The presents have been opened and now it’s time to sit, relax and enjoy a holiday weekend of NFL Football. We’ve hit the books hard this week, looking into every NFL market in search of value and great numbers—so you don't have to!
Today, we’ve found a great correlation stack play in Baltimore, are finding value in a one-man backfield and are getting a great number on a backup RB with one of the league’s best offenses.
We break down the best NFL team and player props and bring you our favorite free picks and predictions for Week 16.
Be safe and happy holidays!
NFL Prop Picks for Sunday
There’s No Place Like Jones
Packers RB Jamaal Williams has been slapped with the doubtful tag for Sunday’s tilt against the Titans. Williams has averaged between 8-10 touches per game when splitting time with Aaron Jones. With Williams likely out, Jones should absorb some of those touches in a game that has the highest total since Week 12.
On the year, the Titans’ No. 28-ranked defense is allowing just 114 rushing yards per game (92 yards to RBs), but much of that is due to teams’ gameplans. The Titans have one of the softest pass defenses in the league, so teams have been passing more frequently against Tennessee. Opposing RBs are rushing just 21 times per game against the Titans but at a clip of 4.4 yards, it ranks them in the bottom half of the league in YPC.
Tennessee is also giving up a healthy 40 receiving yards per game to opposing backs on five receptions. They have surrendered 17 total TDs to RBs in 2020 and are the seventh-most generous defense to running backs in fantasy.
Jones could get all the looks in a game that could hit 70-80 points. We're passing on the receiving total but love the rushing total of 67.5 yards one week after a 145-yard rushing performance.
PREDICTION: Aaron Jones Over 67.5 rushing yards (-110)
Johnson Candy
The Houston Texans may be eliminated from the playoffs but that doesn’t mean we can’t trust them with our money. Running back Duke Johnson will miss Week 16 against the Bengals, with fellow RB David Johnson expected to have another big workload on Sunday.
Without Duke last week, David soaked up 11 targets in the passing game, which he turned into 11 catches for 106 yards. Of course, the Texans trailed all game, meaning the latter Johnson had a bigger role in the passing game. This week, against the Bengals we don’t expect the Texans to be playing catch-up all game, but at a modest 26.5 receiving total, we can’t say no to the Over.
QB Deshaun Watson is throwing for nearly 300 yards per game on the year and the Bengals allowed Pittsburgh RB Benny Snell to top his receiving yard total a week ago.
PREDICTION: David Johnson Over 26.5 receiving yards (-112)
Santa's Slayton
This one has a lot of moving parts and makes us feel like Charlie in the mailroom in "It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia." Try to follow the trail to Pepe Silvia.
Ravens’ CB Jimmy Smith is out this week against the Giants and fellow outside corner Marcus Peters is doubtful. Corner Marlon Humphrey plays most of his snaps in the slot but could bump outside with both Smith and Peters likely out.
The Giants’ passing game has been dirt poor of late, but if Daniel Jones can suit up, it will be a huge upgrade over Colt McCoy. Jones was limited in practice this week and has a good shot of playing in a must-win game for the G-men.
The Giants will be without receiver Golden Tate (calf) on Sunday, leaving fewer mouths to feed in the passing game. If Humphrey goes to the outside, he should see more of WR Sterling Shepard on the left side, leaving WR Darius Slayton against the weaker CB Anthony Averett, who has allowed 23 receptions on 30 passes this year.
Slayton led the team in yards a week ago with 74 yards on four grabs with McCoy throwing passes. Slayton leads the team in receiving yards on the year and is averaging over 50 yards a game. We like his Over of 36.5 yards slightly more than Shepard’s 48.5.
This play is a great correlation stack with our Baltimore 1H -6 play that was posted earlier in the week.
PREDICTION: Darius Slayton Over 36.5 receiving yards (-112)
Speak of the Darrel
With the injury to rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire, the first-place Chiefs are suddenly very thin at the running back position. Le’Veon Bell will be the primary ball-carrier this week against the Falcons, but we wouldn’t be surprised if RB Darrel Williams was more involved in order to keep Bell fresh for the playoffs, in case CEH can’t make it back.
The Falcons have played opposing running backs well all year and are one of only two teams that have yet to concede 1,000 yards on the ground to opposing RBs. They did give up two TDs on the ground last week, however, and are averaging 1.3 rushing TDs allowed per game on the road this year.
Bell has just 11 red-zone rushes on the year, which have translated to a single TD. No KC back has seen more than 16 carries in a game since Week 6. Other than Bell, Williams is the only back on the depth chart that has a rushing attempt since Week 8. At +450, we're taking a stab with the league’s best offense and hope the Chiefs run up the score and lean on Williams, keeping Bell healthy for a Super Bowl run.
PREDICTION: Darrel Williams anytime TD scorer (+450)
NFL Prop Picks for Saturday
Reeking Raiders
Desperation is a stinky cologne and the Las Vegas Raiders reek of it. Somehow Derek Carr is preparing to start Saturday against the Dolphins after pulling his groin a week ago.
Las Vegas has dropped four of its last five games and at 7-7, has a 1% chance to make the playoffs. If Carr is not near 100%, Miami’s defense could make him pay as they have been tough all year on opposing QBs with the league’s third-lowest QB rating at 85.3.
