Green Bay Packers Odds, Predictions, and Betting Preview 2022: Rodgers Ready for Another Run

Aaron Rodgers will be back in Green Bay this year, but he'll be without superstar Davante Adams. Even without the wide receiver's presence, this team will still be able to make plenty of noise. Find out more in our 2022-23 season preview for the Packers.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Aug 29, 2022 • 08:51 ET • 4 min read

After all that grumbling, Aaron Rodgers is back with the Green Bay Packers in 2022. But what did it cost him? Not $150.8 million, that’s for sure. 

The Cheeseheads did send top target Davante Adams to Las Vegas, leaving the NFL MVP to truly earn his money this season. Luckily for Packers backers, a dominant run game and promising defense can help carry the weight in Rodgers’ golden years.

Green Bay’s NFL odds still hold this franchise to a high standard and there’s major pressure on this team to get over its postseason problems and add to A-Rod’s legacy before he’s fed up. The Packers will once again be good but may go about their business in a different way in 2022.

Find out how in our Green Bay Packers NFL betting preview.

Green Bay Packers futures odds

Futures bet Odds
To win Super Bowl +1,000
To win conference +450
To win division -180
Season Win Total O/U 11 (Over -110)
To Make Playoffs Yes -420 / No +350

Best futures bet: Over 11 wins (-110)

We’ll discuss the ranging power rating for the 2022 Packers in the sections below, but to get you an idea of where bookies sit with this team, the win total ranges from 10.5 to 11.5 across the industry with hefty vig on either side of those extremes. 

Some look-ahead markets have Green Bay as a favorite in 13 games with two pick’ems. Others have a clean 15 contests as the betting chalk. Either way, the Cheeseheads are projected to eclipse this 11-win total with plenty of headroom and a quick rundown of the slate easily adds up to 11-plus victories.

Like him or not, Rodgers is the reigning MVP and is backed up by an awesome O-line, underrated rushing attack, and a defense poised for massive improvement against a super-soft slate of pop-gun offenses. The Cheeseheads won 13 games against tougher competition last year and we’ll once again need to include our toes when counting Green Bay’s wins in 2022. 

Green Bay Packers betting overview

What will win bets: Rushing attack

Having a four-time MVP at quarterback helps keep the box light but you can’t take anything away from the Packers’ potent ground game, with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon proving their worth. Green Bay finished sixth in EPA per handoff in 2021 and eighth in rush offense DVOA at Football Outsiders, yet Matt LaFleur dialed up the run just over 41% of the time. 

Now, with the passing game relying on a paper-thin depth chart, the Pack’s run attack has a chance to step out of Rodgers’ shadow. And while some foes are pegged for improvement in 2022, the schedule features 11 games against defenses that ranked outside the Top 15 in run stop DVOA last year (eight vs. DVOA’s of 24th or worse).

Jones and Dillon have a nose for the end zone, scoring a combined 17 touchdowns (rush and receiving) and have the league's No. 2-rated offensive line in front of them. These guys will put the Packers ahead on the scoreboard and then protect those leads for bettors in the home stretch.

What will lose bets: Paltry pass game

The Adams trade and Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s departure left little in the cupboard for Rodgers in 2022. Top tight end Robert Tonyan is slowly returning from an ACL tear, which has Rodgers’ BFF Randall Cobb and Sammy Watkins as the best-known commodities (if those guys survive the final cuts) in the receiver's room. That would be fine if it was 2015. 

Rodgers’ talent can lift those veterans and some younger WRs, but he’s already been very vocal about his disappointment with these options during training camp. Defenses no longer have to double-team Adams and can play this group straight up. If the drops and bad route running stack up, the passing game could get pedestrian, and Rodgers’ fragile ego could flare up again.

Where this trickles down to the NFL bettor is if the market still prices the Packers as one of the most potent passing games in the league. Last season, the Cheeseheads were tops in EPA per dropback (+0.222) and that advanced metric will undoubtedly take a tumble in 2022.

As you’ll see in the look-ahead lines below, Green Bay’s power rating differs book to book — as much as a field goal in some games — and Rodgers and this ragtag bunch of receivers could leave backers a few points short of a cover some Sundays.

Green Bay Packers game-by-game odds

Look-ahead lines for the Packers vary. Some books have the Cheeseheads as the chalk in 13 games with two other contests (at Eagles and vs. Rams) as pick’em lines. Other shops have Green Bay as a favorite in 15 games, with the Packers -2.5 at Philly and -2.5 hosting L.A. 

It’s not just those lines that sway, with Green Bay seeing major discrepancies in some late-season matchups. The Pack range from -4 to -7 visiting the Bears in Week 13 and there are a number of spreads that have a -1 to -2.5 difference in rating. Books are confident the Packers will be great, but how great varies from spot to spot.

Green Bay faces an average spread of -4.18 in 2022 (according to lines at Superbook) and gets a shift in gears from 2021 when it faced the fourth toughest strength of schedule. This year, the Cheeseheads get a schedule ranked out 22nd and sit 27th in my QB SOS with Rodgers giving Green Bay a massive edge at quarterback most weeks. 

Week Opponent Spread Total
1 @ Minnesota -2 48
2 vs. Chicago -10 45.5
3 @ Tampa Bay +3 52.5
4 vs. New England -5.5 48
5 vs. N.Y. Giants (UK) -7 46
6 vs. N.Y. Jets -9.5 46
7 @ Washington -4 47.5
8 @ Buffalo +3.5 52
9 @ Detroit -6.5 48.5
10 vs. Dallas -4 50
11 vs. Tennessee -5.5 48
12 @ Philadelphia -2.5 46.5
13 @ Chicago -7 46.5
14 BYE
15 vs. L.A. Rams -2.5 50
16 @ Miami -2.5 48
17 vs. Minnesota -6.5 45.5
18 vs. Detroit -7.5 45

Green Bay Packers pro betting insights

Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)

Green Bay has quietly morphed into one of the better running and defense-led teams in the league. All the talk is about the receivers, but the rest of the roster is stacked.

