We've hit the books hard instead and spent all night looking into every NFL market in search of value and great numbers—so you don't have to!
Today, we’re throwing our money at a Seattle receiver again, taking a stab at some +1,300 action and finding a QB rushing prop we like.
We break down the best NFL team and player props and bring you our favorite free picks and predictions for Week 13
NFL Prop Picks for Sunday
Big-Play D.K.
Sometimes, the square bet is the right bet. Seattle’s D.K. Metcalf is one of the most talked-about players this season and bettors aren’t getting any deals when it comes to his receiving yards total. But Metcalf is proving to be matchup-proof as he’s topped his receiving yards total in eight of 11 matches this year.
On paper, Metcalf draws another tough corner this week in New York’s James Bradberry, who is one of the biggest corners in the league at 212 pounds and six-foot-one. Metcalf still has two inches and 20 pounds on him, plus he is much faster.
The Giants own the league’s No. 25 DVOA pass defense, per Football Outsiders, and last week Metcalf proved he gets up for games against teams’ best coverage corners.
PREDICTION: D.K. Metcalf Over 74.5 receiving yards (-110)
Banking on Booker
Devontae Booker relieved Raiders’ RB Josh Jacobs last week but managed just five yards on six carries in a blowout loss. Booker will receive the bulk of the workload against the Jets this weekend, but with a rushing total of 69.5 yards, we’re looking elsewhere to exploit this matchup.
The Jets are tied for the league lead in catches to opposing RBs through 11 games. On the year, running backs have averaged 6.6 catches for 41.7 yards on 8.2 targets per game.
If Booker can’t get things going on the ground, look for the Raiders to get the experienced receiving back the ball in the passing game.
PREDICTION: Devontae Booker Over 15.5 receiving yards (-113)
Longshot of the Week
We don’t want much to do with the Detroit offense, but with the news that the Lions are going to waive receiver Marvin Hall so they can better evaluate their younger guys (see: Quintez Cephus), it has our attention.
Hall saw 60 percent of the snaps last week, as opposed to Cephus’ 30 percent. If the reports out of Detroit are true, Cephus could be heading for a workload north of 50 percent. The young rookie doesn’t have many player prop markets available, but his anytime TD can be found for an unimaginable +1,300.
Chicago doesn’t allow many TDs to receivers (less than one a game), but at +1,300 we have to sprinkle a little on it.
PREDICTION: Quintez Cephus Over 0.5 TDs (+1,300)
Scootin’ Newton
The Los Angeles Chargers could be without their best linebacker in Denzel Perryman this week, as he is listed as doubtful. Rotoworld lists Perryman as one of the team’s best run-stoppers and sure tacklers. His loss is a big upgrade for the New England running game.
Unfortunately for the Pats, RB Damien Harris hasn’t topped 50 yards rushing over his last two games as this offense has had trouble sustaining drives. They have also trailed at the half in their two most recent matches and seemed to forget about Harris in catch-up mode.
Cam Newton has something to prove after last week’s dud. We aren’t putting any dollars on his arm, but with the Chargers likely starting Malik Jefferson (three career tackles in two-plus seasons) at SAM and not having a Top-50 linebacker on the field per Pro Football Focus, we might trust Cam’s legs.
If Newton can avoid Joey Bosa, there could be some field to take off, as his confidence in his passing ability can’t be doing well after Week 12.
Newton has rushed nine times or more in four of his past five games and his practice routine this week (limited) doesn’t scare us.
PREDICTION: Cam Newton Over 43.5 rushing yards (-110)
NFL Prop Picks for Saturday
Miracle Firkser
The Tennessee Titans will be without the services of TE Jonnu Smith this week against the Browns, who are giving up 5.7 catches for 56 yards and 0.72 TDs per game to opposing TEs this year. Smith has seven scores through 11 games and leads his team in red-zone targets.
Anthony Firkser will take Smith’s place Sunday, and although the backup TE is not a well-known name, Firkser was a trusted receiver in his only other time filling in for Smith this season. Firkser tallied eight catches, 113 yards and a TD in an early October game that Smith exited in the first half. Ryan Tannehill targeted the TE often, as his nine targets were 22% of the team’s target share.
With Derrick Henry stealing the defense’s attention, Firkser could fly under the radar, especially with the week’s highest-total game.
PREDICTION: Anthony Firkser Over 0.5 TDs (+425)
Spark Ruggs
The Raiders venture to the Meadowlands to take on the NFL’s whipping boys, the New York Jets this Sunday. Las Vegas won’t be sending its best offensive weapons either, as RB Josh Jacobs has been ruled out and WR Nelson Agholor is questionable.
Agholor leads the team in air yards this year and his absence could open the door for rookie WR Henry Ruggs to be a focal point of the offense. The 12th-overall pick this year, Ruggs owns 4.27 speed which PFF has as the fastest receiver in the league. His speed has helped him haul in 18.4 yards per catch in his first year in the NFL.
