Jets vs Browns TNF Prop Bets: Ford Torches Jets On the Ground

Prop bet #1: Siemian shut down

With Zach Wilson still dealing with concussion symptoms, we'll take a look at Trevor Siemian's odds. The poor guy doesn’t just have to deal with the best defense in the NFL, but it’s expected to be a rainy evening in Cleveland.

That’s a recipe for a poor performance from the former seventh-round pick out of Northwestern. Siemian has played in just five games in the last two seasons while making only two starts. In that limited action, he’s completed 53.5% of his passes and threw four interceptions to two touchdowns.

Now he must take on Jim Schwartz’s devastating defense that’s been the catalyst for the Cleveland Browns surviving a rollercoaster at the quarterback position. The Browns rank first on defense in EPA per play and first in EPA per dropback.

Schwartz, who has been arguably the best coordinator in the NFL this season, has turned the Browns into the best pass defense in the league in just his first season with Cleveland. His group has allowed the least yards in the NFL per game by nearly 30 — 260.3 per game with the Chiefs being next at 287.3 per game — and it’s giving up only 160.1 passing yards per game.

This is a defense that’s been able to hold legitimate starting QBs like Joe Burrow, Brock Purdy, and Russell Wilson Under 171.5 passing yards and it feasted on middle-tier and backup passers. Kenny Pickett, Ryan Tannehill, and Clayton Tune each threw for less than 110 yards against this pass defense.

The most incredible part of it has been Cleveland’s defense staying relatively healthy this entire season with Pro Bowl play coming at every level. The combo of Myles Garrett, Za’Darius Smith, and Obo Okoronkwo has been unblockable with a combined 22.5 sacks. Those three will harass Siemian throughout this game, especially with him behind a New York Jets offensive line that’s given up the second-most sacks in the league (61).

When he can get the ball out of his hand cleanly, things won’t be much easier against the Browns secondary. Denzel Ward, Martin Emerson, and Greg Newsome II are arguably the best cornerback trio in the NFL. Those three have held opposing QBs to a passer rating below 74 when targeted.

Even if the Jets want to give some relief to Siemian by leaning on the run game, the Browns rank eighth in EPA per rush and are allowing the 10th least rushing yards per game thanks in part to Dalvin Tomlinson and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah.

Trevor Siemian prop: Under 171.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: David and Goliath

On the flip side, the Browns seem to have lucked into a better QB situation despite a season-ending injury to Deshaun Watson. Flacco has emerged from the darkness to bring belief back to Cleveland this season.

Since taking over as starter in Week 13, the Browns have gone 3-1 behind Flacco’s arm and willingness to let the ball loose. He’s thrown for 1,307 yards and 10 TDs in just four games and ranks a respectable 20th in EPA per play, 18th in success rate, and 20th in CPOE.

He hasn’t been a star, but he’s given his pass catchers a chance and breathed life into the Browns passing attack. Both Amari Cooper and David Njoku have benefitted from Flacco stepping in and both could top their receiving yards totals against the Jets.

Cooper’s is set at 58.5, but he’ll have a tougher time with these talented New York cornerbacks. The Jets cornerbacks have helped the defense rank sixth in EPA per dropback while allowing just 168.6 passing yards per game, the second lowest in the league after Cleveland. Jeff Ulbrich’s defense has also given up the least receiving yards to receivers per game this season (105.5).

While the Jets haven’t necessarily struggled against tight ends, allowing 44.6 yards per game to them, there’s more value in David Njoku's odds to get to 50 yards with how many targets he’s seen this season.

Having a career year, the former first-round pick has been a focal point in Cleveland’s passing game with five receptions for 49.9 receiving yards on 7.6 targets per game. Since Week 7, he’s had no fewer than six targets per game and has only once had less than four receptions.

On the season, he’s gone Over 49.5 receiving yards per game seven times, with all seven coming since Week 7. Since Flacco took over in Week 13, Njoku is averaging six receptions for 64 yards on 9.2 targets per game. 

The Jets have allowed at least 50 receiving yards to tight ends in seven games this season, including three of the last four.

David Njoku prop: Over 49.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Ford tough

With two of the best defenses in the NFL clashing in this Thursday Night Football matchup points may be hard to come by, but the Browns should be able to generate a little something on the ground.

While the Jets are 10th in EPA per rush on defense, Ulbrich’s unit has allowed the ninth most rushing yards per game this season (126.2) and given up the 13th most rushing touchdowns (13).

That's good news for those backing Jerome Ford's odds to put together a solid performance as the Browns lead RB. Ford has been splitting carries with Kareem Hunt for much of the season, but in recent weeks the second-year back has outpaced the veteran.

The difference has been Ford’s usage in the passing game, especially since Flacco took over in Week 13. In four games with Flacco at the helm, Ford has 57 touches to Hunt’s 42. Ford has scored at least one touchdown in six of 15 games this season, including in two of four games with Flacco at quarterback. 

Jerome Ford prop: Anytime touchdown scorer (+130 at bet365)