The now-infamous overtime loss to Las Vegas in Week 18 can serve as a stepping stone for the Los Angeles Chargers, entering Year 2 under head coach Brandon Staley.
It was a massively missed opportunity and has the potential to be a chip on the shoulder of this young and exciting team. That said, the Bolts’ floundering in the finale wasn’t a one-off. The Chargers botched spots against Houston and Denver and lost in OT to Kansas City in the weeks leading up to that season-ending result, perpetuating the culture of collapsing that has hung over this franchise for years.
The talent is there to flip the script in L.A. and get the Chargers to the postseason. Los Angeles’ stars rival those shining on the Hollywood Walk of Fame, with Justin Herbert at QB, pass rusher Joey Bosa, and Derwin James manning safety.
The Chargers’ NFL odds indicate a successful season, and some preseason projections have them as a Super Bowl or bust squad in 2022. We find out if the Bolts are positive or negative in our Los Angeles Chargers NFL betting preview.
Los Angeles Chargers futures odds
| Futures bet | Odds |
|---|---|
| To win Super Bowl | +1,000 |
| To win conference | +550 |
| To win division | +250 |
| Season Win Total O/U | 10.5 (Under -120) |
| To Make Playoffs | Yes -200 / No +175 |
Best futures bet: Win AFC West (+250)
The Chargers have been a popular pick to win a loaded AFC West this offseason, with the divisional price opening around +375 and slimming as low as +215 at some books.
By the time I get around to writing these team previews, the bulk of the futures value is gone. That said, getting the Bolts as big as you can right now sets up for a solid mid-season hedge on the Chiefs’ adjusted divisional odds.
Kansas City has one of the toughest opening schedules in the league, and it wouldn’t be a shocker to see KC sitting below .500 by the time a Week 8 bye rolls around (@ ARZ, vs. LAC, @ IND, @ TBY, vs. LV, vs. BUF, @ SF).
The Chargers have the chops to win this division on their own, but a play on them now and a bet on the Chiefs to win the AFC West midway through the year could set you up for profit, given Kansas City has a much softer second half to the schedule and the Bolts’ road gets rougher.
Los Angeles Chargers betting overview
What will win bets: Pass defense
Bosa went total John Wick as a one-man army in 2021, recording 10.5 sacks but also forcing seven fumbles, all the while drawing double teams from pass protections.
The Chargers added Khalil Mack on the other side, which forces opposing protectors to pick their poison. If Mack can stay healthy, he should also benefit from all the attention Bosa warrants. Those two pass rushers could have extra time to get to rival QBs considering the quality of the L.A. secondary.
Derwin James is a sideline-to-sideline superstar, and the addition of dangerous corner J.C. Jackson can nullify top receiving threats and leave passers as sitting ducks as they work through progressions.
This should cause a climb in chaos, better known as game-changing plays — sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions — which is something the Bolts were light on last season. If you look at the best bets from 2021, many of them also ranked near the top in takeaways.
What will lose bets: Run defense
It won’t matter how disruptive the pass defense is or how potent the scoring attack pans out if the Chargers can’t figure out how to stop gushing gains on the ground. Los Angeles finished 2021 watching foes own a 47.2% success rate on handoffs (worst in the NFL), which meant 4.6 yards per carry allowed.
That trickled down to rival teams constantly converting on third and fourth down, extending drives, siphoning all the gas from this Bolts defense, and keeping Herbert and the offense powerless on the sideline. The Chargers added some great pieces to the pass rush and secondary this offseason, but the defensive line didn’t receive the same love.
Early reports out of camp sound good, but we’ll know just where this run stop unit stands in Week 1 against the Raiders, who ran all over L.A. in that Week 18 finale (174 yards).
Los Angeles Chargers game-by-game odds
Lookahead lines vary on the Chargers, with the team set as a favorite between 11 and 13 games. L.A. is most notably showing up as underdogs in some “too close to call” contests that are a pick’em at one book and giving them the points at another (Week 10 at San Francisco and Week 18 at Denver).
Even the strength of schedule ratings can’t come to a consensus on the Chargers’ 2022 slate, sitting between 10th and 20th in strength of schedule. I’m leaning toward an uphill climb for the Bolts. They're not just facing the AFC West gauntlet and drawing the NFC West in non-conference play but also a series of sticky schedule spots, including three pairs of back-to-back road games.
The Bolts were 8-9 against the spread in Staley’s first season, starting the year 4-1 ATS before dragging bettors over a 4-8 ATS finish, capped by the Week 18 implosion against the Raiders. That mark includes a 4-7 ATS count as betting favorites, making the franchise just 20-28-1 ATS (42%) as the chalk since moving to L.A. in 2017.
| Week | Opponent | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs. Las Vegas | -3.5 | 52 |
| 2 | @ Kansas City | +3 | 53 |
| 3 | vs. Jacksonville | -9 | 49.5 |
| 4 | @ Houston | -8.5 | 47.5 |
| 5 | @Cleveland | -3.5 | 47.5 |
| 6 | vs. Denver | -3 | 48.5 |
| 7 | vs. Seattle | -9 | 47 |
| 8 | BYE | ||
| 9 | @ Atlanta | -7 | 49 |
| 10 | @ San Francisco | +1.5 | 48 |
| 11 | vs. Kansas City | -2.5 | 53 |
| 12 | @ Arizona | -2.5 | 51 |
| 13 | @ Las Vegas | PK | 52 |
| 14 | vs. Miami | -5.5 | 49 |
| 15 | vs. Tennessee | -4.5 | 49 |
| 16 | @ Indianapolis | +1.5 | 50 |
| 17 | vs. L.A. Rams | PK | 51 |
| 18 | @ Denver | +1.5 | 44 |
Los Angeles Chargers pro betting insights
Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)
Arguably the best roster in the entire NFL: Very good QB, good skill position players, good offensive line. Defense was the question, but Khalil Mack, Joseph Day, and J.C. Jackson were big upgrades. I believe in Brandon Staley as well.
