Jalen Hurts Odds and Wild Card Round Props: Philly QB Continues to Struggle

After the Philadelphia Eagles limped to the finish line and fell into a Wild Card spot, the Birds will have to fly to Tampa Bay to take on a swashbuckling Buccaneers team that’s shown more than anyone expected. NFL odds for Tampa were all over the place this season, but now it's one of the few teams remaining on the Super Bowl odds board.

With the Eagles' offense losing its mojo and the Buccaneers' defense having Pro Bowl talent at every level, a banged-up Jalen Hurts is going to be in a tough spot on the road without his best playmaker. Despite that, Wild Card odds are still favoring Philly.

You can see how I’m betting on Jalen Hurts' odds as I dive into tonight's matchup to give you my free NFL picks below.

For more NFL playoff coverage, check out our Eagles vs. Buccaneers picks and predictions!

Jalen Hurts Wild Card Round prop picks

• Under 19.5 completions
• Under 19.5 comp/Under 221.5 pass yds/Over 36.5 rush yds

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Jalen Hurts Wild Card Round prop pick

Under 19.5 completions (-105)

Quite a few factors are working against Jalen Hurts in this game. Not only is weather expected to be messy, but the former second-round pick has been dealing with a dislocated finger on his throwing hand.

After his atrocious showing against the New York Giants where he dislocated the finger, Hurts hadn’t thrown a football until Friday. While he was a full participant in both Friday and Saturday’s practice, gripping a slick ball in the rain isn’t an easy task.

On top of that, he’ll be without AJ Brown, who has been ruled out with a knee injury he sustained in the loss to the Giants. Even Devonta Smith is dealing with an ankle injury that caused him to miss the game against New York. While Smith is slated to be back, these injuries could not have come at a worse time for the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Super Bowl hangover has hit Nick Sirianni’s team, it just took until December to kick in. This is an offense that ranks seventh in EPA per play, ninth in EPA per dropback, and fourth in EPA per rush, however, the party that looked like it would never end in Philly did in the Week 13 loss to the 49ers.

Over the last six games of the season, the Eagles went 1-5 and ranked 14th in EPA per play, 16th in EPA per dropback, and seventh in EPA per rush. The passing game’s flaws have started to show and Hurts has played arguably the worst football of his career.

Over 17 games this season, he’s averaging 20.7 completions per game on 31.6 attempts and has completed at least 20 passes in nine outings. But, he’s hit 20 completions in just two of his last nine.

It will be even tougher now without Brown and against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that’s been playing its best football down the stretch. When looking at this Tampa Bay defense’s season in totality, it’s been fine. Todd Bowles' unit is 18th in EPA per play, 22nd in EPA per dropback, and fifth in EPA per rush. Tampa is also allowing just 248.9 passing yards per game.

Theoretically, that should lend well to Hurts testing this secondary, but Bowles has been able to pull this pass defense together over the same period that the Eagles have fallen apart. Since Week 13, Tampa Bay is 10th in EPA per play on defense, 12th in EPA per dropback, and 11th in EPA per rush. 

Over that six-game stretch, Tampa Bay is 5-1 and has sacked opposing quarterbacks 17 times while picking off four passes. The pass rush coming alive, led by rookies YaYa Diaby and Calijah Kancey, has been one of the biggest differences.

Inserting those two with Vita Vea on the defensive line, Lavonte David at linebacker, and Swiss Army knife defensive back Antoine Winfield Jr. has helped reinvigorate this group. The Bucs have 48 sacks this season and Diaby leads the team with 7.5.

When these teams played in Week 3 — a 25-11 Eagles victory — Hurts completed 23 passes and was sacked just once. However, Kancey wasn’t healthy for the game and Diaby had yet to emerge as a starter. These are very different teams than they were in September. 

Prop: Under 19.5 completions (-105 at bet365)

Jalen Hurts Wild Card Round same-game parlay

Jalen Hurts Under 19.5 completions

Hurts Under 221.5 passing yards

Hurts Over 36.5 rushing yards

30% boost available

+450 +585 at bet365

The Eagles have always been a team that wants to run the football and lean on Hurts' legs in sticky situations. While he did throw for a career-high 3,858 yards this season, his average passing yards per game dropped by nearly 20.

He’s thrown for at least 222 passing yards eight times in 17 games but has only done it twice since Week 9, and over that stretch, he’s thrown seven interceptions to just 10 touchdown passes.

Without Brown — and given his injured finger and the weather — it’s hard to imagine Hurts returning to form on the road in a playoff game. From Week 9 to 17, excluding the Giants game where he left injured, he’s averaging 207.9 passing yards per game.

If the passing game struggles continue, Hurts’ legs are an X-factor for unlocking the running game and forcing the defense to commit an extra defender to him on every play. This season his rushing numbers are down, but he’s still averaging 35.9 per game on 9.2 attempts.

His stretch of passing struggles from Week 9 to 17 also coincides with an uptick in rushing yards per game. During that eight-game stretch, he averaged 40.1 rushing yards on 9.6 attempts.

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