Matthew Stafford Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets for Thursday Night Football

The Minnesota Vikings hit the road to face the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium to kick off Week 8 on Thursday Night Football.

It’s been a tough year for the Rams offense, but my top NFL picks for Matthew Stafford's odds expect the Los Angeles quarterback to air it out against the susceptible Minny pass defense on Thursday, October 24.

Matthew Stafford TNF player prop picks

• Best bet
  Over 235.5 passing yards
  (-113 at FanDuel)
  
  
• SGP Pick
  Over 235.5 passing yards
  Under 1.5 passing TDs
  Under 47.5 first-quarter passing yards
  (+729 at FanDuel)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Matthew Stafford TNF prop pick

My best bet
Over 235.5 passing yards (-113 at FanDuel)

My analysis
No team allows more pass attempts (42.5) or completions (26.8) per game than the Vikings, and I expect Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford to have to attack through the air to keep pace with a Minny offense averaging 28.0 points per game.

Minnesota has also been excellent against the run, with the lowest EPA per rush allowed and third-highest run defense grade per PFF. It sets up the Rams offense to be looking at a lot of second- and third-and-long situations against the blitz-heavy Vikings. 

Interestingly, while the Vikes have a league-high 42.5% blitz rate and 31.0% pressure rate, Minny ranks 27th in pass rush grade per PFF. 

The Vikes have surrendered a healthy 285.3 passing yards per game, in addition to the already noted league-high marks in attempts and completions per game. Additionally, I see multiple paths to Stafford clearing this 235.5 passing-yard benchmark.

First, Minnesota takes a commanding lead, and Stafford pads his stat line chasing down the Vikings and/or in garbage time. Or, he plays well and keeps the game close to go Over the number. 

Plus, it’s a short turnaround for both teams, and Minny hits the highway in a potential letdown spot following a last-second loss to the divisional foe Detroit Lions in Week 7.

Of course, Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp (ankle) appearing set to return is a boost for Stafford, and the QB is also eyeing statistical correction with his yards per attempt, aDoT, adjusted completion percentage, and big-time-throw rate all trailing last year’s marks.

Matthew Stafford TNF same-game parlay

Over 235.5 passing yards

Under 1.5 passing touchdowns

Under 47.5 first-quarter passing yards

+729 at FanDuel

A pair of uncorrelated legs to round out this same-game parlay drive the odds way up, yet Stafford only has four touchdown passes through six games, and he sports the fourth-lowest adjusted EPA per play during the opening frame among all quarterbacks with at least 30 first-quarter snaps.

As discussed, I anticipate Stafford’s yardage coming while trailing late in the game. Plus, the Minnesota defense does pace the NFL in DVOA, and there’s always potential Stafford and the Rams only have the ball for a single series in the first quarter.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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