Jets vs Broncos Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 5: Zach Holds Own in Battle of Wilsons

After almost knocking off the Chiefs in prime time last week, Zach Wilson and the New York Jets head to altitude to take on the Denver Broncos, who just gave up career-high numbers to Justin Fields last week before making a miraculous comeback. The home side has climbed to a 2.5-point favorite in the NFL odds with a total that is also heading north after sitting as low as 40 on the look-ahead. 

With some confidence coming off a solid performance vs. the Chiefs and facing arguably the worst defense in football, should bettors be backing Wilson for a second straight profitable week?

Here are my free NFL picks and predictions for this Week 5 matchup of Jets vs. Broncos on October 8.

Jets vs Broncos odds

Jets vs Broncos predictions

New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson had a completion total of 15.5 last week and annihilated it with a 28-for-39 performance vs. a very good K.C. defense. Now he gets to face a Denver Broncos defense that allows a league-worst 8.9 yards per pass attempt and gave up 335 yards to Justin Fields (pass total was 185.5), 309 yards to Tua Tagovailoa (pass total was 264.5), and 299 yards to Sam Howell (pass total was 201.5) in consecutive weeks. 

Not only are opposing QBs topping their passing totals vs. the Broncos, but they’re also crushing them. With a modest passing total of just 200.5 yards, Wilson is lined up to pass that total and also hit the 250-yard mark for solid plus money.

The Broncos may get some bodies back on defense in lead linebacker Josey Jewell, who was full participant at practice on Thursday, but starting safety Justin Simmons has been limited and missed the last two games. It’s also a secondary that lacks depth with two backup safeties on the IR. 

If Denver sells out to stop the run and forces Wilson to beat them, then Wilson should be able to exploit one-on-ones downfield vs. a suspect secondary. Wilson ranks 31st in completion percentage when facing pressure but Denver ranks 31st in pressure rate and dead last in hurry percentage at 2.5%. 

This is a very good matchup for Wilson, whose weakness might not be exploited vs. this defense. The O-line is healthy, the matchup is great, the game script is in the Over’s favor, and Wilson has legit pass-catchers.

I was so angry at myself for not taking Fields’ Overs last week, and I won’t make that mistake in Week 5 with another modest total vs. the Broncos. I’m also putting a half unit on Wilson’s 250-plus passing yards at +320.

My best bet: Zach Wilson Over 200.5 passing yards (-115)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Jets vs Broncos same-game parlay

Zach Wilson 250+ passing yards

Zach Wilson Over 29.5 pass attempts

Zach Wilson Over 1.5 passing TDs

+800 at bet365

It's a Wilson stack, which might not sound appetizing, but a lot is lining up for the Jets QB. His passing-yard total is very low at 200.5 yards, which is giving 250+ a great price for a number that can be topped easily either in garbage time or without it.

THE BLITZ is projecting over 31 pass attempts for Wilson, as 31 to 32 pass attempts per game is the league average. Fields had three TD passes in his first 16 pass attempts last week vs. Denver in the first half, and no other team has given up more pass TDs than Denver at 3.3 per contest.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Jets vs Broncos spread and Over/Under analysis

Before a competitive performance vs. the Chiefs in prime time last week where the Jets saw a lot of respected money, New York was +3 on the look-ahead and then reopened at +2.5, hitting as low as +1.5 before moving back to +2.5 on Friday afternoon. 

Denver is winless ATS this season and pushed last week as a 3-point favorite vs. the Bears, trailing in that game 28-7 with 16 minutes to play. They were blown out by 50 points in the game before that, and in Week 2, blew a 21-3 lead to the Commanders. 

Denver is a bad team with the lead and a bad one without it. It’s the league’s worst defense, which might not be as miserable as the metrics say as the 70-20 loss is skewing those numbers. But when Fields and Sam Howell carve you up, something is wrong. 

New York will be missing starting corner D.J. Reed, who has been ruled out with a concussion. The Jets are a little thin at corner with two more depth players out. That leaves them with six healthy corners on the full roster. 

Denver will be getting back Jewell, who missed Week 4 and is one of the more important pieces of this defense. However, on the other side of the ball, running back Javonte Williams was DNP at practice on Wednesday and limited on Thursday. Williams exited last week’s win with a hip injury and will have to likely get in a full practice on Friday to have a shot at playing. 

It’s hard to trust the Broncos and their defense as anything other than a pick ‘em or worse. The Jets showed some signs of life last week and the Broncos are one of the worst defenses at generating pressure, which is Wilson’s biggest issue. If this spread hits 3, it won’t be there for long. 

The total could see some weekend Over love, just like Denver and Chicago saw last week. Denver is a very good Over team, as it can give up points in bunches and showed last week that it can score late, too.

This total was 40.5 on Sunday night and hit as high as 44 this week. There is still some room for the Over to move at its current 43.5. With some perfect weather conditions in Denver, it wouldn’t surprise me to see this close as high as 44.5, which is still 2.5 points shorter than last week’s Bears vs. Broncos closing total.

Jets vs Broncos betting trend to know

The New York Jets have hit the Game Total Under in seven of their last 11 away games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Jets vs. Broncos.

Jets vs Broncos game info

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