The once-dominant Vegas rushing game has also hit a wall in recent weeks as its running backs are averaging 3.2 yards per carry over the last two games. Josh Jacobs has topped 80 yards on the ground just once in his last six matches.
The Raiders are also banged up in the secondary, which could mean less time for Carr and the offense with the ball. Only one team has scored more than 21 points against the Dolphins over their last six games.
PREDICTION: Las Vegas Raiders team total Under 22.5 (-105)
Just a Little of Kittle
The San Francisco 49ers will get star tight end George Kittle back this week after the TE missed the previous six games. Coach Kyle Shanahan hinted that Kittle could be on a pitch count as there is no reason for the team to push him with San Fran eliminated for the playoffs.
Averaging 79 yards per game, the TE has actually hit the Under in three of his six games, not hitting 50 yards in any of the Unders. The Cardinals have been one of the better teams against opposing TEs allowing just 46 yards per game.
If Shanahan does take it easy with Kittle, as his health for next year is more important for the success of the 49ers, the Under on his receiving total could be a lay-up. The best-case scenario is Kittle plays a few series to get some reps and then becomes a spectator.
PREDICTION: George Kittle Under 51.5 receiving yards (-112)
Data Montgomery
The Jaguars are looking for the No. 1 pick in the upcoming draft and playing like a team that deserves it. Over the last three weeks, they have lost by a combined score of 98-48. In those three defeats, the 1-13 Jaguars have allowed an absurd 553 rushing yards, good for a 184.3 yards per game average. This week, the Jags’ soft defense will face one of the league’s hottest running backs in Chicago’s David Montgomery.
The Bears’ RB has amassed 434 yards on the ground over the last four weeks, which is the second-most in the league only behind Derrick Henry. His 6.1 yards per carry over that stretch also has Monty near the top of the leaderboards in YPC.
Montgomery is 4-0 O/U on his rushing total over since Week 12 and has a great matchup to make it five in a row on Sunday. This week’s total of 80.5 is the highest the RB has seen all year, but with a positive game script likely following the Bears, an 18-22 rush attempt game is bankable after rushing 32 times last week.
PREDICTION: David Montgomery Over 80.5 rushing yards (-115)
NFL Prop Picks for Friday
Ravens Returning Profits
The Baltimore Ravens look to have things headed in the right direction as they try to beat a pair of sub-500 teams in the final weeks of the 2020 season to secure a playoff spot. On the year, the Ravens are 8-6 ATS but Baltimore has really made bank in the first half, where it is a league-best 11-3 ATS.
If you had been betting the Ravens’ first-half spread each week, you would’ve increased your investment by 48 percent. Their MO is to get the lead early and wear you down with physical defending and a relentless rushing attack.
Scoring 16.3 points per first half, only one other team is scoring more points in the game’s first 30 minutes than Lamar Jackson’s offense.
Facing a Giants team that has managed a whopping 13 points (one TD) over its last eight quarters, Baltimore is in a great spot to pick up its 12th 1H ATS win on Sunday.
PREDICTION: Baltimore Ravens first half -6.5 (-120)
Not in Minnesota Anymore
At home this year, Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins has shined, averaging 280-plus passing yards and 2.75 TDs per game. Unfortunately for him and the Vikings, Cousins has turned into Colt McCoy on the road, averaging 216 passing yards and 1.2 TDs per game. Those splits are significant considering the Vikings are rolling into NOLA on Friday to face the Saints’ No. 2 DVOA defense, per Football Outsiders.
New Orleans is one of five teams allowing 210 passing yards or less to opposing QBs this year and held Patrick Mahomes to 254 passing yards last week.
Cousins has failed to hit 250 passing yards in three of his last four road games as his Jekyll-and-Hyde splits have hurt the Vikings this year. The Minny QB has also not faced a Top 5 pass defense this year.
PREDICTION: Kirk Cousins Under 252.5 passing yards (-112)
The Resurgence of the Bears
Don’t look now, but Mitch Trubisky and the Bears have topped their team total in four straight games. Since Big Mitch has taken over the offense again, the Bears are averaging 31 points per game.
Running back David Montgomery is running to the tune of 6.1 yards per carry since Week 12, while Allen Robinson is leading the receivers with nearly 90 yards per game. This offense is hitting on all cylinders and gets to run wild against a Jacksonville team that has been allowing 184.3 rushing yards per game since Week 13.
Jacksonville is a mess and is in play for the first overall pick in the daft as they have dropped 13 straight games. The Jaguars are thinking of making their fourth QB change this year, which means that the offense stinks and could be giving the Bears good field position all game.
PREDICTION: Chicago Bears team total Over 27.5 (-112)
Year to date record: 155-119 (57 percent)
NFL Week 16 Prop Betting Card
- Aaron Jones Over 67.5 rushing yards (-110)
- David Johnson Over 26.5 receiving yards (-112)
- Darius Slayton Over 36.5 receiving yards (-112)
- Darrel Williams anytime TD scorer (+450)
- -
- Las Vegas Raiders team total Under 22.5 (-105)
- George Kittle Under 51.5 receiving yards (-112)
- David Montgomery Over 80.5 rushing yards (-115)
- -
- Baltimore Ravens first half -6.5 (-120)
- Kirk Cousins Under 252.5 passing yards (-112)
- Chicago Bears team total Over 27.5 (-112)
Where Can I Find NFL Player Props?
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