It looks as though the NFL saved the best Monday Night Football matchup of the season for last, as the Buffalo Bills will visit the Cincinnati Bengals in a battle of AFC powerhouses to wrap up Week 17.
Much of the pregame hype has focused on quarterbacks Josh Allen and Joe Burrow — and we’ll highlight the latter signal caller in this column. Without further ado, here are my three favorite Joe Burrow props for Monday, January 2, 2023.
Also, be sure to check out Jason Logan's full Bills vs. Chiefs betting preview and Josh Inglis' best MNF prop bets.
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Joe Burrow MNF prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Joe Burrow MNF props
Buying the insurance
It could be a busy night under center for Joe Burrow, but that doesn’t mean he’ll rack up the passing yards, or rushing yards for that matter.
The Bengals have attempted the sixth-most passes of any team in the NFL this season, and the 11th-fewest rushes. Running back Joe Mixon has struggled to some extent following a 1,200-yard campaign in 2021, rushing for only 787 yards through 13 games. He’s also had only six rushing touchdowns — with four coming in one game — compared to 13 last season.
Mixon should encounter difficulty trying to establish the ground game this week, as the Bills boast the fourth-best run defense in football (104.4 yards allowed per game). That means Burrow might have to drop back more often than he’d like against this unit.
Buffalo may only rank 15th in passing yards allowed per game this year at 213.3, but Burrow would still have to buck a trend in order to clear the Over on this lofty line. The Bills have allowed no more than 233 passing yards in each of their last five contests.
They also rank 12th in enemy completion percentage (63.4%), 10th in yards per catch (10.3), and sixth in yards per attempt (6.1), which all suggests that Burrow will have a frustrating night at the office.
Sheer volume may help Burrow stand a chance of clearing his elevated passing yards line of 283.5, but factor in his lack of rushing prowess and a generous line for Under bettors in this combined market, and this play becomes much more appealing.
Prop: Under 300.5 passing + rushing yards (-115)
Nothing fancy
As I alluded to above, the Bills’ rush defense is a strength for them, and it extends to opposing signal callers as well. Line movement could perplexingly see Burrow’s longest rush line rise before game time, but I’ll gladly take the Under now at these odds.
Buffalo can be quite stingy when it comes to opposing quarterbacks who try to move the chains with their legs, as they’ve surrendered only 15 rushing yards per game to enemy passers — 11th in the NFL.
Many signal callers haven’t really bothered to try their luck, as the Bills have seen the sixth-fewest quarterback rushes against (3.53 per game). They also have yet to surrender a rushing touchdown to a quarterback this season, sharing that distinction with only the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Burrow doesn’t take off much, averaging only 4.8 rushes per game this season. His yards per carry figure is an uninspiring 3.4. Not only has Burrow not recorded a rush of at least nine yards in eight games this season, but he hasn’t even reached nine total rushing yards in seven contests.
Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth, just take the Under here.
Prop: Longest rush Under 8.5 yards (+100)
Burrow does a boo-boo
It bears repeating that the passing attempts should stack up for Burrow on Monday night. That makes him more prone to committing a mistake through the air in this spot, and the Over on his interception prop looks very tempting.
Though the Bengals will gladly take nine passing touchdowns from Burrow across a three-game span, they could certainly live without his four interceptions in that same stretch. That includes his two-INT outing against the New England Patriots in Week 16, marking the third time this season that he’s tossed multiple passes to the wrong team.
Buffalo’s defense can be as opportunistic as any in the NFL, as it's racked up 14 interceptions on the campaign, good for sixth in the league. The Bills’ offense can be as difficult as any in the game to keep up with, and even the cool-under-pressure Burrow could get caught forcing a play, especially late in proceedings.
Prop: Over 0.5 interceptions (-117)