We’re getting ahead of the curve and committing to a great total on Ruggs’ receiving yards. This number will likely go up if Agholor doesn’t suit up.
PREDICTION: Henry Ruggs Over 29.5 receiving yards (-110)
The Unstoppable Hill
With 4.29 speed, Tyreek Hill has a huge advantage over Denver SLB Essang Bassey and his 4.46 wheels. PFF has Hill’s matchup as the second-most favorable for WRs this week.
Bassey has been in the giving spirit to opposing wide receivers this year, sporting an 86% catch rate. To put that into perspective, the rookie corner has allowed 24 receptions on 28 passes this season and now has to square up against the hottest receiver in all of football.
Hill’s reception total of 74.5 yards is tempting, but we are afraid that the Broncos won’t be able to keep pace with the Chiefs, forcing KC to dial it back in the passing game. So instead, we are taking the Over 25.5 yards for his longest reception, a prop he is 3-1 O/U in his last four.
PREDICTION: Tyreek Hill Over 25.5 yards longest reception (-120)
Volume > Talent
The Giants will be starting QB Colt McCoy this weekend against the Seahawks. With a bottom-15 running game and likely playing from behind all day, McCoy could find himself passing more than he ever has (well maybe not more than his career-high of 61 pass attempts).
Sometimes volume is more valuable than talent, and that could be the case with a McCoy-led offense in Week 13.
New York WR Sterling Shepard has averaged a team-high eight targets a game since his return from injury in Week 7, and the receiver hasn’t had less than six catches in five straight contests. The drop at QB from Daniel Jones to McCoy is huge, but the books have downgraded all the Giants’ offensive players, so there is some value to be had here.
McCoy threw 10 passes last week in his relief of Jones, with four of those going to Shepard — three catches for 28 yards. PFF grades Shepard with a positive WR/CB matchup against Seattle’s Shaq Griffin, who has allowed 31 catches on 48 passes this year.
With a modest total of 46.5 receiving yards — a total the receiver has topped in four of his last five games — we’re rolling the dice on volume in what could be a heavy dose of passing from the G-men.
PREDICTION: Sterling Shepard Over 46.5 receiving yards (-115)
NFL Prop Picks for Friday
Time to Pack It in
In all honesty, 213 passing yards isn’t a lot. Even Sam Darnold’s passing total last week was 226.5 yards. But for Cincinnati QB Brandon Allen, it could be a tough task against a Miami Dolphins defense that is holding opposing QBs to 205 passing yards over its last three games.
In his first start this year, Allen threw 29 passes against the Giants’ 25th rank pass defense and completed 17 passes for 136 yards, which was good for 4.7 yards per pass. Again, for comparison, Darnold’s yards per pass this year is 5.7—which is dead-last in the league.
The Bengals also had a limited amount of time on the field as the G-men had the ball for more than 37 minutes and ran 34 more plays than Allen’s offense.
In his four NFL starts, the 2016 sixth-round pick has topped 200 yards just once. We’re really fading the Bengals this week.
PREDICTION: Brandon Allen Under 212.5 passing yards (-115)
Screening the King
Even after his 178-yard rushing game last week, Derrick Henry’s coach, Mike Vrabel, said he wants his back more involved in the passing game. The Titans’ coach told reporters on Thursday that they would like to continue to work on the screen game with him. Getting King Henry more touches is a scary thing for the NFL.
The league’s leading rusher is only averaging 2.4 targets a game but with a receiving total of just 6.5 yards, that could be a one-and-done for the big back.
Cleveland is neither good against the run nor the pass and is allowing 4.7 catches and 38 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs this season.
Taking the league’s best RB for seven receiving yards seems like a no-brainer, considering he has been getting the rock 29 times a game since Week 11.
PREDICTION: Derrick Henry Over 6.5 receiving yards (-120)
A Sad Golladay in Detroit
Detroit WR Kenny Golladay missed practice Thursday and the receiver is in danger of missing his fourth straight game. There is a case to be made that the fifth-year receiver is the most important player on the Lions.
In the four games he's started (and completed) this year, the NFC North’s last-place team went 3-1 SU and averaged 28 points per game. But things take a drastic turn without Golladay: The Lions are 1-6 SU and average 20 points without their star receiver.
We aren’t condoning a bet on the Bears, even though they are holding opponents to 19 points per game at home this year and have the No. 4 DVOA defense per Football Outsiders. Luckily for us, we can bet against the Lions without putting our dollars on that hot mess in Chicago.
PREDICTION: Detroit Lions team total Under 20.5 (-115)
Picking a Tag Team
We’re getting creative on Friday and hopefully offering a play that most players’ books offer. All you need is to be able to parlay player props and have your book offer player interceptions. The rest will hopefully just play out in our favor.
QB interceptions are great player prop bets but can be quite expensive if you want to fade a bad quarterback. For example, the Raiders have six interceptions as a defense since Week 10 and face Sam Darnold—the Jets’ QB has eight interceptions in seven starts but is paying just -244 on the Over 0.5 INTs.
