Rookie by title only, Washington Commanders star Jayden Daniels has been as advertised – if not better – to start his NFL career, and he’ll look to upset the top-seeded Detroit Lions at Ford Field on Saturday, November 18.
While it’s a tall task ahead, my top NFL picks for the Jayden Daniels odds expect the rookie to have another solid night in the spotlight.
Jayden Daniels player prop picks
- Best bet
Over 234.5 passing yards
(-117 at Caesars) - SGP pick
Daniels Over 234.5 passing yards
Daniels Over 22.5 passing completions
Ertz Over 29.5 receiving yards
(-117 at Caesars)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Jayden Daniels prop pick
My best bet
Over 234.5 passing yards (-117 at Caesars)
My analysis
Make no mistake, the Detroit Lions are going to show up on Saturday. I simply believe in Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels.
He’ll be forced to air it out with the Commanders as their defense will be unlikely to slow down the Detroit offense, and the Lions still have thirteen defensive players on either Injured Reserve or the Non-Football Illness list.
The injuries have taken a toll, too.
Detroit surrendered the most passing yards (1,736) and the second-highest yards per pass attempt (8.15) in the NFL over the final six weeks of the season, while also allowing the fifth-highest EPA per play.
Daniels completed 24 of 35 pass attempts for 268 yards against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during Wild Card Weekend, and I’m expecting another sterling showing from the rookie.
After all, he finished Top 10 in PFF passing grade, adjusted completion percentage, and EPA+CPOE during the regular season — with the fancy stats reinforcing an aced eye test.
I’m anticipating Daniels approaching 250 passing yards on Saturday, so it’s worth highlighting Caesars has the QB priced at +120 to hit that benchmark in the alternate passing yards market.
Jayden Daniels same-game parlay
Jayden Daniels Over 234.5 passing yards
Jayden Daniels Over 22.5 passing completions
Zach Ertz Over 29.5 receiving yards
Detroit blitzed at the second-highest rate (34.6%) during the regular season, so look for Washington offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury to scheme easy and quick completions for Daniels. Additionally, the rookie’s mobility and ability to throw on the run will buy extra time for his pass-catchers to create separation.
Daniels has also completed 23 or more passes in nine of 15 games with a full snap count dating back to the regular season.
Turning to the final leg of this same-game parlay, Commanders tight end Zach Ertz has been a reliable weapon in the passing attack, and he’s recorded 30 or more receiving yards in 11 of 17 games dating back to the regular season.
This isn’t a nightmare matchup for Ertz, either.
While the Lions only allowed six tight ends to reach 40 receiving yards against them this season, five of those players did so over the final six weeks of the season. Detroit also allowed a healthy 7.71 yards per pass attempt to the position during that stretch.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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