (traveling to Washington for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff), he’ll keep everything calm and collective as he rests some of his starters in the fourth quarter. A 27-10 win seems about right.
PREDICTION: Los Angeles Under 30.5 total points (-110)
Giants vs Rams betting card
- Los Angeles -13 (-110)
- Under 48 (-110)
- Los Angeles Under 30.5 total points (-110)
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