All eyes are on quarterback Jordan Love, but the pressure of the 2023 NFL season is squarely on the shoulders of Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur.
For the first time in his head coaching career, LaFleur is flying without the net of a Hall of Fame QB running his offense, as the Packers closed the chapter on Aaron Rodgers this offseason.
Just how much is Rodgers worth in the minds of the NFL futures betting markets?
Last season, the Cheeseheads were favorites in 13 of their 17 games heading into the year with a season win total of 11 victories. The 2023 NFL odds have Green Bay laying the points in only five contests with a win total of 7.5.
Rodgers’ departure turns the NFC North on its ear and makes this the most wide-open division in football. I navigate this strange new world in my 2023 Green Bay Packers NFL betting preview.
Green Bay Packers futures odds
| Future bet |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +6,500 | +4,000 | +5,000 |
| Win conference | +3,000 | +1,800 | +2,200 |
| Win division | +400 | +340 | +420 |
| Make playoffs | +180 | +138 | +170 |
| O7.5 wins | -120 | -122 | -130 |
| U7.5 wins | +100 | +100 | +110 |
Best futures bet: Under 7.5 Wins (+110)
Given the transition in the offense and the worries on the defensive side, it wouldn’t shock me to see the Packers start the 2023 campaign 1-4 before their Week 6 bye. At that point, heads could roll within the coaching staff.
The look-ahead lines have Green Bay as a point spread favorite in only five games and maybe two of those are layups, facing the Rams and Bucs at home. While the SOS ratings say the Packers calendar is among the softest in the land (30th), the back nine is no cake walk.
Five of those final nine games come on the road, and two of the four home stands feature top-tier teams in Kansas City and the L.A. Chargers. The bone-chilling Wisconsin winter, which gives the Packers a big home-field edge in the final month, is in play only twice in the last five contests of the season.
Seven wins? Sure. Eight? I doubt it.
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Green Bay Packers betting overview
What will win bets: Running Game
Luckily for Jordan Love, he doesn’t have to carry the offense.
The Packers have a potent one-two punch on the ground with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillion running behind an offensive line that ranks Top 10 in most preseason polls. Green Bay’s run blocking was No. 2 in adjusted line yards at Football Outsiders (4.85) last season.
Even with Rodgers under center, the Cheeseheads looked their best when the ground game was grinding, and went 6-1 SU and ATS when totaling more than 115 yards rushing in 2022.
Not only does a consistent rushing attack take pressure off the young QB, but it makes the game easier when Love does drop back, especially with pre-snap motion and play action sets keeping defenses guessing.
On top of that, LaFleur’s methodical pace (31st in pace with 30.21 second per play) chews up the time of possession (31:13 — eighth highest) and limits the amount of exposure for a dreadful defense.
What will lose bets: Defense
If the Packers do start slow, the office chair of defensive coordinator Joe Barry will look like the Human Torch’s toilet by Week 6. Barry is back for now, despite a lackluster resume and two terrible seasons for the Green Bay defense.
The Packers were 27th in EPA allowed per play and finished 20th in Defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders last season. The pass rush generated a respectable pressure rate but finished with only 34 sacks, and the front seven was absolutely bullied on the ground (five yards allowed per carry) and ranked 31st in EPA allowed per handoff.
The secondary has quality cornerbacks and the Packers recorded 17 interceptions last season, but they’re shallow at safety. Red-zone defense was very bendy but didn’t break (11th in TD%), which kept the Pack in the middle of the pack when it came to points allowed.
But should the stop unit start to leak points, that puts more pressure on the offense to perform. Falling behind early forces LaFleur to abandon the run, meaning an unproven passing game is behind the wheel and Green Bay is getting away from its greatest strength.
Green Bay Packers 2023 schedule
| Week | Opponent | Spread |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @  Chicago Bears |
+3 |
| 2 | @  Atlanta Falcons |
+1.5 |
| 3 | vs  New Orleans Saints |
-1 |
| 4 | vs  Detroit Lions |
+1.5 |
| 5 | @  Las Vegas Raiders |
+1.5 |
| 6 | BYE | |
| 7 | vs  Denver Broncos |
+3.5 |
| 8 | vs  Minnesota Vikings |
+1 |
| 9 | vs  Los Angeles Rams |
-2.5 |
| 10 | @  Pittsburgh Steelers |
+3 |
| 11 | vs  Los Angeles Chargers |
+2.5 |
| 12 | @ Detroit Lions |
+4 |
| 13 | vs  Kansas City Chiefs |
+5.5 |
| 14 | @  New York Giants |
+2.5 |
| 15 | vs  Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
-3.5 |
| 16 | @  Carolina Panthers |
-1 |
| 17 | @ Minnesota Vikings |
+2.5 |
| 18 | vs Chicago Bears |
-2 |
Spreads courtesy of DraftKings sportsbook.
According to the early-bird spreads, the Cheeseheads are in line for five or six wins (with Week 16’s trip to Carolina set at pick’em). Obviously, bookies are a little baffled about just what we’re getting in Green Bay this season, with a dozen of its 17 game spreads sitting between -3 and +3.
My NFL power ratings put the Packers 22nd overall (38.31/100) in a very crowded NFC North, with Detroit’s expectations (10th) well above those of Green Bay, Minnesota (19th), and Chicago (20th).
