The Kansas City Chiefs are prohibitive favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars in their first NFL playoff game this season. The Chiefs are clearly superior on paper, but that’s not the surface the game will be played on.
Isiah Pacheco opened some eyes this season in the Kansas City backfield, and he should play an important role in this game. Here are my top Pacheco NFL player prop picks for Saturday afternoon’s Divisional Round affair.
Also, be sure to check out our Jaguars vs. Chiefs props and Jaguars vs. Chiefs picks and predictions for more great analysis and bets!
Isiah Pacheco prop pick and same-game parlay
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Isiah Pacheco best bet
Isiah Pacheco helped revive what has at times been a stagnant Chiefs ground game when Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle) was No. 1 on the depth chart. CEH — out since Week 11 — is expected to return to practice but not be active this week, meaning Pacheco will once again land the lion’s share of the carries.
In his final nine games of the season, Pacheco averaged a robust 70.3 yards per game, with just over five yards per attempt. That includes his 83-yard performance against the Jaguars in Week 10. The Rutgers product crossed the 48.5-yard plateau in all but one of those nine tilts, and did so by double-digit yards in seven of those eight affairs.
If he maintains that elevated yards per carry figure, he’ll pay off for Over bettors on this prop with just 10 rushing attempts. But Pacheco figures to get more carries than that, as he ran with the ball at least 13 times in seven of his last nine games, including his 16 carries against Jacksonville in their earlier meeting this year. NFL teams by and large have been unafraid to test the Jags’ rush defense this year, as Doug Pederson’s troops have faced 27.6 rushing attempts per game, 13th-most in football.
Assuming Kansas City isn’t on the ropes at any point in this one, Pacheco should get a steady dose of handoffs and sail over this relatively low rushing yards bar.
Prop: Isiah Pacheco Over 48.5 rushing yards (-106)
Isiah Pacheco SGP
Over 50.5 rushing yards
Over 7.5 receiving yards
Anytime TD
I like Pacheco to be featured prominently in the Chiefs’ offense, and not just in the running game, so I’ll build my Same Game Parlay around him accordingly.
Jerick McKinnon is certainly the running back Patrick Mahomes feels most comfortable with in the passing game, but he and Andy Reid have to mix things up to keep the Jacksonville defense honest. When Kansas City feels like feeding its tailbacks through the air, there’s usually more than enough passes to go around.
McKinnon was targeted at least three times in five of the Chiefs’ six games between Week 12 and Week 17, and averaged 58.2 receiving yards in that span. Pacheco received far less volume through the air than McKinnon in that stretch (10 receptions, compared to 28), but still averaged 19.5 receiving yards per game. Most books have Pacheco’s receiving prop at a paltry 7.5, a number he could easily clear with just one catch.
The Jaguars were exceedingly generous with running backs in the passing game this year, allowing the second most receptions per game and yards per game in the NFL.
I’m playing a slightly higher rushing yards Over in a Same Game Parlay at PointsBet, as Caesars is not offering a receiving yards prop on Pacheco as of Friday morning, but my reasons for liking the Over remain the same. I’ll throw in an anytime touchdown wager on Pacheco too, as he’s found the end zone in four of his last seven contests, including Weeks 17 and 18.
Same-game parlay: +447 at PointsBet
