Jalen Hurts Odds and TNF Props: Aerial Attack Misses the Mark

The Minnesota Vikings began their 2023 season with a disappointing home loss against the presumed bottom-of-the-barrel Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They now will be forced to travel on a short week for a Thursday Night Football matchup against Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles, who narrowly came away with a win on Sunday after a flat offensive performance vs. the New England Patriots. The Eagles are favored by nearly a touchdown in the game that will kick off the NFL Week 2 odds.

Can Hurts put together a performance tonight more in line with the MVP-esque performances of last year, or will the offensive struggles continue?

Continue reading for free NFL picks on Hurts props for the Vikings vs. Eagles Thursday Night Football game on September 14. For full-game analysis and a breakdown of the TNF odds, check out Josh Inglis' Vikings vs. Eagles predictions.

Jalen Hurts TNF prop picks

• Hurts u21.5 completions
• Hurts u21.5 completions + Smith o4.5 receptions + Scott anytime TD

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Jalen Hurts TNF prop pick

Under 21.5 completions (-115)

Although the Eagles walked away with a 25-20 win on the road against the Patriots, their offense was certainly uninspiring in the process. In fact, the offense only scored 18 points (and 10 of those points came in the first quarter) and they had four three-and-outs, an additional four-and-out after going for it on fourth down, and another possession in which they fumbled on the first play.

Jalen Hurts put together a 22 of 33 game for just 170 yards and one touchdown, adding 37 yards on nine carries on the ground. It was a pedestrian showing compared to his performances last year, and some may expect an immediate bounce-back. However, many are overlooking that this is an offense that is facing a change at offensive coordinator after Shane Steichen left in the offseason to become the head coach of the Colts. With that kind of change, growing pains can occur at the start of the season.

But given that the personnel itself has stayed the same, most markets have priced 2023 Hurts like the 2022 version of Hurts (if not even stronger). For example, his completions prop is set at 21.5 for Thursday, yet he hit that mark in just five of his 15 regular season games last year (with three of those coming in the first five weeks), and just once in his three playoff games.

And when narrowing his performances last year down to games where the Eagles were favorites of a touchdown or more (like they are for Thursday), he went over 21.5 completions in just one of six games. He had just 22 completions in that one instance.

Prop: Under 21.5 completions (-115 at DraftKings)

Jalen Hurts TNF same-game parlay

Jalen Hurts u21.5 completions

DeVonta Smith o4.5 receptions

Boston Scott anytime TD

+1,400 at BetRivers

Despite the play on his Under completions, there are still Eagles skill position players who are capable of putting up a solid box score on Thursday night. Devonta Smith is one of them, as he leads the team in target share when facing teams that pair blitzes with zone coverage. He'll go against a Vikings defense that played the most zone and used blitzes at the highest rate in Week 1.

The #Vikings played the most zone in Week 1 (87%) and blitzed at the highest rate (47%).

Target shares in 14 games where Goedert, Devonta, and AJB all played together against zone & blitzes:

- DeVonta Smith: 25%
- AJ Brown: 21.9%
- Dallas Goedert: 21.1%

(Per @FantasyPtsData)

— Connor Allen (@ConnorAllenNFL) September 13, 2023

Next we'll look at the backfield. After letting Miles Sanders walk, signing Rashaad Penny, and trading for D'Andre Swift, the Eagles' backfield was up for grabs.. However, reports out of camp suggested Kenneth Gainwell was actually the one to emerge as the lead back for Philadelphia.

Gainwell did so in Week 1, handling 14 of the 16 running back carries (87.5%) and four of the team's seven running back targets (57.1%). But news broke Wednesday that Gainwell will miss Thursday's game, leaving a massive question mark in the backfield.

Some believe Swift will take over the role, but he handled just one carry for three yards and had one catch over two targets for zero yards. Rashaad Penny profiles better as an every-down back, but was a healthy scratch in Week 1.

In terms of goal-line opportunities, this staff may opt to go with Boston Scott given that he is the only back that will suit up on Thursday that was on the roster last year. And to his credit, he did have 11% of the team's running back rushes inside the red zone. The only other Philly backs to have more red zone touches than him last year were Miles Sanders (who is now gone) and Kenneth Gainwell (who is now out for Thursday).

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