If we pair that with the most-intercepted QB in the NFL, Carson Wentz, we can push that payout to +116. Wentz has thrown two picks in six of his 11 games this year and has just two games without passing the ball to the other team. Wentz and Darnold are the only two starters in Week 13 who are averaging more than one interception per game this season.
PREDICTION: Sam Darnold Over 0.5 INT and Carson Wentz Over 0.5 INT (+116)
NFL Prop Picks for Thursday
Bottom-Feeding Cincy
In their first week without QB Joe Burrow, the Bengals put up 17 points and came up short on their team total of 17.5. Looking at the box score shows a team that was lucky to even hit double digits, to be fair.
They managed to score two TDs, but one was a 103-yard kickoff return and the other was in the game's final three minutes.
Cincinnati started Brandon Allen at QB, and he led the offense to an anemic 3.4 yards per play and only ran 46 plays to the Giants' 80. The Giants own a bottom-10 defense for reference.
This week, they play the Dolphins and their No. 9 DVOA pass defense per Football Outsiders. Miami is also holding opposing QBs to the third-lowest QBR this season. Over the last three weeks, teams are scoring just 14.7 points per game against the Dolphins.
PREDICTION: Cincinnati Bengals team total Under 14.5 (-120)
Two Wins from Las Vegas
To say the Raiders didn’t show up in Week 12 would be obvious. They got thumped 43-6 by the Falcons thanks to five turnovers and 141-yards in penalties. This week, they will get to take out their anger on the winless Jets, who have additionally lost the first half in nine of 11 games.
The Raiders are eight-point road favorites but are a reasonable -132 to win the first half and the game — also known as the double result. The Jets have covered three of their last five games and the double result is a perfect bet for wagerers who don’t like the eight points.
Sam Darnold finally had all his receivers last week and still only managed three points. He ranks dead-last in QBR and the Jets are scoring just seven points in the first half this year, which is also good for last in the league.
PREDICTION: Double result: Las Vegas — Las Vegas (-134)
Taking the Titans’ Team Total
The Titans ran over the Colts for the AFC South division lead last week and will get another soft defense this week as the Cleveland Browns visit Tennessee. The Browns are only allowing 18 points per game at home, but on the road, it’s a different story.
No team is conceding more points on the road this season than Cleveland, as their 34.6 points per game paces the league. Their five road games weren’t even against elite offenses: BAL, DAL, PIT, CIN and JAX— none of which are currently top-14 DVOA offenses.
Cleveland got gashed for 5.6 yards per carry last week against the Jaguars and will likely be without two starting defensive backs in Denzel Ward and Ronnie Harrison. These two add to an already-extensive list of injured defensive players for the Browns, who will be susceptible to the deep ball if they gameplan to stop Derrick Henry.
PREDICTION: Tennessee Titans team total Over 29.5 points (-115)
Nothing Given from NOLA
The New Orleans defense has been an unstoppable force over the last month. It has given up just one TD over its last 16 quarters. They really have no choice but to play lights-out defense with Taysom Hill under center.
The Saints will get to play a familiar opponent in the Atlanta Falcons this Sunday, and NOLA has already walked away with a 24-9 win against ATL just two weeks ago. It won’t be easy for an Atlanta offense to march down the field against a team that's allowing 3.8 yards per play of late, and possibly without Julio Jones and with a banged-up Todd Gurley.
The league’s No. 5 DVOA defense (and climbing) hasn’t allowed more than 13 points since Week 8 and has found its identity and best path for a successful playoff push. The Falcons could also be still patting themselves on the back after last week’s 43-6 against the Raiders.
We are betting on what could be the No. 1 defense by the season’s end.
PREDICTION: Atlanta Falcons team total Under 21.5 (-110)
Year-to-date record: 129-96 (57 percent)
NFL Week 13 Prop Betting Card
- D.K. Metcalf Over 74.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Devontae Booker Over 15.5 receiving yards (-113)
- Quintez Cephus Over 0.5 TDs (+1,300)
- Cam Newton Over 43.5 rushing yards (-110)
- -
- Anthony Firkser Over 0.5 TDs (+425)
- Henry Ruggs Over 0.5 TDs (+230)
- Tyreek Hill Over 25.5 yards longest reception (-120)
- Sterling Shepard Over 46.5 receiving yards (-115)
- -
- Brandon Allen Under 212.5 passing yards (-115)
- Derrick Henry Over 6.5 receiving yards (-120)
- Detroit Lions team total Under 20.5 (-115)
- Sam Darnold Over 0.5 INT and Carson Wentz Over 0.5 INT (+116)
- -
- Cincinnati Bengals team total Under 14.5 (-120)
- Double result: Las Vegas — Las Vegas (-134)
- Tennessee Titans team total Over 29.5 points (-115)
- Atlanta Falcons team total Under 21.5 (-110)
Where Can I Find NFL Player Props?
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