Catch the Hitman NFL Release Show on Covers every Thursday and Friday throughout the NFL season!

Adam Chernoff, The Simple Handicap podcast (@adamchernoff)

Green Bay Packers early season forecast

The Packers don’t have to wait long to plant the flag for their fourth straight NFC North title and ninth in the past dozen years — taking on a pair of divisional rivals right out of the gate.

Minnesota measures itself against Green Bay in Week 1, with the Cheeseheads set between -1.5 and -2.5 on the road. Under LaFleur, the Packers are 7-2 straight up in divisional road games but just 5-4 against the spread — a stark contrast to their ATS success vs. the NFC North at home.

And speaking of that success, Green Bay is giving Chicago 10 points at Lambeau Field for Sunday Night Football in Week 2. The Packers own an 8-1 SU record and 7-2 ATS count as divisional hosts in LaFleur’s three seasons in Wisconsin, including a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS mark against the visiting Bears.

The top two contenders in the NFC battle in Pirate Bay when the Packers visit the Buccaneers in Week 3. This is one of the rare spots in which Green Bay is getting points, priced between +3 and +3.5 on the look-ahead lines. The Cheeseheads are a remarkable 9-2 ATS as underdogs in LaFleur’s tenure, including going 4-0 ATS when getting the points in 2021.

Green Bay Packers spot bet

Week 9: @ Detroit (-6.5, 48.5)

Situational cappers sink their teeth into what I like to call the “clubhouse sandwich” of spot bets with Green Bay in Week 9. Like the famed pub grub, which features three slices of bread, this game features three different spot bet angles and could be why look-ahead lines are shy of a touchdown spread.

Angle the first! This trip to Motown is the Packers’ third straight road game, starting at Washington in Week 7, at Buffalo in Week 8, and concluding at Detroit on November 6. Truth be told, this is also the Pack’s fourth away game in five weeks after traveling to London to play the Giants in Week 5, and not getting the customary bye after that international outing (hosting the Jets in Week 6).

Second. A letdown spot looms against the Lions, with Green Bay coming off a HUGE battle in Buffalo on Sunday Night Football in Week 8. That possible Super Bowl preview is a massive uptick in competition during a soft stretch that includes both N.Y. teams, Washington, and Detroit.

And thirdly. A potential look-ahead lurks in the shadows of Ford Field with a key conference game vs. Dallas on the sked the following week. Detroit was afraid of the big bad cheese last season, holding a 17-14 third-quarter lead in Week 2 and beating a half-assed Packers squad in Week 18.

Green Bay Packers totals tip

We’ve touched on the 180 this offense could take in 2022, with LaFleur leaning into the run and Rodgers struggling to connect with a vanilla group of receivers. Honestly, his best target may be RB Aaron Jones, who averaged 7.5 yards per reception in 2021. If the reigning MVP can lift this group to Green Bay standards, he’s worth every bit of that massive extension.

Defensively, the projections for this stop unit range from positive to full-on makeout session with the Packers pegged as one of the NFL's elite units this season. The front seven is bursting with potential and the secondary is building on 18 INTs last year and gets shutdown corner Jaire Alexander back healthy(ish).

Perhaps working in line with that opinion is that this defense goes from the fourth-ranked SOS in 2021 to the 22nd-rated SOS in 2022. That slate is headlined by plenty of questionable quarterbacks and teams making big changes with the offensive playbook.

This year’s totals aren’t too far off what we saw from the 2021 look-ahead lines, despite the downtick in passing pop and an improvement on defense. Green Bay has nine numbers of 48 points or higher and four of those Over/Under numbers are 50-plus. 

Star power: Aaron Rodgers props

Player prop Odds
MVP +1,000
Most passing yards +1,600
Most passing TDs +1,000
Passing TD total 31.5 (Over -115)
Passing yards total 4,050.5 (Over-110
Passing INT otal 6.5 (Under -115)

Best prop: Under 4,050.5 passing yards (-110)

Rodgers closed the 2021 campaign with 4,115 yards through the air on 531 pass attempts in 15.5 games — 10th in yardage — and leading the NFL in EPA per dropback metric with a talented group of targets — including all-world WR Adams.

Green Bay runs one of the more plodding paces under LaFleur, ranked out 28th, 32nd, and 32nd in terms of seconds per play during his three years with the Pack. If Green Bay plays this pace with this group of receivers, Rodgers’ numbers take an instant hit.

Now, factor in more handoffs for an offense that threw almost 60% of the time in 2021, and it really feels like the Packers don’t need Rodgers to press for those big passing gains and rather play the role of a glorified game manager. Whether his contract can contain him to that is another question…

Green Bay Packers trend to know

The worth of home-field advantage to the spread is a hotly debated topic among NFL bettors, especially with home teams winning at a 51% clip and covering just 47% of the time the past three seasons. There are, however, some venues worth that fabled “field goal” to the spread. Lambeau Field is one of them. 

Since joining the Packers in 2019, Matt LaFleur’s team is 22-2 SU and 17-7 ATS at home (71%) in the regular season, including an 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS home mark in 2021 (they did lose at home to San Francisco in playoffs).

The Cheeseheads are set up well for late-season success, with a bye in Week 14 and three of the final four games inside Lambeau Field— all of which force indoor teams to play in the sub-zero temps of the Wisconsin winter. 

Packers' late home games

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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”

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