We’ll get a better idea of the divisional food chain in Week 1 when Packers visit the Bears without “Who’s Your Daddy?” Rodgers and his 24-5 SU record against their rivals in tow. The current market has Green Bay as a 3-point underdog, while my ratings produce a spread closer to +4.
Totals are very tempered for the Green Bay offense under Love, given the uncertainty around his potential as QB1 and LaFleur’s propensity to roll out plays at a snail’s pace. The defense’s inability to stop the run also plays into the lower totals, as foes can chip away and play ball control on the ground.
The Packers have an average Over/Under total of 42 points for 2023, which is a notable tick down from the Rodgers-fueled numbers in the 47-point range last year (Green Bay finished 8-9 O/U in 2022).
Green Bay Packers schedule spot bet
Week 17: at Minnesota
A short week is always tough, but the Bears’ Week 5 trip to Washington is compounded by the fact that this Thursday nighter will be the team’s third road stop in four games, all played within an 18-day period.
We mentioned the road-heavy home stretch for Green Bay, with this challenge coming to a head at Minnesota in Week 17.
This Sunday Night Football showcase will be the Packers’ second straight road game and third in four weeks. Adding to that crunch is a Monday night game at New York in Week 14, which stuffs all these contests into a 20-day window.
The LaFleur-led Packers have been less than stellar on the road in divisional games, going 8-4 SU but just 6-6 ATS — compared to a red-hot 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS mark versus the NFC North at home. How much of that record belongs to Rodgers remains to be seen.
Oddsmakers have this Week 17 spread at Packers +3.5, while my ratings forecast a point spread of +4.
Star power: Jordan Love props
| Prop | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|
| MVP | +6,000 | +3,500 | +5,000 |
| OPOY | +10,000 | OTB | OTB |
| Pass yards leader | +5,500 | +6,000 | +5,000 |
| Pass TD leader | +6,500 | +5,000 | OTB |
| O21.5 pass TD | -110 | +100 | -105 |
| U21.5 pass TD | -110 | -128 | -125 |
| Pass yards total | 3,350.5 | 3,300.5 | 3,200.5 |
Best prop: Over 3,200.5 passing yards (-115)
In a somewhat perfect world, you either have a young QB supported by veteran receivers, or a veteran passer propping up a youthful receiving corps. The combo of an inexperienced quarterback and fresh-faced WRs can be troublesome.
Love is surrounded by many promising pass catchers, but his Top 4 targets have a combined two years of pro experience. His starting tight end is also a rookie, taking away the TE safety blanket that many young QBs need early in their careers.
However, the 2023 player projections are siding with rapid growth from this offense, as most of Love’s passing yard expectations sit beyond his lowest available yardage prop total of 3,200.5.
These forecasts average out to around 3,400 yards through the air — a bit lower than Derek Carr’s awful output in 2022. Make sure to shop around for Love props, as they range from this low of 3,200.5 to as high as 3,350.5 yards.
Green Bay Packers betting insights
Covers Betting Analyst
Let’s not forget Aaron Rodgers lost to Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson, Taylor Heinicke, Josh Allen, and Jared Goff in consecutive games from Weeks 5 through 9 last year... and finished 21st in EPA.
If Matt LaFleur can make Jordan Love an average QB behind a great O-line/run game in a poor defensive division, the Packers have a shot at the wide-open NFC North, especially with a Top-6 SOS: A first- (+400 at DraftKings) or second-place (+340 at DraftKings) finish is very possible, and finishing ahead of the Bears and Vikings can be done with seven or eight wins.
Look at Green Bay's opening 10 weeks: at CHI, at ATL, NO, DET, at LV, BYE, at DEN, MIN, LAR, and at PIT. That could be six wins right there — with Carolina and Tampa still on deck, as well as home vs. Chicago.
Covers Senior Betting Analyst
Has a team ever entered a season with this big of a chip on its shoulder?
The off-field version of Aaron Rodgers is doing a complete 180 as a New York Jet compared to his final seasons in Green Bay, which should give the Packers plenty of motivation after a disappointing 2022.
Motivation, however, probably won’t be enough for this team to make any sort of noise: While Jordan Love will get most of the preseason headlines, it’s flying under the radar that the defense needs a big bounce back after finishing 28th in yards allowed per play in 2022 — jumping headfirst into a full-on rebuild could be on the menu in the near future for the Packers.
Green Bay Packers trend to know
Any long-running trends for the Cheeseheads must be taken with a healthy dose of salt considering Aaron Rodgers likely played a large role in those results.
However, also baked into those outcomes is one of the tougher venues in the NFL.
Since coming in as head coach in 2019, Matt LaFleur is a stellar 27-5 SU and 21-11 ATS inside Lambeau Field during the regular season, including a 5-3 SU/4-4 ATS count in 2022.
Shift those home stands to the final month of the calendar — when the Wisconsin winter sets in — and the Pack are 10-1 SU and 7-4 ATS in home games between Week 13 and Week 18 over the previous four seasons.
Unlike the past three years, when the bulk of the Packers’ final games were played at home, the 2023 schedule sends three teams to the “Frozen Tundra” in the final six games, and one of them is Kansas City on Sunday Night Football.
Packers late-season home games
- Week 13 vs. Kansas City (+6)
- Week 15 vs. Tampa Bay (-4.5)
- Week 18 vs. Chicago (-2.5)
