Lions vs 49ers NFC Championship Props and Best Bets: Niners Have Purdy Good Air Assault

Prop bet #1: Chuck it downfield

Brock Purdy's longest pass completions last week were a pair of 32-yard connections with George Kittle and I'm expecting even bigger bombs on Sunday.

Detroit's secondary has given up explosive plays all season and was 31st in the NFL in yards allowed per completion (11.3). Purdy finished the regular season leading the league with 13.9 yards per completion and ranked fourth in average completed air yards with 7.2. 

The O/U for Purdy's longest completion is set at 40.5, a number he has eclipsed in seven of his last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Lions have allowed eight of the last 10 QBs they've faced to go Over their longest completion prop.

Even if wideout Deebo Samuel is unable to suit up (he's currently questionable with a shoulder injury), Purdy has other deep threats like Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk and he'll shred a Lions defense that's routinely getting torched deep. 

Brock Purdy prop: Longest completion Over 40.5 yards (-108 at FanDuel) 50% live boost available

Prop bet #2: Christian stays contained

Christian McCaffrey is arguably the best running back on the planet but his rush attempts total looks way too high here. McCaffrey has had fewer than 20 carries in seven straight games and 12 of his last 13 carries overall.

In addition, Detroit's defense has done an excellent job at shutting down the run, holding opposing running backs to a league-low 60.5 rushing yards per game and 3.5 yards per carry during the regular season. Expect head coach Kyle Shanahan to rely on his aerial attack instead to take advantage of a vulnerable Lions pass defense.  

While you might think that a positive game script could lead to more rush attempts for McCaffrey keep in mind that even in recent blowout wins against Washington, Arizona, Seattle, and Philadelphia he went below this number. Even if the Niners do jump out to a big lead, they'll likely give some carries to capable backup Elijah Mitchell instead of risking injury to their All-Pro running back.

Christian McCaffrey prop: Under 19.5 carries (-130 at BetMGM) 33% live boost available

Prop bet #3: Gibb me the ball

Jahmyr Gibbs was taken 12th overall in last year's draft and while he split carries with David Montgomery, he has emerged as Detroit's primary pass catcher out of the backfield. 

Gibbs had four catches for 40 yards against the Bucs last week and hauled in four passes for 43 yards versus the Rams in the Wild Card round. 

Expect Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to use Gibbs in the passing game against a San Francisco 49ers defense that's been vulnerable against pass-catching backs. San Francisco finished the regular season 25th in the league in receiving yards allowed per game (36.8) and 28th in receptions allowed per game (5.3) to opposing running backs.

Jahmyr Gibbs prop: Over 22.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)