It’s a battle of two undefeated teams with questions at quarterback as the Los Angeles Chargers head to Acrisure Stadium to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
With Justin Herbert’s status up in the air, Pittsburgh’s a 2.5-point favorite, and we’re breaking down why this game is going to be short on points in our Chargers vs. Steelers predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, September 22.
Chargers vs Steelers prediction
My best bet
Under 34.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Pittsburgh Steelers are improbably 2-0 despite sitting 25th in the NFL in points per game this season (15.5). It’s another Mike Tomlin masterclass with this Justin Fields-led offense being far from potent.
In a similar situation heading into the matchup, the Los Angeles Chargers could be down Justin Herbert, who’s listed as questionable with an ankle injury. Assuming he does play, he’ll likely be hobbling and limited by his ankle sprain.
Regardless, LA looks like a completely different team under Jim Harbaugh anyway. This is a run-first team with Greg Roman as offensive coordinator, and it's in for a rude awakening against a Steelers defense that’s allowing the second-fewest points per game in the league (8.0).
Pittsburgh is third in EPA per play on defense, second in EPA per dropback, and fourth in EPA per rush. The Steelers are allowing the fifth-fewest yards per game in the NFL (260.5) and with a banged-up Herbert being less of a threat, defensive coordinator Teryl Austin should be able to sell out to stop the run.
That’s the key to shutting down this Chargers offense, which only ranked 20th in EPA per dropback when Herbert was at full strength.
However, it’s the other side of this matchup that’s the key to this Under hitting, with the Steelers’ inability to score and the Chargers’ defense thriving.
The only team allowing fewer points than Pittsburgh is LA - 6.5 points per game - and this defense should cause all kinds of trouble for Fields.
The Steelers are 23rd in EPA per play on offense and Fields is 21st in EPA per play among QBs. And for a team that’s supposed to have an explosive run game under offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, it’s been far from it. The Steelers are just 30th in EPA per rush.
Meanwhile, the Chargers have been the best defense in the league through two games. Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter has the Chargers first in EPA per play, EPA per dropback, and rush EPA.
Lackluster passing games and devastating defenses? Smells like an Under to me.
Chargers vs Steelers same-game parlay
Under 34.5
George Pickens Under 3.5 receptions
J.K. Dobbins Under 68.5 rushing + receiving yards
Between the Steelers’ less-than-stellar passing attack, and the offensive lines' penchant for getting plays called back due to penalty, George Pickens caught just two passes last week against the Denver Broncos.
He may have an even harder time finishing with Over 3.5 receptions this week, too. The Chargers allow the sixth-fewest passing yards in the league (147.0).
If the Chargers are going to shut the Steelers' offense down, Pittsburgh’s defense needs to slow J.K. Dobbins. I’m throwing his receiving yards into this prop for a little extra breathing room - his rushing line is 52.5, but he has just four receiving yards in two games.
The Steelers are allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per game (76.5) and with Herbert hurting, you best believe T.J. Watt and Co. will be focused on Dobbins all game.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Chargers vs Steelers odds
Chargers vs Steelers live odds
Chargers vs Steelers opening odds
- Spread: Los Angeles +2.5 | Pittsburgh -2.5
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +110 | Pittsburgh -130
- Over/Under: Over 39 | Under 39
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Chargers vs Steelers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Steelers opened as a 2.5-point home favorite and while the line did dip to -1.5, it’s come back up to between -2.5 and -3.
- Both Pittsburgh and LA are 2-0 ATS this season.
- The Over/Under opened as high as 39 but has slowly dropped to 34.5 with the news of Herbert’s ankle injury.
- Both the Steelers and Chargers are 2-0 betting the Under this season.
Chargers vs Steelers betting trend to know
The Los Angeles Chargers have only hit the game total Over in four of their last 20 games (-13.60 Units / -62% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Chargers vs. Steelers.
Chargers vs Steelers game info
| Location: | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Sunday, 9-22, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Chargers vs Steelers latest injuries
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