After last week’s statement win against the 49ers, the Green Bay Packers will look to keep their one-game lead on top of the NFC North as they host rookie QB Jake Luton and the 1-7 Jacksonville Jaguars.
Green Bay has had trouble staying consistent this year as they haven’t won back-to-back games since early October. The Jaguars are winless on the road (1-3 ATS) and are Week 10’s biggest underdogs at +13.5 (51.5 O/U).
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Jaguars vs Packers on November 15 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers betting preview
Weather
The forecast for Green Bay is calling for temperatures in the high 30s with morning rains ending before the 1 p.m. ET start time and winds blowing west up to 30 mph. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Jaguars: Gardner Minshew QB (Out), Dakota Allen LB (Out), Luc Barcoo CB (Out), Devine Ozigbo RB (Out), Laviska Shenault Jr. WR (Out).
Packers: Allen Lazard WR (Out), Jaire Alexander CB (Out), Kevin King CB (Out), Will Redmond CB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Under is 4-1 in the Packers’ last five games following a game where they accumulated 350 total yards. Find more NFL betting trends for Jaguars vs. Packers.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
If you subscribe to the idea of a “let-down spot” then this game should be circled. The Pack are coming off a dominant win against a team that easily beat them twice last year, including the NFC Championship. Green Bay also has a big game against the 5-3 Colts next week, making 13.5 points a lot to cover in a game they may have already labeled as a win.
With rookie QB Jake Luton making his first NFL start last week, the Jaguars backdoored the Houston Texans as seven-point underdogs. The Texans are one of the league’s worst defensive teams but Green Bay also owns the 29th-ranked DVOA defense per Football Outsiders and could be without PFF’s No.1 corner in Jaire Alexander who is in concussion protocol.
One of our die-by rules is not to take bad defenses on massive spreads, and at 13.5 points this is just too much for a Green Bay team that has had trouble playing decently in back-to-back games of late.
PREDICTION: Jacksonville +13.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Combined, both teams are 4-0 O/U in their two most recent games, but weather conditions could damper the long ball on Sunday.
With winds at that magic number of 20 mph, cold temps (high-30s) and possible rain on the schedule, we’re not being fun bettors on Sunday and taking a long look at the Under.
Green Bay will have both RBs Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams for Week 10’s matchup against the Jaguars’ 23rd-ranked run defense. The Packers could go run-heavy, protecting Aaron Rodgers in the process, and just eat the clock in a game that the Florida-based Jaguars will likely not enjoy playing.
If coach Matt LaFleur can keep Luton off the field for long stretches, it will be tough for the QB to build a rhythm on Lambeau’s frigid tundra. We’re assuming Luton is the starter after coach Doug Marrone - who is coaching on borrowed time - said Luton is “likely” to start.
The Packers’ team total sits at 33.5, which could be a tough number to reach if winds, rain and chills are all a factor, even against the Jaguars’ defense.
PREDICTION: Under 51.5 (-110)
Jaguars vs Packers Betting Card
- Jacksonville +13.5 (-110)
- Under 51.5 (-110)
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