Jordan Love Odds and TNF Props: The QB of the Future... Today!

The Jordan Love era in Green Bay hasn’t been all roses, but the Packers quarterback heads into a Thursday Night Football matchup vs. the Detroit Lions fresh off a comeback win over the New Orleans Saints.

With injuries on his offensive line, young pass catchers, and both his top wide receiver and Pro Bowl running back missing time, Love has been solid given the circumstances. Tonight, the cavalry returns in the form of Christian Watson and Aaron Jones.

Given how the Lions run defense has looked to start the season, Packers head coach Matt LaFleur could lean on his young franchise quarterback to pull off the win at Lambeau Field where the NFL odds have the Lions as 1.5-point road favorites in Week 4. Let's break down the current TNF odds and how they specifically relate to Love & Co.

For more TNF coverage, check out Josh Inglis’ Lions vs. Packers predictions, Shawn Wronka's Lions vs. Packers props, and more NFL picks.

Jordan Love TNF prop picks

• Over 232.5 passing yds
• Over 232.5 passing yds + Over 1.5 passing TDs

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Jordan Love TNF prop pick

Over 232.5 passing yards (-110)

Despite struggling with inaccuracy through the first three games of the season (31.5% uncatchable ball rate, highest in the NFL), Jordan Love has been putting up numbers in an offense that takes advantage of its best playmakers.

In two of his three starts, he’s easily cleared the 231.5 passing yards line he’s set at for Thursday Night Football and Matt LaFleur hasn’t shied away from tossing the rock around with the former first-round pick.

It’s not that Love has been bad, either. He’s only started four games in the NFL and is surrounded by youth and injuries. He’s currently third in EPA per play among quarterbacks this season, behind just Tua Tagovailoa and Brock Purdy.

Love is also first in the NFL in air yards, proving he isn’t afraid to push the ball deep, averaging 10.6 per pass. Deshaun Watson is second in the league with a full yard less per attempt (9.6).

In last week's win over the New Orleans Saints, even with his struggles, Love attempted 44 passes to bring his average up to 32 per game. That was without Aaron Jones and Christian Watson while dealing with two key drops from rookie Jayden Reed (both of which would have been touchdowns).

With Jones back in the lineup at running back, after hitting 86 receiving yards in Week 1, and Watson healthy as the go-to X-receiver, Love is poised to hit the Over on 232.5 passing yards.

As a rookie in 2022, Watson emerged as one of the best big-play threats in the league with 584 yards from scrimmage in his last eight games while averaging 16.7 yards per touch.

Adding his dynamic speed on the outside to an offense that’s seen Reed, Romeo Doubs, and rookies Luke Musgrave and Dontayvion Wicks step up to make plays will help put even more pressure on a banged-up Lions secondary.

Detroit’s starting safety CJ Gardner-Johnson is on IR, while fellow secondary starters Kerby Joseph and Emmanuel Moseley have both been limited in practice this week. That leaves cornerback Cameron Sutton and rookie nickel Brian Branch as the only healthy starters on the backend.

This season, the Lions defense has given up an average of 251.6 passing yards to starting quarterbacks. They’ve been a tough unit to run on, ranking eighth in rush EPA on defense, but more susceptible to the pass where they rank 17th in EPA per dropback.

Given Detroit’s front seven's ability to swallow up the run — teams are averaging just 72 rushing yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry against them — LaFleur should be more inclined to go to the air.

Between the return of Watson and Jones, the matchup with Aaron Glenn’s defense, and the way Love has been slinging the ball deep, he should be in for a big Thursday Night Football debut, even if he doesn’t get the win.

Prop: Over 231.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)

Jordan Love TNF same-game parlay

Over 232.5 passing yards

Over 1.5 passing TDs

+200 at bet365

Even with a few injuries on the offensive line, Love’s debut on Thursday Night Football is a major opportunity for the country to get a good look at the future in Green Bay.

This is especially true when factoring in the return of both Jones and Watson to a lineup full of impressive young playmakers.

Despite being without his WR1 for the first three weeks of the season, Love has thrown seven touchdowns to just one interception. In both of his first two starts of the year, he cleared 1.5 total touchdown passes, throwing for three in both games.

In Week 3 against the Saints, while he only threw one touchdown pass, he added another on a QB sneak on a drive that saw Reed drop a guaranteed touchdown two plays earlier. On the drive before that, which ended in a field goal, Reed dropped another would-be touchdown.

So while he only threw one against New Orleans, the opportunities were there for him to cross the 1.5 threshold, which gives some confidence that he’ll be able to get over the hump in Week 4 against the Lions. 

A big factor in this will be the return of Watson, who won’t just be good for Love’s passing yards prop, but his explosive plays with the ball in his hand helped him score nine touchdowns in just 11 starts as a rookie.

Not only will Watson provide juice to the Packers offense — and Love’s stats — but he’ll open things up for Doubs (who has three touchdowns in three games), Reed (who has two), and Musgrave (who has the size and athleticism to be a major red-zone threat).

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