Josh Allen Odds and SNF Props: Allen Racks Up Pass Yardage vs Dolphins

It doesn't get much better than this for an NFL regular season game. The Miami Dolphins will host the Buffalo Bills as the Fins will aim to do something they have not accomplished since 2008 on Sunday Night Football in Week 18 and win the AFC East.

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen is trying to prevent that. He's had quite the adventurous season with some extreme highs and some low points that were just the same. Still, he sits in the season's final week with the opportunity to cash in on the majority of preseason goals his team would have set.

You can see how I'm betting the Josh Allen odds as we dive into the Sunday Night Football odds in my free NFL picks below.

For more Sunday Night Football odds coverage, check out our Bills vs. Dolphins predictions and the best Sunday Night Football prop picks as well as our spotlight on Tua Tagovailoa odds.

Josh Allen SNF prop picks

• Josh Allen No TD
• No TD/Over 243.5 pass yds/G. Davis o37.5 rec yds

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Josh Allen SNF prop pick

Josh Allen No TD (-105)

Over the last five games, Allen has been a machine on the ground with eight touchdowns. With that in mind, in this essentially all-or-nothing game for the Bills, this will be a popular bet.

The argument is an easy one, right? Nothing will be left on the table, and Allen will put it all on the line to get his team in the playoffs. That includes risking his body, particularly in goal-line situations, to score points for his team. With that in mind, you'll undoubtedly see the "no" get to a better number, and some of this handicap is projecting that it closes at plus money. Shall we be bold and tempt fate that Allen doesn't run one in?

Let's start with an important note on pricing. 

This number has been nuked in the market. A week ago, it closed at +150 or better in some spots. This week, you're looking at a closing number of -125 as being considered a "good price." What's changed to justify that? Well, not a lot. If your justification for playing this is that the Bills must win to get in the playoffs, then I understand. However, that's been the case for Buffalo over the last few weeks.

Betting on Allen to get the job done at plus-money prices was much more attractive. Now this price has created value in the opposite direction. There's added motivation for Allen, given that he'll enter this week tied with Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts for most rushing touchdowns by a quarterback (15), but I'm just not buying that has much of an impact here. Certainly not one that justifies over a 75-cent move.

Now, let's look at the matchup aspect.

From a raw numbers perspective, there is value here in fading the public in a big way. Allen has started 11 career games against the Dolphins and failed to score a touchdown in seven. That includes not doing in two of the last three times they've faced off. That's a percentage of not scoring against them of 63%. If we were looking at things from that percentage, this number should be closer to -170 than what we have. We're in the unique position to fade a massive public bet and get immense value because of that. 

The opponent means little here, quite frankly. It's worth mentioning, however, that Miami's defense is among the worst in the red zone, allowing scores 67% of the time. While some would look at that and make even more of an argument for Allen, I look at it and say that Buffalo is likely to score with fewer plays in "goal-to-go" situations, making it less likely for him to touch it. Either way you slice it, though, there needs to be more justification for this number to be where it is.

We will take our chances that the Dolphins can do something they've done more often than not against Allen, and that's keep him out of the endzone. 

Prop: Josh Allen No TD (-105 at theScore BET)

Josh Allen SNF same-game parlay

Josh Allen No TD

Josh Allen Over 243.5 passing yards

Gabe Davis Over 36.5 receiving yards

+483 at theScore BET

Yet again, we are in a place where the market takes more precedence with recency than matchup. Yet again, we are in a place where I value the matchup more than what has happened recently.

Recently, the waters for the Bill's passing offense have been muddy. It failed to eclipse 200 yards through the air in two of its last three games and has yet to throw for more than 300 yards since a November overtime game against the Eagles. There's been a commitment to running, and though it hasn't been pretty, it's gotten them to this position. 

However, recently, Allen has dominated this matchup through the air. 

Allen has thrown for over 300 yards four times against the Dolphins. That includes a 400-yard performance last season and a 320-yard performance earlier this season in Buffalo. Allen has had more success against Miami through the air than any opponent, throwing for a whopping 3,004 yards in 11 matchups against them.

The end of last season almost saw us in an identical situation. The Bills offense had reached an impasse through the air and arrived in a matchup with the Dolphins off one of the lowest passing totals of Allen's career against the New York Jets (142 yards). 

What happened? It's the same thing that's happened so often throughout this matchup. The offense clicked through the air, and the Wyoming product threw for 304 yards on 25 of 40 passing.

The Dolphins are coming into this one with a defense that resembles a mash unit. They are missing more-or-less the three most influential players from their defense. Leading pass rushers Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb will miss out, as well as regular Pro Bowl cornerback Xavien Howard. The holes will be there against a defense that ranks just about average in passing defense and DVOA but has been cooked recently.

It'll also see CB Eli Apple matching up with more "No. 2" wide receivers without Howard. Something that isn't encouraging for the Dolphins, which are facing Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis this week. 

Give me the value here going, once again, against the market. The Dolphins will be able to score on a somewhat maligned Bills defense, so game theory could undoubtedly play a role here. As long as the weather stays away (and it appears that it will), this one has the chance of turning into a shootout. 

I like Allen to use his arm rather than his legs this Sunday, and he should find Davis loose in the secondary.

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