Jets vs Broncos Week 7 Picks and Predictions: New York Pulls Off the Upset in the Mile High City

The New York Jets will look to extend their three-game winning streak when they visit the reeling Denver Broncos for a Week 7 matchup on Sunday.

The Jets are off to a surprising 4-2 start and are now just one game behind the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East. The Broncos have lost three straight games to fall to 2-4 on the year.

This battle of teams heading in different directions should be a tight contest, as both New York and Denver bring stingy defenses to the table. We’ll take a closer look at how this might play out in our NFL picks and predictions for Jets vs. Broncos on October 23.

Jets vs Broncos best odds

Jets vs Broncos picks and predictions

When the New York Jets suffered a 24-9 loss to the Baltimore Ravens to open the season, New York head coach Robert Saleh said he was “taking receipts” from those making fun of his team.

Saleh may be ready to cash in those receipts, as the Jets have looked like a legitimate playoff contender since that first game. New York has won three straight games. That streak culminated last week when the Jets shut down Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers in a 27-10 win at Lambeau Field.

That’s not the first time the New York defense has stepped up big this season. The Jets are allowing just 313.2 yards of offense per game, and are holding opposing teams to a solid 21.3 points per game. During their three-game winning streak, no opponent has scored more than 20 points against the Jets.

That’s a bad sign for a Denver Broncos' offense that is struggling to find success. The Broncos have only managed to score more than 16 points once this season. Their average of 15.2 points per week is the lowest number in the NFL this year. Quarterback Russell Wilson has yet to find his footing in the thin Denver air, having thrown just five touchdown passes in his first six games with the team.

The Broncos have stayed in games thanks to an outstanding defense that is holding opponents to just 16.5 points per game. Outside of allowing 32 points to the Las Vegas Raiders, Denver has held all of its opponents to 19 points or less. That just hasn’t been enough to get wins due to its floundering offense. The best way to move the ball against Denver has been on the ground.

The Broncos have allowed 4.4 yards per carry, which is right around the league average. That works for New York, as young quarterback Zach Wilson is still learning the ropes. The second-year QB is completing just 56% of his passes and has thrown just one touchdown in three games since taking over the starting role from Joe Flacco.

On the other hand, the Jets have found success on the ground. Rookie running back Breece Hall is averaging 5.1 yards per carry and is getting stronger by the week. In his last game, he ran for 116 yards and a TD on 20 carries against Green Bay, the third-straight week in which he reached the end zone.

The Jets should be able to score some points on Sunday, taking a slow and steady approach in which Hall does the most damage while Wilson sticks to short, manageable passes. It’s harder to see how Denver’s offense will find any success based on what Wilson and company have shown so far this season.

I like the Jets in this matchup, and rather than take a single point, I’m going to bet on them to win the game straight up. We can get even money on the New York to win this game outright, and that’s where I’m putting my money.

My best bet: Jets moneyline (+100 at bet365)

Jets vs Broncos spread analysis

When sportsbooks started offering action on this game last weekend, the Broncos opened as a field-goal favorite at most books, with some setting the line at 3.5 or four points. That number has come down significantly over the week, and some sites briefly had this game as a tossup before the market settled on Denver as a one-point favorite.

The Jets are 4-2 against the spread this season and are 3-0 ATS on the road. New York has obviously outperformed its preseason expectations. Yet, the market isn’t making major adjustments just yet, perhaps waiting for the Jets to prove their winning ways over a larger sample before assuming they are for real (particularly on the offensive side of the ball).

Those who want to back the Broncos on Sunday will point to the fact that they’ve lost two games in overtime and another by a single point. Yet that’s what you might expect from a team that plays outstanding defense and struggles to score points. Denver has a -8 point differential on the year, while New York is at +15.

At best, these teams are similarly talented, but there are growing signs that the Jets are a young team on the rise while the Broncos are heading toward a disappointing season. As I noted above, I’m more interested in taking the Jets on the moneyline rather than taking the points here.

Jets vs Broncos Over/Under analysis

The total on this game has come down significantly since opening. There were look-ahead lines that set the Over/Under at 43.5, and early Sunday lines still put the total at 42.5. As of Friday, the consensus total has settled at around 38 points. If you could have gotten in at one of those higher numbers, the Under was the clear play.

These teams only combine to average 39 points per game, and they allow a combined 38. Neither team attempts many potentially explosive plays, and while both throw the ball the majority of the time, neither does it particularly well. The Broncos are averaging -0.02 EPA per pass, while the Jets are even worse at -0.10.

Even at a total of around 38, the Under deserves consideration. The Broncos have played only a single game that went Over that total all year and have stayed under 30 points on three occasions. New York has played a higher-scoring brand of football, however, with four of its games featuring at least 39 total points.

It’s unlikely the Jets are going to push Denver into any kind of a shootout. That said, the totals on the market right are low enough that I’m staying away. If you want to bet, I’d take the Under at 38.5 at sites like DraftKings, which is still offering -110 on that number as its main line.

Jets vs Broncos betting trend to know

The Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. Find more NFL betting trends for Jets vs. Broncos.

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