Best NFL Milestone Bets for Week 6: Kenneth Walker Cruises Past His Prop Overs

100+ rushing and receiving yards

The Seahawks head to Cincinnati this week rested off the bye. They could get two starters back on the offensive line and the +3 spread is giving some value to the Kenneth Walker odds as the game script is certainly priced into rushing props. 

Walker has at least 17 carries in three straight games and has averaged 4.4 yards per rush behind an injured O-line. He's also taken eight of his 64 carries for runs of 10 or more yards. With LT Charles Cross and RG Phil Haynes likely back, Walker will have an even better opportunity to crush his total yards market, where his 100-plus is paying +205 (one unit) and his 125+ is +500 (0.5 units).

I’m getting the total yards on this Milestone, as Walker is effective in the passing game. He entered Week 4 with 10 targets for eight catches and 73 yards before the game script kept him running the ball in Week 4 vs. the Giants. 

Pro Football Reference has a stat for rushing defenses referring to expected points contributed by the rushing defense. At the top are the Browns, unsurprisingly, and in 31st are the Bengals. They allow 154 rushing yards per game, which is only better than the Broncos. Their 5.3 yards per carry allowed is also a Bottom-3 mark. 

In a game that I can see the Seahawks winning outright (the line has moved from +3 to +2.5) with some possible windy conditions that favor a heavy workload, Walker is worth 1.5 units to crush his expected numbers.

Kenneth Walker prop: 100+ rushing and receiving yards (+205 at bet365, one unit), 125+ rushing and receiving yards (+500 at bet365, 0.5u)

100+ receiving yards

Cooper Kupp is back and took in 35% of the target share last week vs. the Eagles who got plenty of pressure on Matthew Stafford. Kupp still dominated. He led the Rams, in targets, catches, yards (112), and had the team’s longest play — a 39-yard reception. Puka Nacua also saw double-digit targets proving that there is enough volume here for both to succeed and that the rookie could even help Kupp’s production.

With the rust knocked off and a plus-plus matchup vs. the Cardinals and their injured secondary, The Cooper Kupp odds are worth a play at 100+ receiving yards at +145 (one unit), and another half-unit at 125+ receiving yards at +330. 

The Cards just gave up 192 receiving yards to Ja’Marr Chase and a QB who was struggling through four weeks. A lot of that had to do with an Arizona offense that was off the field quickly and a secondary missing two starters. 

Safety Budda Baker is out and the other starting safety in Jalen Thompson exited early last week. He was a DNP at practice on Thursday.

On the season, Arizona is allowing 198 yards per game to opposing receivers which is a Bottom-7 mark. Even as a TD favorite, there is plenty of time for Kupp to hit this Over before the Rams run out the clock, which they might not do. They rank 23rd in yards per rush and 28th in run rate% at 38%. Only four other teams pass at a higher rate than the Rams. 

With Stafford likely having all day to find Kupp as the Cards have the second-worst pressure rate in football, it’s going to be another 100+ yard day for the best possession receiver in football, who looks healthy. The indoor setting is the icing on the cake.

Cooper Kupp prop: 100+ receiving yards (+130 at bet365, one unit), 125+ receiving yards (+330 at bet365, 0.5u)

100+ rushing and receiving yards

Minnesota’s Alexander Mattison played 37 snaps to Cam Akers’ 21 last week and was the primary back. He had just eight carries but totaled 37 totes over the previous two weeks. Even with Akers taking four to six carries per game, the Vikings running back can do what five other RBs have done this year — have their best game of the year vs. the Bears from a fantasy perspective. 

In Week 3, Mattison had 93 yards on the ground vs. the Chargers, and he added another 32 in the air on seven targets. He followed that up with a 95-yard rushing performance in Week 4 vs. the Panthers, with another three yards on one catch.

After last week’s dud, bettors may be down on the runner. But with Justin Jefferson out, there could be more plays to go around. With the Vikes as a field-goal favorite in a game that could see double-digit winds, the script is also in the back’s favor.

The Alexander Mattison odds are paying a solid +320 to hit the century mark in total yards, which is something Aaron Jones (127 yards), Rachaad White (103 yards), and Jaleel McLaughlin (104 yards) have already done vs. the Bears this season.  

Alexander Mattison prop: 100+ rushing and receiving yards (+320 at bet365, one unit)