Jared Goff Odds and MNF Props: Airing it Out in the Motor City

When the Detroit Lions traded for Jared Goff, he was written off as nothing more than a placeholder while head coach Dan Campbell and GM Brad Holmes waited to draft their franchise quarterback. Instead, Goff has turned into a folk hero of sorts in his third season in the Motor City as he leads the top team in the NFC North.

While he’s coming off his worst outing of the year against the Baltimore Ravens, Goff is turning in his most admirable season yet and is poised to get back on track against a Las Vegas Raiders team that’s struggled to find consistency outside of Pro Bowler Maxx Crosby. NFL Week 8 odds like his chances.

Here's how I’m betting on Jared Goff odds as we dive into the MNF odds in my free NFL picks below.

For more MNF coverage, check our Raiders vs. Lions predictions and the best MNF prop picks.

Jared Goff MNF prop picks

• 35+ pass attempts
• Goff 35+ pass attempts/Goff Over 267.5 pass yds/LaPorta Over 3.5 receptions

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Jared Goff MNF prop pick

35+ pass attempts (+140)

Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson hasn’t shied away from having Jared Goff fling the rock all over the field this season. The Lions rank fifth in passing yards per game at 258.6 while sitting ninth in EPA per play and eighth in EPA per dropback.

On pace for 4,619 yards and 27 touchdown passes, Goff has been impressive, ranking seventh in EPA per play among quarterbacks and ninth in success rate. 

Given the Lions' efficiency throwing the ball and the fact that starting running back David Montgomery is out once again, Goff will need to throw the ball to capitalize on the Raiders' wonky secondary.

When Montgomery is healthy, the Lions love to use him as a hammer, but in the games he’s either been inactive or left injured, Goff has averaged 41.2 passes and thrown at least 35 in three of four.

Looking at the season as a whole, Johnson has been pass-happy whether Montgomery has been healthy or not. Goff is averaging a shade over 35 per game (36.5) and has hit at least 35 attempts in four of seven games.

The emergence of Jahmyr Gibbs in his second start last week against Baltimore will only influence the Lions to pass more given the first-round pick's ability to create mismatches in the passing game like a pint-size Alvin Kamara. In his start against the Ravens, Gibbs saw 10 targets, catching nine of them for 58 yards while carrying the ball just 11 times.

Matching up with the Raiders, the Lions should be able to attack the secondary consistently, especially with Detroit’s well-built offensive line and Maxx Crosby being the lone pass rusher striking fear in the hearts of quarterbacks.

Vegas defensive coordinator Patrick Graham’s unit has found itself in lucky situations against struggling quarterbacks like Russell Wilson, Kenny Pickett, Jordan Love, and Mac Jones this season, not to mention Bears undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent, yet still ranks just 26th in EPA per dropback.

Between Gibbs, fellow rookie Sam LaPorta, and Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is currently listed as questionable with an illness, Johnson can find plenty of enticing matchups against this Raiders defense. 

The three starters in the Raiders secondary who haven’t missed time — Marcus Peters, Marcus Epps, and Trevon Moehrig — have all taken their lumps. Peters is allowing a 107.3 QB rating when targeted and has given up 402 yards, Marcus Epps is allowing a QB rating of 110.7, and Moehrig is surrendering a completion percentage of 76.2%.

They’ve also dealt with injuries to fellow starter Nate Hobbs, who is listed as questionable, while Peters and backup Jakorian Bennett were limited in practice this week. Depth piece David Long started last week and allowed an 83.3% completion rate against the Bears.

With Johnson’s pass-happy attitude, Goff’s steady play, the Lions' versatile pass-catching weapons, and the Raiders banged-up secondary, the franchise quarterback will be asked to pass aplenty.

Prop: Jared Goff 35+ pass attempts (+140 at bet365)

Jared Goff MNF same-game parlay

Jared Goff 35+ pass attempts

Jared Goff Over 267.5 passing yards

Sam LaPorta Over 3.5 receptions

30% boost available

+500 +650 at bet365

When Johnson leans on his passing game, Goff tends to throw for a big chunk of yardage. In the four games he’s thrown at least 35 passes, he’s gone Over 267.5 passing yards three times.

On the season, the former No. 1 overall pick is averaging 271.7 passing yards and he’ll need just 37 passes to hit the Over if he keeps up his 7.4 yards per attempt. To do that, he’ll need his pass catchers to show up, especially if St. Brown isn’t healthy enough to take the field.

LaPorta, a second-round pick out of Iowa, has been a rookie sensation in Detroit with his versatility allowing him to line up anywhere from in-line to out wide at X. His fluidity as a route runner has created all kinds of mismatches and has been a huge reason why the Lions offense has been so efficient.

The 22-year-old is on pace for 85 receptions for 916 yards and seven touchdowns, an all-time rookie tight end season, and has been Goff’s second most targeted receiver (49) after St. Brown (69).

Despite being a rookie, Goff hasn’t been afraid to go to LaPorta in big moments with his 18 first-down grabs tied for fourth in the league among tight ends and tied for second among all rookies. He’s averaging seven targets, five receptions, and 54 yards per game. 

The Raiders have also given up 34 receptions to tight ends this season (4.8 per game) and allowed rookie tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Luke Musgrave to each catch at least five passes. More importantly, LaPorta has topped 3.5 receptions in six of seven games, including all four games where Goff has thrown at least 35 passes.

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