Justin Herbert Odds and MNF Props: Herbert Swarmed by Gang Green

There's no denying Justin Herbert has a cannon for an arm, but sometimes it does more harm than good to the Chargers. With the Jets' secondary buzzing, our NFL picks are anticipating Herbie to throw at least one pick.

Sam Farley - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Nov 6, 2023 • 18:01 ET • 4 min read

MNF odds continue on with the Los Angeles Chargers facing the New York Jets at MetLife. Week 9 odds have the Bolts favored to reach .500, although that's easier said than done against this New York defense.

I'm going to get stuck into identifying the very best Justin Herbert odds to bring you my favorite NFL picks centered around the Chargers' field general.

Be sure to also check out our Chargers vs Jets betting preview and our favorite MNF prop picks!

Justin Herbert MNF prop picks

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Justin Herbert MNF prop pick

Over 0.5 INTs (+115)

Monday Night Football serves us up a big matchup this week and with all due respect to Zach Wilson, I'm going to be focusing on the best quarterback in the game, Justin Herbert.

I’m expecting Herbie to look at air out the ball all night long, but on the flip side of that this Jets’ defense is good and they have a strong secondary that has allowed just 184.4 passing yards per game. 

With that in mind, I wanted to pick something that focuses on the Jets’ defensive strengths but also highlights what we’ve seen from Herbert in recent weeks, which is why I settled on him to throw an interception at +115. 

Through seven games, the Jets have eight interceptions and are one of just six teams who have made more picks than they’ve played games. Then if we take a look at Herbert’s performances this year we can see that he has four interceptions through seven games, a record that is only one better than his opposite QB on MNF, Zach Wilson.

That says a lot about how Herbert has dealt with an offense missing some of its better receiving options. He’s had all four of those picks in the past four games, which coincides with Mike Williams being missing from the team. Not only is Williams out of Monday Night Football and on IR, but we also know that Joshua Palmer and Jalen Guyton are also missing... meaning that Keenan Allen will need Quentin Johnston and Simi Fekhoko to step up and make plays.

I’m expecting Herbert to need to force the play at times here which should lead to him being more likely to get picked off, which I’m happy to bet at +115.

Prop: Over 0.5 interceptions (+115 at bet365)

Justin Herbert MNF same-game parlay

Herbert Over 0.5 INTs

Herbert Over 1.5 passing TDs

Allen anytime TD

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I'm backing Herbert to throw Over 1.5 passing touchdowns. Despite a pick, I think we’re going to see the Chargers continue to rely on Herbert’s arm. It’s their best offensive weapon, and given what we’ve seen from the team this year, we can’t be confident in them leading throughout.

In seven games Herbert has thrown 13 passing touchdowns, so the two TDs per game average that we’ll need him to hit here is a real possibility.

Finally, I’ll be backing Herbert’s best receiving option, Keenan Allen, to find the end zone. He only has four TDs on the season but has been playing some of the best football of his career — and I’m confident he’ll be force-fed here because of the injuries to the other players in the WR corps.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Betting Analyst

Sam is based in the United Kingdom, where he grew up living and breathing soccer, before discovering - and playing - a different kind of football at the University of Bristol. He’s worked in the media covering soccer and the NFL for the better part of a decade, and has been a regular on the Matchbook NFL Podcast. His work has also appeared in a wide range of publications including The Telegraph, The Independent, VICE, and MSN.

The search for great betting value is a daily one, and Sam always hunts out big prices with a particular focus on player props. Sam’s best advice for bettors is to track their bets on a spreadsheet, that way you can keep an eye on your P&L but also the types of bets and sports that you are most successful in. He also recommends using a variety of different sportsbooks, with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power amongst his favorites.

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