Catch the Hitman NFL Release Show on Covers every Thursday and Friday throughout the NFL season!
Adam Chernoff, The Simple Handicap podcast (@adamchernoff)
Los Angeles Chargers early season forecast
The Bolts have been stewing on that loss in Las Vegas all offseason and get a chance to do some ghost-busting in Week 1, with books opening the Chargers as 4-point home faves and moving them down to -3.5 over the summer.
This total is a tall one, climbing from 51.5 to 52 points. Week 1 totals of 50+ have produced an 8-3 Over/Under count since 2016. A short week sends Los Angeles to Arrowhead Stadium for a primetime showdown on Thursday Night Football. The Chiefs are giving the visiting Bolts a field goal while another tall total tells the narrative of the AFC West, sitting at 53 points. The Chargers are 9-6 O/U in divisional road games since 2017.
The Bolts get a bit of a breather in Week 3, enjoying an extended break off TNF and a serious downtick in competition. The Jaguars cross the country, catching nine points from the host Chargers. Big faves didn’t mess around in 2021, with teams giving -9 or more going 33-23-3 ATS (58.5%) last season.
Los Angeles Chargers spot bet
Week 13: @ Las Vegas (PK)
The Bolts return to the scene of the crime in Week 13, and not only do the ghosts of Week 18 haunt them, but also a spooky schedule spot. That’s a big reason why we see this line at a pick’em instead of L.A. as short road chalk. The Chargers come off a bye in Week 8 and are immediately thrown into a road-heavy stretch, visiting Atlanta and San Francisco in Weeks 9 and 10.
Los Angeles will then come back home to host Kansas City in Week 11, then another pair of roadies at Arizona and Las Vegas. That makes this vital Week 13 divisional matchup against the Raiders not only the Chargers’ second of back-to-back away games, but their fourth road stop in the past five weeks.
Los Angeles Chargers totals tip
Los Angeles’ 2022 totals are supercharged, with seven at 50+ and four others at 49 or 49.5 points. The Bolts' offense is a big driving factor behind those lofty numbers, as Herbert has high hopes for Year 3 in an offense that pumped out almost 28 points per game in 2021.
Defensively, the Chargers have sold out on stopping the pass. The addition of Khalil Mack alongside Bosa has rival O-lines checking their jocks, and the secondary is super solid with James getting help from J.C. Jackson. The pass rush and coverage will be a symbiotic relationship that should feed off each other all season.
That said, the Chargers’ D did very little to plug the embarrassing number of gains getting grabbed on the ground. Los Angeles was among the worst run stop units in 2021, and the 2022 schedule sees some capable rushing attacks headed their way. The best way to stop Herbert & Co. is to park them on the sidelines, and playing keep-away with a steady stream of handoffs is a viable strategy if the Bolts can’t slow down the run.
The back half of the schedule features teams with good ground-and-pound and solid defenses. Los Angeles finished 10-7 O/U last year, playing Over the total in each of the season's final six games. I could see those totals results flipped in 2022.
Star power: Justin Herbert props
| Player prop | Odds |
|---|---|
| MVP | +900 |
| Most passing yards | +650 |
| Most passing TDs | +550 |
| Passing TD total | 36.5 (Over -110) |
| Passing yards total | 4,700.5 (Over -110) |
| Passing INT total | 13.5 (Over -110) |
Best prop: Over 36.5 touchdown passes (-110)
I’m not the biggest fan of the Chargers’ receivers, but I give Herbert the benefit of the doubt when lifting those targets to new heights. He threw for 31 touchdowns in his rookie year and 38 TDs last season, backed behind two large red-zone targets in Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, as well as the best pass-catching RB in the game.
Austin Ekeler reeled in eight balls for scores — tied for 16th among all players. Los Angeles produced the fifth-best RZ attack last year, scoring TDs on 64% of its trips inside the 20-yard line. If the early-bird totals are any indication, the Bolts are in for some shootouts in their six divisional games.
Herbert will thrive on consistency and growth under Joe Lombardi in 2022, after having swapped out offensive coordinators and systems in each of the past six seasons going back to his days at Oregon.
Los Angeles Chargers trend to know
Bad as favorites. Good as underdogs.
That’s been the Chargers’ calling card since moving to Los Angeles in 2017. The Bolts are especially profitable as road pups, posting a 14-6-3 ATS count in that role the previous five seasons, including a 3-1 ATS as road underdogs in 2021.
The Chargers bite biggest as short road dogs, going 7-3-2 ATS when getting a field goal or less on the road.
Chargers as road underdogs
- Week 2 @ Kansas City (+2)
- Week 10 @ San Francisco (+1.5)
- Week 16 @ Indianapolis (+1.5)
- Week 18 @ Denver (+1.5)
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the 2022 NFL season, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users can get a no-sweat first bet (up to $1,000) at FanDuel! Sign Up Now
B) New users can get a bonus (up to $1,000) on their first deposit at DraftKings! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only
