Early Lions vs 49ers Predictions, Picks, and Odds for MNF Week 17

The Detroit Lions will look to take one step closer to the NFC's top seed when they travel to San Francisco on Monday, December 30, for a showdown with the 49ers.

The Lions are in a dead heat for their division and will want to win this rematch of last year’s NFC Championship game. Find out my leans for this prime-time tilt in my early Lions vs 49ers predictions and NFL picks!

Lions vs 49ers predictions

Early spread lean
Lions -4 (-105 at FanDuel)

My analysis
Not only have the San Francisco 49ers lost six of their last seven games, but they’ve also failed to cover the spread in each of those defeats. And we aren’t talking about a miss by one or two points. In fact, the 49ers have failed to cover by nine or more points in five of those six losses.

Injuries have been a huge part of their struggles, and having a depleted roster won’t help against one of the best teams in the NFL. The Detroit Lions have lost just twice this season, and the two teams to have beaten them both happen to rank in the Top 5 in scoring.

The 49ers come into the game having lost two more offensive linemen in Aaron Banks and Jaylon Moore, while Spencer Burford is questionable and awaiting MRI results. 

This unit was already beyond depleted and now has just one healthy tackle on the roster, with Trent Williams officially done for the year. The 49ers are going to have to sign players to have any depth this weekend, which means Brock Purdy will be playing behind a line unfamiliar with one another. 

He’s also got fewer options to hand the ball off to. Injuries have reared their head at the running back position as well, with the 49ers averaging just 3.9 yards per carry in the last three games.

Detroit is tied at 13-2 with Minnesota and, therefore, must continue to go all out. Jared Goff looked good against the Bears this weekend, throwing three touchdowns in the win, and they’ve set a team record for scoring already as they close in on 500 points on the season.

The loss to the Dolphins officially eliminated the 49ers from playoff contention, and thus their motivation is gone. They’re reeling physically and mentally, and they’re going to be unable to protect Purdy any more than they could against Miami.

Detroit’s defense ranks third in the NFL over the past two games in dropback success rate and second in dropback EPA. San Fran won’t be able to run the ball enough to make a difference, and its defense will not be able to stop the Lions and their high-scoring attack.

I like the Lions to win this one by at least a touchdown, especially given they’ll want some revenge for last year’s playoffloss. 

Early Over/Under lean
Under 50.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

My analysis
The 49ers have scored just 23 points in their last two games, negating the hard work their defense put in. And while the Lions could cover this total by themselves — just ask the Jacksonville Jaguars — I think you’ll see this game go Under.

As we've already touched on, the Lions aren’t fully fit themselves. They’ll be keen to get an early lead here so they can rest some starters late in the game and ensure they’re not hurt themselves.

The 49ers defense is quite banged up as well, and they’re performing quite poorly in the red zone. Only two teams have given up a higher percentage of touchdowns on visits inside the 20. This means the Lions are likely to build a fairly big lead.

In addition, Goff isn’t turning the ball over. He’s thrown just one pick in his last six games compared to 17 touchdowns. He has no problem taking what a defense is giving him, and he’s more than capable of putting together long drives against a San Francisco defense ranked sixth in opponent points per play over the last three games.

On the other side, the 49ers rank 23rd in points per play in that same timeframe but have been getting worse each week. They’ve also got a kicker who has missed 10 of 19 attempts from 40+ yards this season, a key reason they've scored more than 17 points in just one of their last six games.

Detroit has scored at least 34 points in three straight games and will likely do so again here. It’s hard to see the 49ers keeping up their end of the scoring, which has me leaning slightly towards the Under. 

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